I woulda thought that at least some $ amount Lenders would do a quick check on taxes or something to verify some information. I would love to know the logistics of how this was actually pulled off. Make up a bunch of fraudulent payroll docs and no one confirms anything for $9 million?
If you have a tax ID number you can apply. Cooking up some fraudulent payroll / tax records is pretty easy. Voila!
Have they always been that low or is it that low now because they’ve doubled/tripled or more their death totals recently without a ton of deaths?
1point3acres is just a snapshot so can’t easily tell.
Like today Florida is at 316k cases and 4700 deaths (1.5%) but maybe 2 weeks ago it was 100k cases and 3000 deaths (3%) so it’s just the lag in deaths from cases after a huge case increase rather than hiding deaths. Need to look back to see.
Yeah getting a bunch of fraudulent loans might’ve actually been easier with regard to paperwork than getting one legit one. Just fill in the blanks, repeat, and profit.
I think the better way to calculate it is something like:
Total deaths today/Total cases a month ago
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Not only do you have extremely limited options for tolerable non-extradition countries, you also can’t leave them. Like living in Andorra might be kinda cool, but you couldn’t travel more than a couple miles in any direction without risking arrest.
Yeah, that better accounts for the lag
So instead of playing around with things in Excel, I’ve been directly importing data in Stata so at least I can plausibly say I’m maintaining my programming skills. A lot of this stuff is very easy to automate and can be done at the aggregate U.S. level as well as state levels.
Based on some playing around with aggregate U.S. data, I’m upping my estimated August daily deaths back up to 1,500-2,000. Basically what I’m doing is calculating rolling daily CFRs as (7day average deaths)/(7day average cases from 21 or 28 days ago). Then I’m multiplying the current average daily cases number by the min/max of the daily CFR for the last 7 days (to try to account for noise in that CFR number).
Based on a 7day case count of about 64,000 that gives me predicted daily deaths (using min and max CFR estimates) of:
(1,399-1,749) using the 21-day lag number
(1,932-2,196) using the 28-day lag number
Next, I’m going to do the same thing by state, and then aggregate state-level predicted numbers to see how close the aggregated number comes to the above.
Edit: If I do it at the state level, I get:
(1,263-1,846) using the 21-day lag number
(1,860-2,488) using the 28-day lag number
So if you’re interested in the best estimated number one month out or so, it’s really important to figure out the most appropriate estimated lag between positive cases and deaths.
Actual Stata Code
import delimited “https://covidtracking.com/api/v1/states/daily.csv”, clear
todate date, gen(date2) p(yyyymmdd) f(%dd_m_cy)
encode state, gen(states)
tsset states date2/** Create daily numbers and 7-day averages for both positives and deaths **/
foreach x in positive death {
gen daily_x'=D1.x’
tsegenx'_7da=rowmean(L(0/6).daily_x’, 7)
}order states date2 daily_* *_7da positive death
/****** Now some CFRs ******/
gen cum_cfr_cum=death/positive
gen ma_cfr_cum=death_7da/positive_7daforeach x in 7 14 21 28 {
gen cum_cfr_lagx'=death/Lx’.positive
gen ma_cfr_lagx'=death_7da/Lx’.positive_7da
}/** Plots the CFRs with different lags over time **/
twoway (tsline ma_cfr_lag21 ma_cfr_lag28 if date2>=d(15May2020)) if inlist(state,“FL”,“GA”,“AZ”,“OH”,“NY”), by(state, yrescale)
/** Now calculate min and max CFR over rolling 7 day windows **/
foreach x in 21 28 {
tsegen cfr_x'_min=rowmin(L(0/6).ma_cfr_lagx’, 7)
tsegen cfr_x'_max=rowmax(L(0/6).ma_cfr_lagx’, 7)
gen predicted_deaths_high_x'=positive_7da*cfr_x’max
gen predicted_deaths_lowx'=positive_7da*cfr_x’_min
}/******* Now collapse those predicted deaths to get estimated U.S. numbers ***/
collapse (rawsum) positive_7da death_7da predicted_deaths_, by(date2)
tsset date2list date2 positive_7da death_7da predicted_deaths* if _n==_N
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I stopped reading at vow renewal.
