COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

What do we know about what other species can contract it? Spread species to species? Human to animal or animal to human? I’m going to try to answer my own questions by saying “not enough.”

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/pets.html

Ok after googling, CDC seems to say that animals can get it but it’s not likely. Basically what I’m getting from these links is that we don’t know that much, so use common sense precautions. I’m going to make a wild guess that testing pets and wild animals isn’t the most robust.

This is a really long twitter thread but it covers the details of a story the Miami Herald ran about the Cruise Ship Industry.

Over 100,000 crew members are stuck on boats, unable to go home and many not being paid. One cruise line was charging stuck crew members for water and soap until recently. There are suck people on these boats and the people stuck are freaking out.

Not exactly sure who the cruise industry thinks is going to work on their boats. I know these crews are mostly from poor countries but they are going to lose a massive amount of experience whenever they do reopen due to how they have handled this.

Definitely recommend the Twitter thread.

https://mobile.twitter.com/i/events/1262049373170446336

3 Likes

Don’t even want to see it. I’m already mad. Every cruise ship worker should be free to get off in the US and get the same treatment that anyone born here would get and anyone who disagrees with me on that sucks hard and might as well be a Trumpkin.

16 Likes

I think this is just the US picking up on stuff we already knew. I remember a study estimating it at 5.7 a little while ago.

One thing that I think is worth pointing out is that a lot of people feel like it can’t be that contagious or there would be way more cases. But a higher R0 doesn’t mean that you can catch it from someone looking at you the wrong way, it just means there is a lot of spread - the fact that it’s asymptomatic for so long is a huge part of it.

The good news is that if the R0 is 5.7, but it’s mostly due to asymptomatic spread, those taking precautions can significantly reduce their risk… The bad news is, the US is never going to do enough testing to effectively combat that asymptomatic spread.

Yeah that was my ballpark number on what % of viral particles it would stop if both people (infected and healthy) wore masks, so it’s good to see that it also translates to a similar reduction in infection. In other words, it’s good to see that 5% getting through isn’t enough to infect 100% of the time or whatever…

They also tested it both in terms of just one or just the other wearing them, and there’s a reduction if just the healthy person wears them but it’s not as significant - looks like about 50%, which was also my guess before :).

1 Like

It wasn’t the right word, but a reasonable approximation can be derived from year-on-year comparisons.

ETA Pyat’s next post cites excess deaths

Yesterday, the government announced that if the Covid-19 vaccine candidate developed by Oxford University proves successful in human trials then up to 30 million doses for the UK could be available by September.

Not so fast, idiots:

Prof Robin Shattock , head of mucosal infection and immunity at Imperial College London, said he thought a vaccine was not likely to be widely available until next year. He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme:

I think we have a very high chance of seeing a number of vaccines that work because we know a lot about this target and I think there’s good scientific rationale to say it’s not such a hard target as others.

My gut feeling is that we will start to see a number of candidates coming through with good evidence early towards next year - possibly something this year - but they won’t be readily available for wide scale use into the beginning of next year as the kind of most optimistic estimation.

1 Like

It’s going to tilt the shit out of me when the UK gives the US like 25 doses of that vaccine, and they go to Trump and Melania, Trump’s kids, Pence and his wife, McConnell, McCarthy, Pompeo, and the five conservative SCOTUS justices.

About those unnecessary flybys…

1 Like

In October, a Snowbirds jet crashed into an uninhabited area before an air show in the US city of Atlanta, after the pilot ejected.

Maybe these guys shouldn’t be a thing

edit: lol 47 US pilots have been killed flying for the Blue Angels and the Thunderbirds. Jesus.

Snowbirds have only killed nine.

edit2: There have been 272 Blue Angels pilots since 1946. 26 have died flying for the Blue Angels. wtf.

From a recent article discussing the (GOAT obv) Red Arrows

Since March 1969 there have been 16 incidents and accidents which resulted in a total of nine deaths.

