I’m grunching while working on this spreadsheet, but I’d like to congratulate Florida on the biggest scientific achievement in human history. They’ve apparently discovered how to bring people back from the dead, because they went from 3,016 total deaths when I first set this up Friday to 2,931 total deaths now.
Maybe Ponce de Leon was onto something down there!
The predecessor of the Voyager program was inaugurated in ‘72!
Alright, the problem I’m now having is how to:
A) Estimate the number of recovered cases, so that I can estimate the number of active cases. Data is way off state by state on recovered case reporting.
B) Factor in hospital discharges into their future capacity - in other words future recovered cases.
C) Fix my equations because it gets goofy with an R0 < 1. Like, Arizona has 0 to 11 days to hospital overrun. New York (R0 < 1) has 94 to 74 in my spreadsheet. Uhh, what? The best case scenario can’t be worse than the worst case! And this is also an issue with not accounting for recoveries. States that aren’t in a crunch and have an R0 < 1 will have increased available beds, not decreased.
I think the answer is to adjust the model to only take the last six weeks of data into account, and make it project remaining days using new cases - old cases, but I pulled an all nighter on poker and this, and can’t think well enough to make the changes right now.
That said, my R0 spreadsheet is now working, and I think my model should be reasonably accurate on the states that are close to tipover on their first major wave, since the recoveries and active case estimates don’t matter as much.
So here are those:
Arizona 0 to 11 days (tipover inevitability is reached when the back end < 12, but when I fix the recovery rate issue that could mean they haven’t quite collapsed the system yet, but Arizona is basically fucked as we know)
Florida 3 to 20 days (using the lady’s data who got fired, my model off the official data is 14-31)
South Carolina 9 to 22 days
North Carolina 15 to 38 days
Oregon 16 to 29 days
Vermont 16 to 26 days
Georgia 1 to 70 days (likely some issues with recovery messing this up by overstating active cases)
California 1 to 50 days (likely some issues with recovery messing this up by overstating active cases)
New Mexico -57 to 8 days (my guess is this is off due to many cases being concentrated on Native American reservations which likely have different hospital stats/access, and I can’t account for that in the model - also if my estimate is right anything on the high end that’s < 12 days is inevitably tipping over at this point)
It’s also important to note that, say, LA or Orange County could tip over while the state overall is still a long ways off from tipping over because my model is based on statewide hospital beds per capita.
The same applies to Dallas and Houston, which I’m estimating by hand off official hospital bed’s available and statewide R0 to be at 9 days and 8 days respectively, even though Texas overall is 46 to 74 days away. Both cities have a decent number of ICU’s and vents available, though, so they can probably scale their capacity as a result.
And here’s the R0 chart:
UN agencies have warned the coronavirus pandemic could lead to the deaths of an additional 51,000 under-fives in the Middle East and North Africa by the end of the year .
The World Health Organization and United Nations children’s agency Unicef said the disruption of essential health and nutrition services risked “reversing progress (on) child survival in the region by nearly two decades”.
The agencies warned:
While we do not have many cases of Covid-19 among children in the region, it is evident that the pandemic is affecting children’s health firsthand.
“An additional 51,000 children under the age of five might die in the region by the end of 2020” in the case of rising malnutrition and a protracted lack of access to vaccinations and treatment for childhood diseases.
Such a number of extra deaths would represent an increase of almost 40% compared with pre-Covid-19 figures, they said.
The agencies called for a “full and safe resumption” of essential immunisation campaigns and nutrition services, following “strict precautionary measures for infection prevention”.
The agencies cited overstretched health facilities with little personal protective equipment, economic hardships and parents’ fears of contracting the Covid-19 illness at health clinics among factors that could cause a huge rise in child deaths.
They urged authorities to work “to increase trust in public health systems and promote appropriate care-seeking behaviours among families”.
Norway will halt its Covid-19 track and trace app, and delete all data collected so far, after criticism from the Norwegian data protection authority .
The app was introduced by some Norwegian authorities to limit the transmission of the coronavirus.
The data protection watchdog said on Friday that considering the low spread of the infection, among other issues, collecting data through the app could no longer be seen as reasonable amid privacy concerns.
The Norwegian institute of public health said in a statement:
We don’t agree with the DPA’s evaulation, but feel it is necessary to delete all data and put work on hold as a result of this.
We will as a result weaken an important part of our preparedness against a spread in infection, as we now lose time for development and testing of the app.
Beijing city authorities said in a press briefing on Monday that “multiple cases” at a market in Haidian were found, all linked to the Xinfadi market.
Officials said that as of midnight on Monday, 10 residential communities near the Yuquandong market in Haidian had been closed and residents were put under home quarantine and ordered to take nucleic acid tests.
The areas will be under 24 hour supervision and disinfected. The Yuquandong market has been closed since Saturday.
