How much would it cost to single handedly fix climate change? Because it would be around that number.
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The second caveat is tricky. Assuming I can get around the donation issue with some sort of legal trickeration the question becomes “how much money would have to be donated to progressive causes to offset the ‘bad’ that Tucker Carlson does in one year” and I’ve got to think that number is many millions. I’d do it if I made enough money to pay off the debts for all the ‘felons’ in Florida. I’ve gotta think those additional voters would offset the damage of a year of Tucker. Isn’t it something like $1.5B?
I personally wouldn’t do it, but (assuming you are not deplorable or adjacent) I think there is a kind of privilege associated with turning it down, even for the value of Tucker’s current contract.
No, I’m trying to estimate the CFR for current cases, so that I can then estimate future deaths based on current cases. The cumulative CFR (4.4%) isn’t useful for making that prediction.
Florida is seeing >1% CFR on a 2 week lag, and the average age has been skyrocketing during the course of the lag, so 1% is definitely way low.
I think your 2-3% guess is correct.
Have you heard him talk? His play is that he’s dumb as a sack of rocks and loves daddy Trump.
I fell for the Hawley idea until I actually saw his affect. In one context he looks like the school bully from a movie like IT. Then it quickly shifts to the look of him being bullied by his father. Good voice + weird affect + horrific policies will be seen through. He’d get plenty of votes to be competitive, but a lot of people would be creeped out by him meaning he’d have a really hard time winning. Consultants would have to basically crush his affect for him to have a legit shot (not impossible).
This is Florida CFR using lags of various periods.
So 2-3% fits well with the 14-day and 21-day lags.
Also, to be clear, this describes my dumb ass:
Keep on keepin’ on.
There has been some discussion about whether posters are “cheering” for outcomes, or whether we are fixating too much on short term hurdles and time horizons.
We obviously should never cheer for (bad) outcomes, but I think our fixation on short term outcomes is extremely useful. We are hypothesizing what will happen next based on all available information sources, and when we are proven correct or incorrect we are reviewing the validity of our current assumptions. As such, this forum has an absurdly more robust understanding of this thing than almost all other sources. We can quickly discredit nonsensical predictions or weird outliers. We can use trends to understand what works for keeping ourselves safe.
Seriously, this forum has been a lifesaver. Maybe literally.
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Yeah it’s really hard to overstate how helpful really understanding what’s going on has been in this environment. I have a business to operate that it has recently been pointed out to me has a significant trading aspect. My mental health wouldn’t even be better not knowing.
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What happens if you add 35 days as a variable?
You don’t happen to write NDAs for Trump, do you?
What happens if you compare current deaths to cases from 35 days ago? You get a much higher CFR. But unless you have good reason to believe that, medically, the average lag between positive test and death is that long, you’re biasing the number upwards because there’s been such a large increase in new cases.
No, I mean for your projections, not trying to calculate a CFR. I think the death lag is probably closer to 3-5 weeks than 2-4 due to the age and health of that wave of infections. I could be wrong obviously.
Breaking: Governor Newsom is expected to announce that all California elementary and high schools must be online in the fall. No in person classes allowed. Press conference at noon.
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If I calculate a “current CFR” based as (7DMA deaths)/(7DMA cases as of 35 days ago) at the state level, apply that CFR to that state’s current 7DMA cases, and aggregate to the U.S., I get an estimated daily range of 2,259-3,148 deaths (presumably 35 days from now).
I think that’s much too high because of the overstated current CFR estimate, but we’ll see.
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Yeah, but did he topple over any statues?
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That is smart
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Why is current cfr overstated?
It includes ALL known cases but only SOME of the deaths.
If the virus disappeared tomorrow then cases would stay the same but deaths would keep going up due to the 4-5 week death lag, so would only climb.
That’s why states that have had a huge explosion in cases recently have lower CFR while ones without a big recent explosion have higher CFR much closer to true CFR
CFR = deaths/known cases
Known cases is done for today but deaths will keep going from those known cases so as numerator increases while denominator stays the same, CFR will increase
Thus current CFR for an area is understated, not overstated.
The more recent cases the area has, the more understated CFR currently is
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Atlanta, Dekalb, Cobb and Fulton going fully remote to start the year as of yesterday.
Hopefully Gwinnett and Forsyth and Cherokee follow soon.