1 Like

I haven’t seen any estimates of fatality using the excess deaths number. Anyone have anything that does?

9 in 51 years? Pathetic. How about 11 in one day. Still, imagine how cool it would have been if he’d looped-the-loop!

(PS I’m sure you know about this, it’s just one of those things I can’t quite let go even though it does me no good.)

1 Like

I guessing Karen loves cruises? Because I just don’t get it.

I think Germany „wins“ this one, without even ever having had a show-wing in the Airforce:

(Yes, I know we are technically only in second place behind Ukraine)

google dude

UK excess deaths ~ 50,000 @12th May

After one night back, I can say we were more full last night than we’ve been in the last 3 weeks or so.

Some Covid patients, but not overrun or anything, yet.

The real bottleneck for my particular facility, I worry, will be ICU beds. There’s still some room available, but we’re back closer to the normal 85%+ of capacity at all times.

Guess we’ll see in the coming weeks what the future holds.

13 Likes

Prof Tim Spector , the head of the department of genetic epidemiology at King’s College London, has restated his claim that the NHS is under-estimating the real number of people infected with coronavirus. His claim is based on the data thrown up by the Covid symptom app launched by Kings.

Speaking on the Today programme, Spector claimed there were 50,000 to 70,000 people in the UK with coronavirus who are not being told to self-isolate. He blamed Public Health England (PHE) and the wider tracking strategy, saying an insistence that only temperature and cough were the major symptoms was missing thousands of cases.

Spector said 1.5 million people were logging onto the King’s app and tracking a wide range of symptoms and changes. He went on:

It tells us that we’ve got at least 100,000 cases at the moment of people who are infected. And this is from our data, although the NHS would underestimate that because they’re not counting all the symptoms

At the moment, people are being told to go back to work if they’re a care worker, and they’ve got something like loss of smell or taste or severe muscle pains or fatigue - things that we know and we’ve shown are related to being swabbed positive.

This country is missing the ball in underestimated cases but also putting people at risk, and continuing the epidemic.

So we really do need to tell Public Health England to get in line with the rest of the world, and make people more aware.

There’s no point telling people to be alert if they don’t know the symptoms.

3 Likes

Saint Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican has reopened to visitors after being closed for over two months under Italy’s lockdown orders to prevent the spread of the coronavirus.

A handful of visitors queued up, observing social distancing rules, and were watched by police officers wearing face masks before having their temperatures taken to enter the church, which has been closed since 10 March.

Nuns visit St Peter’s Basilica as it reopened on Monday.

Nuns visit St Peter’s Basilica as it reopened on Monday. Photograph: Vincenzo Pinto/AFP via Getty Images

Italy was the first country to go into a full lockdown over two months ago, bringing the economy to its knees.

The official death toll from the virus in the country now stands at around 32,000.

The government started lifting restrictions on 4 May, and on Sunday joggers, walkers and cyclists were plentiful on the streets of Rome’s historic centre.

Daily life during phase two of the Covid-19 emergency in the centre of Rome, Italy.

Daily life during phase two of the Covid-19 emergency in the centre of Rome, Italy. Photograph: Riccardo Antimiani/EPA

Restaurants, bars, cafes, shops and hairdressers, among other businesses, were all expected to reopen on Monday, with public masses also resuming.

Coronavirus brought Belgium its deadliest April since the second world war, according to a study, as the country begins slowly to lift lockdown measures.

A total of 14,790 people died in Belgium last month as Covid-19 swept the country – substantially higher than the normal April total of deaths below 9,000, researchers from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) found.

Not since the Nazi occupation of the 1940s has Belgium had such a high mortality rate in April, the month when high winter death rates usually drop off with the onset of spring, the researchers found.

“Mortality in Belgium is exceptionally high, reaching unprecedented levels, especially in the period from 1 to 12 April,” the university said in a statement.

There were 639 deaths on 10 April, “more than double the number that would have been expected for that day”. It said:

April 2020 was the deadliest April since the Second World War, both in absolute numbers and per capita.

