Mine is 90%. I think it would kill me. 
Lightweight.
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Instead of following this thread for a few days, I set about to answer a nagging question about this: what are the riskiest spaces to be outside of oneās own home, and what are the least risky?
My intuition is that 6 feet is meaningless. Itās a good rule to give people to avoid situations where the disease will likely propagate, but as a comparative tool or black and white rule it seems very imperfect.
The questions I was seeking to answer were: (1) in various environments, what percentage of the air youāre breathing has been in someone elseās lungs?, and (2) what is the potential viral load of this air assuming a reasonable half life?
This is only good for a particular type of transmission: aerosolized particles and/or droplets in the ambient air. Talking in close proximity with someone spewing droplets, or touching an infected surface and then touching your face, are other means of transmission. But theyāll certainly be correlated with these findings.
Some nitty-gritty assumptions: A human breath is 0.5L of air. Breathing rate is 15 breaths/minute. Viral half life in air is 30 minutes. Code occupancies and exchange rates all based on generalized data. This is big picture, folks. (The most critical assumption is the viral half life, as that actually impacts the comparative rates. Faster viral half life in air would mean less risk in poorly ventilated spaces, and more risk in well-ventilated spaces, compared with what my chart says.)
Nonetheless, here are my results:
Itās very easy to see NYC being an ideal breeding ground for this thing. Also, as a rule of thumb, stay outdoors = donāt get sick.
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True story. In fact, last week I had my first ever drink of alcohol by myself. Iām not a tea totaler. Iāve drank socially my whole life. Just never alone. Covid made me have a rum and coke alone one night.
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Weāre still living in a world where at best 70% of cases havenāt been identified (itās probably >90% in reality), so we almost literally can never have verified transmission in this manner.
South Dakota would have no problem reversing things and putting up check points wherever they felt like.
So thatās why people are getting take out too. And it seems like you should be able to relate to that considering what I quoted here.
And I havenāt seen anyone say itās zero risk, but as I explained itās pretty close to zero if you do it carefully. I believe take out/delivery is certainly less dangerous than going to Costco or the garden center or any enclosed space provided you handle it carefully. (And I am going to places occasionally, while Iāve yet to order take out or delivery.)
Maybe Iām misunderstanding your point.
it just takes one case to say this is definitely possible. If you trace enough infections without finding such a case, eventually you have reasonable certainty that it is safe. If we havenāt see enough cases yet, eventually we will.
Same here
Wife and I have cooked every meal for couple months now. Sometimes when we donāt want to cook will say letās get take out, but then we talk ourselves out of it. I think itās safe but we for some reason always decide against it. We have basically developed a phobia towards takeout.
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I got pizza delivered once. They put the pizzas in a large plastic bag that was sealed and left on the porch. They claim safe handling was observed from the oven to box to bag.
I appreciated the bag just because I could open it outside, remove the pizzas and then take them inside.
I think properly handling and disposing of containers and keeping your own hands clean is a huge part of the battle when it comes to bringing external items in.
Personally I am not super worried about eating the virus directly off of take out food, but I am also not really ordering much take out at all.
I was trying to go every 3 weeks and it was a clusterfuck that took forever. Plus I canāt get enough paper towels and TP in one trip (due to restrictions) to supply my household, my parents household, and occasionally my sisters household. So now Iām going about 1x per week, and I think itās about the same risk as going once every 3 weeks but taking 3 times longer to complete the shopping.
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And South Dakota would be wrong to put those checkpoints on roads outside their full jurisdiction. It might be possible to argue that you can only place checkpoints on US and state highways that pass through the reservation with the agreement of both tribal and state government and neither side can unilaterally do so.
This is a matter of law. What is permissible shouldnāt be based on what outcome we want.
That was the old take when the correct move was to force the restaurants to shut down by not patronizing them so their workers can collect unemployment safely at home. Now that the chances of that are 0.0%, itās just know you are having unprotected sex everytime you order carryout/delivery/go out.
I also feel like we would have heard stories of delivery people infecting a bunch of people if virus spread easily on surfaces. I donāt think even 5% of people are wiping containers or reheating food. Doubt most even wash their hands before eating.
Iāve had pizza delivered, set the box on my bed, and eaten it hot without reheating it first.
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The pizza box would never make it into my house, but everyone has to draw their own line I suppose.
Man its just wild to see the level of precaution some of you are taking compared to my family and friends, and they think they are doing everything right and are completely safe and canāt wait until we open for business. For the most part they are trying to do the best they can but I donāt think many people even realize there are people out there who literally cook every meal themselves and get all their groceries delivered and have only left their house a handful of times in 2 months. Like we need an extreme hermiting thread I can show my mom for when she says goes to mcdonalds drive thru every day to get a diet pepsi just to get out of the house but thinks its fine because she wears a mask and puts on a glove for the transaction.
Ever since I found out six feet is the maximum presumed distance one person can cough or sneeze it on another I decided six feet was bogus. Why set the limit at the maximum distance it can travel. So if you lean over 5 inches you get it?
That being said, distance does help reduce the chance of getting it so four feet is certainly better than two feet. But if oneās goal is to limit exposure from others without factoring in air circulation, you should be more than six feet apart.
I just donāt see how these stories could be possible when 90% of all cases are unidentified.
People in my apartment complex are now complaining about how the pool and gym are still closed. The management company seems to be holding strong on them being closed, but who knows how long that will last. What makes things worse is itās basically an enclosed building and weāre all sharing hallways. So if a couple people get it, the only way to stay safe would be to never leave.