I agree with Wichita and i think it’s as simple as fudging the numbers around the edges with comorbidities. Grandpa got covid and died? He was also 82 and had heart disease so…doesn’t count. I’m sure it’s different in every hospital/coroner or whatever and a few around the margins have taken the red pill and have a narrative in their mind to uphold.
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More people would commit suicide if football didn’t exist than those who get the CTE or go AHern or w/e.
consistently the worst takes
I assumed that one was a joke.
It’s hard to say with him.
Shouldn’t you be catching a flight to Australia to see the one girl that said “fine”?
Nope, I sadly cancelled. Thanks for the concern tho!
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Fine but what’s the goal here? Is it to figure out what’s going to happen? Or is it to prove Texas is fudging numbers for political purposes or some other purpose?
We know lots of people are going to die. The only questions in my mind are do we have a hospital crunch and/or do things have to shut down again before that comes? I don’t think people are going to deal with the shutdown well a second time around, I’d like to be prepared for it.
My goal is 100% to figure out what’s going to happen. Do I 100% trust red states’ #s? No. But I’m not going to ignore them either. I lean towards the idea that they can’t be too far off for reasons I’ve gone into ad nauseum, and by looking at trends, just like we did the first time around - we can get an idea if another shut down is coming. Mainly I want to know because I’m pulling my money out of the market, just like I did the first time.
I also want to know about how to not catch covid and how to help my loved ones not catch. But that’s a completely different subject.
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What exactly is your thesis here? Some states are trending in the wrong direction, and if they aren’t it’s because they’re fudging the numbers in ways you can’t prove but still know in your bones? Okay?
I’m watching some states I consider bellwethers. They’re not kicking ass by any means. But they’re not spiking yet. That’s all I know. I’m not going to convince myself there’s a huge spike based on the fact that I think there should be one.
That’s why I say this is exhausting. Most of the time I’m not even sure what we’re arguing about.
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Yes, the goal for you and me is to figure out what’s happened, what’s going to happen, and how to best respond. Don’t ignore the data, but I think it’s right to have some skepticism because the CFR does not line up with what we see elsewhere. Like I said, I think it’s marginal because that is what it looks like when comparing state to state CFR and that is what they can get away with. Of course it is political, I can’t really say how top down or bottom up it is.
I think your “Georgia project” is interesting, keep it up.
This Florida story sort of ties into my point that I don’t think it’s not always that easy to fudge the numbers, even it’s about to get a whole lost easier in Florida. You still have dedicated researchers in a lot of these states who have some integrity. Even if you fire them it becomes a big story.
And you always have to worry about being sued or something if you flat out lie. Only Trump is untouchable. State employees - very touchable.
For the record, while the UFC is obviously not safe, the NFL has far worse brain injury problems because, as I’m sure you know, the problem is not so much single concussive blows as repeated subconcussive blows. Boxing is also a lock to be worse than MMA for brain damage. The gloves make matters worse for the same reason that helmets make matters worse in the NFL - that the protection against acute injury encourages participants to feel that blows to the head aren’t a big deal (for example, during practice) while not doing anything to address the problem of the brain impacting the side of the skull.
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Can you elaborate on this?
My thoughts on this debate between @WichitaDM and @suzzer99:
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Texas is almost certainly covering up deaths, I don’t buy a 2.7% CFR for a second. My guess is that they’re just classifying everything as non-COVID if there are any other factors. So the question is… how are they avoiding overloading hospitals if the data is worse than it appears?
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New York peaked at 7-10K new cases per day, and it was only near their peak that they really started overloading the hospital system. Texas’ population is almost 50% higher, so you’re talking 10-15K new cases per day. They’re currently around 1,500. Now, even if the ratio between their official number and the actual number is worse than New York’s, keep in mind the 7-10K New York cases were positive tests not actual cases, and they were still ramping up testing then.
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A lot of the areas where Texas seems to be seeing bad spikes right now are rural or small towns, and it’s probably a lot easier to cover up there. Like if you have 100 ICU beds and 20 vents and you get overrun by 50%, that’s a lot more dramatic of a buildup than if you have 10 ICU beds and 2 vents and get overrun by 50%.
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Keep in mind that even as new cases are spiking in places like Potter County, they are probably 2-3 weeks away from that hitting the hospitals.
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Also keep in mind that the liberal cities are likely doing a way better job of flattening their curves, and Houston in particular has some really good/huge hospitals. Texas may be able to shift the burden toward the cities by airlifting cases into those hospitals if Houston’s own curve stays flat. This lets them avoid the hospital crunch.
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Last but not least, in NYC minus Staten Island Trump got about 16% of the vote. So chances are 80% of the population or higher knew this was serious and was acting accordingly, seeking medical care accordingly, etc. There are parts of Texas that are probably so Trumpy that people aren’t even worried about this and could very well die at home before they even think to go get tested or get medical treatment, especially given some of the stories you hear about how quickly things can take a turn for the worse. There’s no way in hell those local officials are testing those corpses. So that means no positive case, no COVID death.
So basically, IMO the only way we will really know for sure is once enough time has passed for a big hospital crunch, and the lag could be more than usual if people are seeking treatment at lower rates. There’s no way in hell Texas is actually running at 2.7% but there are various reasons why cases may not be getting counted, some sinister and some due to stupidity of the residents there.
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By the way, in the wake of the news about T-cells and the Moderna vaccine, my optimism is starting to return regarding the long-term. I feel like the risk of not developing immunity and/or going without a vaccine for more than 12-18 months is very low now, which was driving a lot of my fear.
