COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Dude you’re just supposed to post the headline and say “bad news for team we’re not all gonna die”, and move on. :stuck_out_tongue:

The continued pettiness in Jman’s posting wrt Jalfrazi wrt this Virus.

I tend to think it is a real phenomenon. Although not proven, we’ve had multiple different groups of doctors with experience treating COVID patients who think that reinfection is going on, and I don’t think there’s anything that unlikely about it. We know that some people get infected and shrug off the infection without even developing symptoms, so it would not be surprising if the body is capable of getting rid of COVID just with a T-cell response - antibodies are a second-wave immune response. There’s every chance this goes on with other coronaviruses as well and we’ve just never seen it because we don’t repeatedly test people for those.

It’s unlikely this is any kind of general problem because:

  • It’s unlikely this virus works significantly differently to other coronaviruses, where we develop immunity but it’s not long lasting.

  • We’d hear way more reports of reinfection if it were commonplace. 2% of the sailors on the Teddy Roosevelt is a fringe phenomenon, also if it is the case that this results from the virus being eliminated just with T-cells, then we’d expect to see it happen more in young, healthy people.

  • Convalescent serum is an effective treatment, so we know that people produce antibodies and that those antibodies are effective in combating COVID.

Edit: It might also be the case that people who get reinfected make antibodies but the antigens used are not super effective. I’m reaching the limit of my knowledge here and making shit up though.

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You too lol… Chill :point_up_2:

Sorry. I earn a good salary from prosecuting innocent black people while being lenient on the white middle classes, and it’s infuriating that I have to stay on lockdown when I deserve to be on another super cruise with my family of privileged know nothings.

It feels like the end of the world.

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Yeah… Maybe but its still not the thread for it bro.

If these tests are as bad as some news reports are suggesting, I’m remaining skeptical of these reports of people getting it twice.

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Me too… I’d think as @ChrisV post explains, I’d think it would be more wide spread.

I’d put Dallas, Houston, and a bunch of Florida cities up there too

Lots of good points in there, good post!

I’m not really worried about this too much, even if it is real.

Obviously, this is bad for stopping the spread, herd immunity, etc.

However, until we find someone who got it and tested postive, then got better and tested negative and had a reasonably long asymptomatic period, then got it again, tested positive, and subsequently died, I’m not going to worry about it.

I just find it hard to believe that the immune system that fought it off the first time is going to lose round 2 bad enough to die. It’s not impossible, and I can even imagine mechanisms by which this could actually occur, however at this point, I think it’s extremely unlikely and I don’t think such a case has been reported.

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David?

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Depends on the specific margin of error on the test type they use. So if there was a 5% margin of error, your odds of being in the 5% twice in a row if you were positive would be 1/400. I’m currently 8-tabling and not thinking too deeply though, I feel like there’s some correlation that would make it a little more complicated. Like if it’s not totally random and there’s some reason, it would be more likely than that.

We know from studies that some people who have positive swab tests and mild or no symptoms, don’t produce appreciable antibodies.

Maybe if somehow it stays in the throat and doesn’t move to the lungs, so you don’t produce anitbodies - but it just hangs around for a month or whatever. Then somehow it makes it into the lungs and now you’re sick sick, and producing antibodies.

I think the big test is do you get really sick, fight it off, then get really sick again. Of course really sick could be subjective.

I can think of at least a half-dozen times in my life when I got super stressed out about something, then immediately got sick. I’ve always thought I must just have stuff hanging around all the time waiting to make me sick as soon as my defenses are down. Maybe it’s a similar concept - maybe colds can hanging around in the throat mostly dormant, but then blow up if your immune system is weakened.

Similarly I think planes make me sick by taking a plunger and to my sinuses and stirring everything up.

On the one hand, yes, but on the other, P(Rona) on a ship where it had been running rampant figures to be higher than the general population, so P(Rona|pozz) is not getting a lot of help. Also, given that it’s only a handful of sailors experiencing flu like symptoms, P(flu) doesn’t look so good, and neither does P(flu|flu symptoms)

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I’m pretty sure the new guidance is not to indiscriminately spray disinfectant all over the place, because that shit is not good for your lungs. Using disinfectant to wipe down and clean surfaces is fine.

It’s also possible some people’s innate immune response stopped the virus. You don’t always need antibodies to stop a virus.

Or maybe it’s getting stopped by nose hairs (that’s what they’re for after all).

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I agree we shouldn’t worry too much about this yet… My main concern would be if it does permanent damage, then comes back, you may be more susceptible the second time around. But it seems like there are a couple hundred other things to worry about before that.

Right - that’s what they were saying in the people who didn’t show antibodies - possibly T-cells were enough. But maybe a few those people still had enough virus hanging around that somehow eventually took hold and made them sick.

Anyway the real test of can you get it again - legit sick, fight it off, month or more goes by, get legit sick again. That’s the nightmare scenario.

Or I guess - test positive for antibodies, still get really sick again. Has that ever happened with any virus?

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This woman got it bad, was hospitalized, recovered, was released, and was back in two weeks later again with a bad case. I didn’t re-read this whole thing, but I read about her the other day and if I recall correctly, she never tested negative, she just had no symptoms and they sent her home.