COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

Ya Chiang Mai is an awesome slightly lesser known but still fairly touristy place. I would highly recommend going to Chiang Mai over Phuket for example if you go to Thailand. Northern Thai cuisine is also amazing and significantly different from the other regions in the country. A big chunk of the economy there seemed to be these night markets with food, drinking and trinket vendors and tuk tuk drivers. They have to be taking a beating right now economically.

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4% of deaths have been people under 45. 4% > 0%.

https://twitter.com/hunterw/status/1261701460384985089?s=21

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/summer-weather-could-help-fight-coronavirus-spread-but-wont-halt-the-pandemic/2020/05/15/70ee90e2-95f6-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html

New research has bolstered the hypothesis that summer’s heat, humidity, abundant sunshine and opportunities for people to get outside should combine to inhibit — though certainly not halt — the spread of the coronavirus.

But infectious disease experts add a cautionary note: Any benefit from summer conditions would likely be lost if people mistakenly believe the virus can’t spread in warm weather and abandon efforts that limit infections, such as social distancing.

“The best way to think about weather is as a secondary factor here,” said Mohammad Jalali, an assistant professor at Harvard Medical School who has researched how weather affects the spread of viruses.

This is all I’ve ever been saying.

In recent weeks, numerous research studies, based on laboratory experiments, computer models and sophisticated statistical analyses, have supported the view that the coronavirus will be inhibited by summer weather.

A new working paper and database put together by researchers at Harvard Medical School, MIT and other institutions examines a host of weather conditions, from temperature and relative humidity to precipitation, at 3,739 locations worldwide to try to determine the “relative covid-19 risk due to weather.” They found that average temperatures above 77 degrees are associated with a reduction in the virus’s transmission.

Each additional 1.8-degree temperature increase above that level was associated with an additional 3.1 percent reduction in the virus’s reproduction number, called R0, and pronounced “R naught.” That is the average number of new infections generated by each infected person. When the R0 drops below 1, an epidemic begins to wane, although it doesn’t happen overnight.

However, like previous studies, the research from Harvard and MIT found that the transition to summer weather won’t be sufficient to completely contain the virus’s transmission.

There are many factors in the seasonal pattern. The virus degrades outside a host cell, and does so more rapidly when exposed to heat or ultraviolet radiation from the sun.

Humidity plays a complex role. Research indicates that viruses easily spread in winter in the dry air of climate-controlled spaces. By contrast, higher humidity makes respiratory droplets, the most common vector of virus, drop to the ground or floor more quickly, limiting airborne transmission.

David Rubin, director of PolicyLab at Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, and his colleagues have incorporated weather factors in the model they have developed showing when and where it will be relatively safe to ease some shutdown orders.

“Clearly, I believe weather is impacting it — it’s just not impacting it enough to completely eliminate transmission,” Rubin said. “That’s why we’re still seeing cases in Florida and Texas and Tennessee. It seems to be preventing a big exponential rise in cases.”

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Kind of debunks Trump’s theory that less testing leads to less cases.

Hope your grandma stays safe.

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How could any other president managed things differently?

https://mobile.twitter.com/jed_mercurio/status/1261366382618226689

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Bumble match yesterday:

Me: How’s the 'rona life treating you?

Her: I think it is a myth virus.

Me: looooooooooool unmatch

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Give up imo. You’ll be consigned to the deniers bin by the WAAGTD crowd of group thinkers if you so much as suggest there may be some mitigating factors.

I’m still hoping that vitamin D gives some boost to the body’s defences, and between that, face masks, wfh, other summertime factors and the possibility of a vaccine sooner rather than later there’s some significant chance that we can prevent the worst possible outcome, but I’ve stopped posting about it.

Cmon man literally everyone here just about thinks there is some degree of mitigation based on weather. It wouldn’t make any sense for there not to be even if it is only based on humans behavior changing through the seasons. The argument always has been the degree of mitigation summer will bring. Suzzer has talked about the summer pause a lot which I think most of us took to mean that there would be a pause in transmission in the summer that we disagreed with. Now that he has further explained that his position is not that I think we are all pretty close to on the same page on this one. It matters some, but not enough in and of itself to keep it from going exponential.

Like does anyone here really think it won’t be transmitted easier in the fall/winter? I think we all agree on that.

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Well yes, but people shouldn’t have to explain that they’re taking a balanced outlook to talk about possible mitigation of the worst outcomes.

It’s as if some people who’ve probably never left their national borders have regressed into screaming hysterics about the potential loss of privilege.

And they talk about Trumpers…

I"m sorry to trigger suzzer. I remember him as always having a good attitude since his shoe posts in OOT and was just having a laugh. Again, don’t take my posts personally.

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I think you’d be less intimidating if you brought back the avatar of the goofy soccer player.

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Me: My grandfather thought so too. His funeral is on Sunday.

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haha, Ricky Rubio doesn’t play futbol for the TWolves anymore. I should add something though.

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Hiring and training employees while practicing social distancing is harder than you think. It’s been a long spring.

Bring her as a date and post cliff notes

It looks like something went very wrong with your quote function there.

Ah-ha!