Chinese health officials reported 49 new coronavirus cases on Monday, including 36 more in the capital Beijing where a fresh cluster linked to a wholesale food market has fuelled fears of a second wave of infections, AFP reports.
The domestic outbreak in China - where the disease first emerged last year - had largely been brought under control but then a fresh batch of cases was detected in the capital last week. In addition to the new Beijing cases, the National Health Commission said there were three confirmed cases in Hebei province, which surrounds Beijing.
People wear protective masks as they head to work during morning rush hour in the Central Business District following an outbreak of coronavirus in Beijing, China, 15 June 2020. Photograph: Thomas Peter/Reuters
Beijing has begun mass testing workers at the Xinfadi food market, as well as those who live nearby and anyone who visited it in recent weeks. Officials have said they plan to carry out virus tests on 46,000 residents in the area. More than 10,000 people have been tested already.
There were also 10 imported cases on Monday, which have accounted for the majority of China’s cases in recent months as overseas nationals return home. In total 177 people are now ill with the disease in China - two severely - which is the highest since early May.
There were also 18 new asymptomatic cases, of which seven were domestic. China is not counting asymptomatic cases as confirmed ones.
Not in the '68-'72 time frame, but Donald Trump’s ancestor was inaugurated president of the local patch of pond scum when the event that caused the gravitational waves detected by LIGO in 2015 occurred.
I don’t think it’s true that no one cares about astronomical observation and robotic space exploration.
My dad lives in Atlanta but took a trip to Florida (Tampa) last week.
He described a COVID hellscape. He went in a grocery store with zero masks. In the Channelside part of Tampa, it was literally hard to find anyone wearing a mask anywhere. Bars were open with people spilling out. He was stunned, and said it all look just like before the pandemic.
Atlanta isn’t like that, at all. I went to Target and ALDI in Buckhead (wealthy, Pretty republican area) over the weekend and it was probably >90% mask compliance.
What would cause Tampa to do so much worse than Atlanta? State public health efforts? Something cultural?
This would also potentially explain why Florida is blowing up right now, while Georgia is only semi-blowing up (the cause of which has been somewhat of a mystery).
The definitive blog article about the Fermi Paradox:
Goes through all the terms and possibilities being discussed here.
I have completely boundless optimism and enthusiasm for the James Webb Space Telescope.
It’s going to be completely revolutionary and change the game forever for exoplanets and some big questions about the early universe.
I think last I heard is 2022, maybe 2021. Lots of cost overruns and delays, but what can you do.
I’m sure their are multiple factors but the Tampa area is certainly one of America’s white privilege capitals. A huge chunk of the population is affluent white retirees who have never had to do anything they didn’t want to do.
More encouraging mask science. (Well, encouraging for those living where mask wearing is promoted and followed.)
Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/06/10/2009637117
And…
We show that, when facemasks are used by the public all the time (not just from when symptoms first appear), the effective reproduction number, Re , can be decreased below 1, leading to the mitigation of epidemic spread. Under certain conditions, when lock-down periods are implemented in combination with 100% facemask use, there is vastly less disease spread, secondary and tertiary waves are flattened and the epidemic is brought under control. The effect occurs even when it is assumed that facemasks are only 50% effective at capturing exhaled virus inoculum with an equal or lower efficiency on inhalation. Facemask use by the public has been suggested to be ineffective because wearers may touch their faces more often, thus increasing the probability of contracting COVID-19. For completeness, our models show that facemask adoption provides population-level benefits, even in circumstances where wearers are placed at increased risk.
https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376
Your numbers are sooooo low as to not be relevant to the calculations.
At those numbers I think we can assume excellent quarantine and contact tracing which are another huge contributor to negative R and what allowed several countries go to 0 or near 0.
Completely not relevant to 3rd world countries like the US.
Edit. 
really Trolly? The above should be pretty obvious to anyone itt.
I ended up just using a running 14 day positives for active cases, ignoring deaths and recoveries. The available recovery data is bullshit. This is at least self consistent with the testing data.
What date is this from?
Because Trump’s Florida resident dick sucker, DeSantis is basically going on TV every day saying everything is A-OK. He was even trying to open schools again when there was only 2 weeks left in the year. The teachers in Florida had to tell him to go fuck himself. He fired a scientist because she refused to lie about the numbers. He is doing everything Trump asks him to do.
Right on cue. It’s lonely out there: These guys say 36 communicating civilizations in the galaxy, separated by an average of 17,000 ly.
SciTechDaily: New Research on Intelligent Life Within Our Own Galaxy – The Milky Way.
She started her own website to track Florida numbers.
And DeSantis’s office is saying she was fired for repeated insubordination. Yea because as we all know, people that work decades to become scientists act like 16 year old at McDonald’s refusing to wash the dishes.
