Can I come now?
This was my life 5 weeks ago. We have at least doubled 5 weeks in a row. Still, nobody cares. Iâve seen more masks on holloween
Awesome, thanks! Iâm going to finish this spreadsheet over the weekend, make it look nice and pretty, and then try to update it daily each night the next few weeks as we sift through the re-opening. So hopefully with that in mind, I can start posting screen shots Sunday night or Monday morning.
I just looked at the Philly data for the first time in a while and was pleasantly surprised. If I just did this right, our current R0 is .92.
From 5/29 to 6/11 we had 1,638 new cases.
From 5/15 to 5/28 we had 2,840 new cases.
So we have decreased by 43% over 28 days, or about 1.5% per day. In order to get to .985 day over day growth in the spreadsheet, I have to plug in an R0 of .92. Weâre about a week into the Yellow Phase, so if we manage to keep it below 1.0 during the yellow phase, thatâs a pretty great sign.
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If my countyâs weekly cases have at least doubles every week like this
25-50
50-100
100-200
200-400
Whatâs are RO? Ty
A doubling time of one week means an R0 of approximately 1.8 to 1.9, if Iâm not messing this up. An R0 of 2.0 should be a doubling time of just under 6 days.
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Iâm definitely getting quarantine fatigue, combined with envy of my 4 friends who have been through this and seem more or less ok now - although I need to follow up on the one friendâs roommate who âsaw his dead relativesâ.
I woke up at 4am this morning wide awake so I said fuck it and went to the gym. I had peeked in a few times in the afternoon just out of curiosity - utterly packed, no masks, average age maybe 27 when itâs usually more like 42.
Turns out it was the only gym open for 2 weeks - the others just got clearance today. Weâll see how much trouble the owner (my famous deplorable ex-trainer) gets in. He said he was on a conference call with other gym owners and the city - where they discussed all kinds of onerous rules - and then at then end everything is optional. So of course people will flock to the places not following them. Libertarianism wins again. Iâm sure the guilds will shun them.
But donât worry - thereâs a giant bottle of hand sanitizer and lots more cleaning stations than usual. Everyone is instructed to clean their stations before and after use. Iâm sure compliance is 100%. Oh yeah, masks are allowed but be careful because you might pass out from exerting yourself and lack of oxygen.
I did my deadlifts as fast as I could and got out. There were still way too many people in there at 5am for my liking and it was filling up by the time I left. At least the deadlift platform creates a natural little island. I didnât bring my usual bottle of water and felt like I was going to pass out at the end. May need to rethink that.
I have a tradition that I always say âGood boy, suzzerâ (except I donât call myself suzzer IRL ldo) to myself after a good workout or exercise. This time it was âGood boy, suzzer⌠and I hope that wasnât the biggest mistake you ever made.â
Torrance and Redondo Beach and the surrounding areas are still pretty low as far as cases in LA county that may be the biggest thing I have going for me.
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Italian and Spanish soccer are now both back. Leagues will finish, money is more important than health to them
Apparently there was golf today but I donât get the Golf Channel. Looks like itâs on CBS tomorrow. Iâve never watched more than 5 minutes of non-major golf, but I may start tomorrow. SPORTS!
Actually no, you canât. Japan is still banning travelers from the U.S. and Canada for Covid reasons.
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Solid leaderboard too.
Without grabbing a calculator it should be a little less than 2. If we are using 5.6 days as the average infection cycle an R0 of 2 means it doubles every 5.6 days. So if we double in 7 days its a little under 2.
We were doubling every 3 days at the peak.
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What are the boundaries? Too small for zip code.
Looks like the darkest spot there is by my momâs place, which would make sense. There are a lot of 55+ places and nursing homes around there.
Checking back into this thread after checking in and out over the last 3 months depending on mental state.
Anyway, this has probably been posted here already several times but just in case it hasnât, here is a site that uses machine learning to create projections state by state: COVID-19 Projections Using Machine Learning | We use artificial intelligence to accurately forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus pandemic in the US and globally
I am in NYC so seeing the projections is a bit comforting to me since they remain low at least for a while.
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trump doing this rally and literally everyone there thinks wearing a mask means you donât believe in the president, and theyâre all packed in inside shouting and yelling for hours.
just the worst possible leadership. again, right? heâs a russian agent
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Are we with Russia on this one then since thereâs a chance all these idiots get it?
itâs all part of their plan to sow discord by encouraging the dumbest americans to do and say dumber and dumber shit. in europa universalis you just to into the diplomatic menu and select âcovert actionsâ and âsow discordâ will cost 60 espionage points
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Itâs not Russians fault Americans are literally that dumb.
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