Belgium has been hit hard by the pandemic, suffering one of the world’s highest per capita death tolls, though the virus appears to be easing and lockdown restrictions are starting to be lifted, AFP reports.

The government has also been praised by the World Health Organization for keeping more accurate tolls than some of its neighbours, and the per capita rate may be higher because of this.

Southern European countries ease lockdowns. Italy is reopening bars, cafes, restaurants and hairdressers - with social distancing measures in place - for the first time since its lockdown began. Meanwhile in Spain, almost three quarters of the country progressed to the second phase of its lockdown de-escalation, allowing millions of people to meet up in groups of up to 10, and to have a drink or a meal on cafe and restaurant terraces.

Global infections pass 4.7 million. There are 4,727,625 confirmed cases of coronavirus worldwide. At least 315,482 people have died over the course of the pandemic. The number of deaths in the US is approaching 90,000, with 89,564 confirmed fatalities and 1,486,742 infections, according to the Johns Hopkins University tracker.

Japan falls into recession. Japan dived into its first recession since 2015, according to official data on Monday, with the world’s third-largest economy contracting by 0.9% in the first quarter as it wrestled with the fallout from the coronavirus.

South Africa reports highest daily increase in cases. It reported 1,160 new coronavirus infections, the highest daily number since the first case was recorded in March. The Western Cape province, popular with tourists, accounted for nearly 60% of the national numbers.

New virus cases in Russia under 9,000 for first time since 1 May. 8,926 new infections were recorded in the last 24 hours, as anti-virus restrictions ease and officials say the situation is stabilising.

Mayor of São Paulo, Brazil, says hospitals ‘near collapse’. The BBC has reported that the mayor of São Paulo, the country’s largest city, has warned that hospitals have reached 90% capacity and are “near collapse”. They could run out of space in two weeks’ time, he said. Brazil has the fourth-highest number of infections worldwide, with 241,080, according to Johns Hopkins University figures. It has recorded 16,118 deaths.

Meanwhile, Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro greeted hundreds of supporters who gathered before the presidential offices Sunday and joined some in a series of push-ups .

Taiwan blocked from WHO meeting following Chinese pressure. Taiwan had been lobbying to take part in the World Health Assembly, which opens later on Monday, but did not get invited due to Chinese pressure, its foreign minister said, adding they had agreed to put the issue off until later this year.

Thailand’s economy contracts for first time since 2014. The coronavirus pandemic, which has shuttered borders and devastated the tourism-reliant country, caused the economy to shrink for the first time in six years.

Ryanair chief accuses UK of mismanaging coronavirus crisis. Michael O’Leary described the UK’s planned introduction of a 14-day quarantine period for travellers arriving from abroad as “idiotic and unimplementable”.

2 Likes
2 Likes

OK, well speaking of air disasters, my son is coming home next week, and I’m working on a plan. I did a rough estimate of the volume of our house, and looked up the efficacy of our AC filters against viruses (MERV-13 filter = useless against particles the size of the coronavirus). I can find the CFM of our air handlers, although it will be a range, and I can control whether the blowers are on, windows open/closed, and AC on/off. @TheNewT50, what else do I need to get estimates like the ones you have posted?

I looked at some air purifiers, and it seems like maybe a UV one would do some good, but haven’t tried to buy one yet. Who knows whether it would arrive in time. I will be driving my son home; that seems to be the highest risk. We’ll be in the car for about 1.5 hours, and we’ll both be masked. I’ll have the windows down if possible. We’ll try to get him tested on the way home under the category of caring for an immunocompromised person. My wife, who is the immunocompromised person, will be staying with relatives who are very much locked down and careful, until a negative test result is returned.

During those hopefully few days, I plan to be separated within the house, with separate entrances, food/fridge/cooking, and living/working areas. But there is still air circulating. It seems like opening windows and doors would be best, to increase the air turnover. Maybe masking up even when indoors and not in the same room?