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At which point China should troll the shit out of us by calling it “the American virus”.
But what about STONKS?
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Banger
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It’s a lie. Stonks is the economy.
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Have to be at least 50,000,000
https://mobile.twitter.com/KimNBCLA/status/1283944191723110400
Ok wow I just want to reiterate this is not me. First off my hair is longer, uh I don’t wear glasses although I guess that could be part of his disguise, ages are off by a couple years, the kn95 masks I use are slightly different looking and I would never play slot machines.
Anyways, this is actually my last post on this forum before I move to Cranada to become an ocean spray dynamics researcher and I have some fruit to sell before I go, if anyone is interested DM me for discounted bulk pricing
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Ohio’s cfr right now is 4.4% and some % of the active will die which would increase it.
You may be thinking IFR which is more like 1%
“Bring out yer dead!” The shrill words of the corpse-crier chilled the autumn air, hanging over the crowd with a persistence that belied their gravity.
Gathered obediently around the Death Theater, legions of onlookers waited in anticipation. A dark and withered figure took the stage, hunched over a rusted wheelbarrow overloaded with a dismembered chaos of flesh and bone.
“My two sons,” she sobbed. “This is all that was left after the car accident.”
The corpse-crier took his cue. “Were they wearing their seatbelts?”
“No,” the woman whispered, despairingly, her face downcast against the flickering shadows.
A silence crescendoed as the crowd drew breath in unison, then exploded. “FUCKING IDIOTS” the onlookers roared, their disdain palpable in the evening air.
Not a single coin was thrown, and the woman withered closer to nothing as she fled the stage - the sound of her racking sobs drowned by the aural violence of the frothing crowd.
A second figure climbed the stage, a pale matron followed by four men, dragging behind them a gold-enameled wagon of remarkable craftsmanship. Atop the wagon bed, a pair of silk-enfolded corpses lay in carefully-arranged repose.
“How did they die?” The corpse-crier asked.
“They died of the pandemic.”
“Were they wearing their masks?”
“No.” The pale matron’s eyes flared with pride and defiance.
This time, the silence vacated by the indrawn breath of the crowd was replaced by a collective ecstasy. “FUCKING PATRIOOOOTSSSS” they screamed, and a storm of silver and gold coins rained down on the stage.
The chants continued as the woman and her bodyguards piled the coins atop the corpses. “THEY DIED FOR US. THEY DIED FOR US. THEY DIED FOR UUUUUUSSSSS!”
All around them, lurking patiently in the broken shadows of a once-proud city, the crows cackled their agreement.
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Here’s another one I was pondering. You have to be Tucker Carlson for a year. Some specifics for the angle shooters:
-You do his show every day with the same content. You must give maximum effort at all times to advance the views that Carlson does.
-You have to openly pretend to hold his views when you’re off the set (i.e., You can still vote D, you just can’t tell anyone. However donating to Bernie would be off limits as contributions can be traced to you). You have to maintain the Tucker Carlson image at all times
-After a year you go back to your old life. You can not comment to anyone about your time on the show or say anything negative about your time there, anyone you worked with, Tucker himself, etc.
-You can’t do anything that would involve you publicly espousing contrary opinions. You can’t run for office, work for campaign, have a podcast about politics, write a tell-all novel, etc. Even publicly speaking about your new views is forbidden. Anything that might trigger an article along the lines of “Former Fox News anchor is BLM supporter” would be a violation.
-If you don’t adhere to the terms you return the money you were paid plus interest. Debt can’t be discharged by bankruptcy. Your assets will be seized and wages will be garnished until you have made the repayment.
So, how much would it take?