I don’t know what Anachronistic is even trying to say but got an email from local corporate indicating we had the highest number of new cases since the outbreak started, which they linked to “the easing of restrictions several weeks ago” (and not the protest ldo). Cases are exploding in Maricopa and Pima counties, not just the reservations.
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Higher case numbers lead to more sick people filling hospitals. That is an expected development. Ouch.
Relative to testing? Not really.
I think the point is ofc you’re going to get a surge of new cases if you have a huge increase in testing, which is why positives per test is the real metric people should be looking at.
I mean there’s no correlation between more testing and more hospitalizations, they aren’t admitting asymptomatic people. Hospitalizations and ICU admissions are a function of number of people getting sick and I’m telling you that both are increasing to the point where apparently Phoenix hospitals are getting close to capacity and may need to start shipping patients out.
Aren’t only people who suspect they have it getting tested? A surge in people with Covid symptoms thinking they might have it is more likely than a sudden surge of asymptomatic people deciding they want a test right? It isn’t like Arizona’s testing capacity just doubled in the last few days.
As to Anarch’s shit posting isn’t what we are discussing here trends in Covid? If we don’t care about a trend like hospitals filling what exactly do we care about?
That’s surprising.
I’m sure a lot of you will think it’s crazy that my daughter is working at all (she’s 18 and I said and mean that it’s up to her), but customers wanted to come in without masks and the general manager said that it was ok and if the workers were uncomfortable they could put on two masks - and my daughter said she’d quit if customers aren’t required to wear masks - and…at least so far she won the labor dispute and customers are required to wear masks.
eta: turns out story was not 100% accurate.
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The only thing more testing, in a vacuum, does is catch more mildly symptomatic people. The people ending up at hospitals have all been getting tested since early April. My wife’s hospital tests every single person in their ICU. I imagine that is the case everywhere.
Asymptomatic people or mildly symptomatic people aren’t showing up at hospitals. You would have to be pretty ignorant to assume correlation between increased testing and hospitalization.
Lol @ bosses everywhere
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Maybe. But without knowing more, we can’t be sure if there’s more COVID or if they’ve simply ramped up testing.
I agree with you. I think the 7DMA is really the best we can do for now because of the obvious problems with the data. It should smooth it some. Arizona specifically has been ramping up some anyways but if they go back to 500 cases a day after this it was just a blip. If it doesn’t then it wasn’t. Like with all of this more data is better and what we have to work with all has problems with it.
The real two things that are critical going forward are hospitalization rates and the direction of the longer term trend. No one data point really means much of anything.
We fully expect that rate of testing is greater than the rate of spread currently. That means lower CFR and CHR.
I also track Dearhs per day and not much is moving in the upwards directions.
For upslope state deaths by 7 day rolling avg
(Limits >10 deaths per day and R^2>0.7)
MN is 25/day growing at 0.5/day rate
NC is 23/day growing at 1.5/day
WI is 14/day growing at 0.8/day
That’s it
Possibly going up after a dip:
AZ, AL, KY
Stubbornly flat
CA, GA, MS, MO, RI,
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Well I can provide a little more data but obviously the picture is always going to be incomplete. They started easing restrictions here sometime around mid-May. Starting with the third Saturday in May, Arizona had a “testing blitz” where everyone was supposed to be able to get tested regardless of symptoms. I have no idea how many people got tested or when but anecdotally my doctor (a local health center that was testing at four locations) filled up on the first weekend and not the other two. Recorded cases appear to have been consistent throughout May, not indicating any particular surge due to the increased testing. May 29 is the first day I see over 50 new reported cases since May 19 (Pima county), followed by our first two days of over 100 positive tests and then 200 positive new tests as of yesterday. Some of this is due to increased testing but the fact that I’m being told that hospitals in Phoenix are reaching capacity indicates to me that we’re seeing a real increase in spread.
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I think post-reopening it is more likely people unlikely to die are getting infected. Younger people are out and about and all vulnerable people are taking way more precaution than 3 months ago. You literally could see an increase in cases and a decrease in deaths and neither would really be correlated to testing.Like you mention as far as I can tell there is a surplus of testing over the past month or so.
I trust your judgment on this stuff more than my own so if that logic is flawed let me know where it looks like I am wrong.
So the bagel shop I frequent had been serving people completely outside, and now you’re allowed to enter and order like normal from the counter, except now you’re trapped inside with a bunch of morons who can’t social distance. There was a sign on the door that said max 5 customers and the father and son who went in together ahead of me made 7 people so I had to slow the line down a bit before going inside (both doors closed with AC on) and everyone was stacked up at the counter ahead of me. Also they didn’t explain that they would bring your order outside so some people kept coming back in the exit only door and up to the counter wondering where their food was regardless of how many people were in the store.
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In Glendale, CA, one of the hardest hit cities in the hardest hit county in one of the hardest hit states in the USA, it’s pretty much open for business. High mask compliance in stores, but dine-in restaurants are now open, drove by an IHOP with tons of maskless people sitting in the window happily eating.
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Michigan must have had a massive backlog of data come out today.
I don’t have specific demographic info but sounds like a solid hypothesis to me.
All these things should lead to lower CHR/CFR
Catching up on testing
Increased testing
Focus on protecting vulnerable/old
Younger people disproportionate cases