COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

It was almost two months of the most glorious business imaginable. Totally worth it.

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Anyone have any recommendations I can send my dad to help him keep cool? He works construction and is mandated to wear a mask, glasses, long sleeves, and gloves. Heā€™s burning up and miserable. Hoping to find some shirts and a mask that protects him, but will also provide some breathability. Thanks.

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So your hospitalization range may just be forward thinking but itā€™s just way off for S.C. we are at 880 hospitalizations, half of the bottom end of your ranges. The outbreak here has been in young people and fewer are needing hospitalization

Iā€™m 99% convinced that the Coronavirus is going to lead to breathable mask tech that will make mask wearing somewhat common going forward, particularly in flu/cold season. Assuming corona doesnā€™t just end up endemicā€¦ which it still very much might.

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Holy shit Florida.

9,000 new cases

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Seeing all the droolers finally understand what exponential growth is ought to be interesting.

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And thatā€™s just infections that happened 5-14 days ago.

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Not trying to go full Dark Helmet here, but my wifeā€™s cousinā€™s husband died of covid-19 yesterday. To the best of my knowledge, thatā€™s the closest familial relation I know of whoā€™s even tested positive, let alone died, so Iā€™m certainly very lucky. I donā€™t think my wife has ever met the guy or if she has itā€™s been a while, but we have met his wife recently. His death has my FIL pretty shook. He was in Houston, so right in the middle of a massive outbreak. Hopefully this does a good job to convince the in-laws to stay the fuck at home. Theyā€™d been pretty good, but itā€™s time to be super cautious.

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(Morpheus voice.) What if I told you that youā€™re not actually at 880 hospitalizations?

Now, my model is projecting hospitalizations based on the total active cases right now when in reality thatā€™s based on the total active cases 4 weeks ago to 1 week ago - I then add time on to the end to offset that. Still, theyā€™re probably only counting confirmed positive cases as opposed to positive + suspected, which seems to be a difference of ~50%. So my guess is if they are saying 880, itā€™s more like 1,320.

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Oh wow bars closed completely? Thatā€™s very surprising, I never thought they would dial it back that far

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A lot of people will never understand because there is a pretty strong instinctive bias toward linear thinking.

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Floridaā€™s having itself a heckuva week: 2.9K, 3.3K, 5.5K, 5K, 8.9K.

Disney still planning to reopen 7/11ā€¦

This really is evidence that theyā€™re totally just clicking buttons. A 100% predictable outcome took them totally by surprise.

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Officials in South Florida have a new health threat to attack in addition to COVID-19. According to the Associated Press, health officials announced 10 more cases of West Nile virus have been detected in Miami-Dade County, bringing the total to 14 cases.

10 more people have contracted West Nile virus in Miami-Dade, health officials say

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/06/25/coronavirus-cases-10-times-larger/

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Sigh. My sisterā€™s redneck in laws planned a party for her 30th birthday on Monday. I really donā€™t want to goā€¦ but my family will never forgive me if I donā€™t.

Normally a presidents role is to lead his party and provide political cover. All the political pressure to fuck up that the GOP politicians are under can be directly traced to Trumps choices about how to handle this.

Think about how different this entire term would have gone if Trump was minimally competent: Start with infrastructure and do it bipartisan with great fanfare, put some kids in cages for the base, undermine the foreign policy establishment and the civil service, pass a tax cut for the donors (or donā€™t, because you can do almost as much for them on the regulatory side and you want to save some political capital for doing something else like maybe the wall), pass a bill patching Obamacare and call it Trumpcare with the full support and backing of everyone the healthcare lobby can whip (which includes quite a few Democrats), suck up to the Europeans in preparation of a trade war with Chinaā€¦ Isolate China in a many vs just them trade war that forces them to take a humiliating deal, and do whatever you need to do to keep Putin from releasing whatever he has over you.

Now handle the coronavirus in a stock standard way and float to reelection with a 60%+ approval rating. Feel free to say all kinds of awful shit about brown people to keep the base in. That clearly isnā€™t a net political negative in the United States in 2020.

But no, heā€™s a drooling moron who has no talent whatsoever for management/planning/thinking of any kindā€¦ so he will continue to flail and make things worse against a message proof enemy like a global pandemic.

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Say you have coronavirus symptoms.

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Theyā€™ll get over it in 6 months to a year when they get forced to admit you were right all along. Donā€™t go.

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Florida follows Texas and suspends on-premise consumption at bars.

Floridaā€™s R0 is 2.0, Texas is 1.65, and these fuckers think thatā€™s going to get them down below 1?

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