I’m trying to accept that we have way more empathy for others than most Americans, and thus in terms of our society we’re the crazy ones for giving up a fuck that 500K to 1.5M people may die. Given that we live in a democracy (for at least 5.5 more months), we can’t impose our will on 40-50% of the population, nor can we make them intelligent, so we’re along for the ride and that’s just going to be the American way.
I’m not saying that’s a good thing, but I’m just trying to accept it and focus on myself and my loved ones, and then focus on helping some people who are less fortunate since I’ll have the resources to keep myself pretty safe for the next year. My thought is to donate locally to medical workers (send food to a hospital) and a food bank if/when things get really bad locally. If they don’t, maybe I’ll pick one of the places I used to live and pick a local charity there.
Beyond that, there’s just nothing we can do. Buckle up, stay alive, help some others, and try to protect your psyche from the human toll that most people in this country give zero fucks about unless it hits their immediate family.
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Hu Xijin, editor of [Chinese] Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times, said Trump was leading the US response to the pandemic with “witchcraft”.
Hu Xijin 胡锡进(@HuXijin_GT)
President Trump is leading the US’s struggle against pandemic with witchcraft, and as a result, more than 90,000 people have died. If it were in China, the White House would have been burned down by angry people. pic.twitter.com/QMs75Ix4DQ
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- Last but not least, in NYC minus Staten Island Trump got about 16% of the vote. So chances are 80% of the population or higher knew this was serious and was acting accordingly, seeking medical care accordingly, etc. There are parts of Texas that are probably so Trumpy that people aren’t even worried about this and could very well die at home before they even think to go get tested or get medical treatment, especially given some of the stories you hear about how quickly things can take a turn for the worse. There’s no way in hell those local officials are testing those corpses. So that means no positive case, no COVID death.
I think this is part is important and home deaths might be the answer to the CFR discrepancy. As you say, things can go south quickly and everyone wants to tough it out. What is the inflection point on who decides to go the hospital and when? It must be incredibly difficult to admit that your situation is dire and to go where the most sick, infected and dying are. Additionally the brutality of the American healthcare system is traumatic and people avoid the doctor all the time. I know personally that the idea of being hooked up to a ventilator is frightening. This is all balanced by the fact that at some point, you just can’t breathe and are desperate for help. Different populations may make different calculations for many reasons including ideology.
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The number of coronavirus cases in Russia has risen to nearly 300,000, with authorities registering more than 9,000 new infections after saying the virus situation had stabilised.
Health officials reported 9,263 new infections in the last 24 hours, bringing the total to 299,941, the second highest in the world after the United States .
The prime minister, Mikhail Mishustin , who along with several other senior officials has tested positive for the virus, said on Monday the country had stopped the growth of new infections but cautioned that the situation remains “difficult”.
Tuesday’s tally saw new cases fall below 10,000 for the fourth day in a row, after Monday’s count saw new infections under 9,000 for the first time since the beginning of May.
There were 115 new coronavirus fatalities since the last update on Monday, bringing Russia’s total to 2,837.
Critics have cast doubt on Russia’s low official mortality rate, accusing authorities of under-reporting in order to play down the scale of the crisis.
Russian health officials say one of the reasons the count is lower than in the United States and parts of western Europe is that only deaths directly caused by the virus are being included.
Authorities also say that since the virus came later to Russia, there was more time to prepare hospital beds and launch wide-scale testing to slow the spread.
British unemployment jumped in the first quarter on the back of coronavirus, despite a lockdown being imposed only near the end of the period, official data has shown.
The total number of unemployed people rose 50,000 to 1.3 million in three months to March from a year earlier, the Office for National Statistics said.
Authorities in eastern India and Bangladesh were relocating tens of thousands of villagers away from the coastline on Tuesday ahead of a super cyclone that is expected to inflict large-scale damage as both countries struggle to contain the coronavirus.
Coronavirus quarantine shelters in India were being converted to cyclone shelters, leaving authorities to manage social distancing to try and prevent the spread of coronavirus.
In neighbouring Bangladesh, officials were moving people to higher ground and urged them to maintain social distance and wear masks as the country has recorded over 20,995 coronavirus cases and 314 deaths so far.
India’s weather office said the super cyclone Amphan had reached winds of up to 240 kmh (145 mph) with gusts of around 265 kph (165 mph) over the Bay of Bengal on Monday night and was expected to make a landfall on Wednesday.
Such wind speeds, according to weather officials, could make Amphan one of the biggest storms to hit Indian in about a decade.
A cyclone preparedness programme volunteer urges residents to evacuate to shelters ahead of the expected landfall of cyclone Amphan in Khulna, Bangladesh. Photograph: Kazi Shanto/AFP via Getty Images
The cyclone comes as India eased the world’s biggest lockdown imposed in April to contain the coronavirus which has infected more than 100,000 people in the country and killed 3,163.
The states of Odisha and West Bengal were moving families to more than 1,000 shelters in government offices and educational centres, and were hastily converting coronavirus quarantine centres into cyclone shelters.
SG Rai, an official in federal disaster management office, told Reuters:
We have just about six hours left to evacuate people from their homes and we also have to maintain social distancing norms … the cyclone could wash away thousands of huts and standing crop.
In neighbouring Bangladesh, officials intensified rescue operations as the cyclone could trigger the worst storm in about 15 years along the country’s low-lying coast.
“We have prepared 12,000 cyclone centres, where more than five million people can take shelter. We have also taken necessary steps so that people can maintain distance and wear masks,” said Enamur Rahman , the junior minister for disaster management and relief in the capital, Dhaka.
The number of new coronavirus cases in the Czech Republic showed its biggest daily rise in four weeks and climbed above 100 for the first time this month.
The health ministry said 111 new cases had been recorded on Monday, bringing the total in the central European country to 8,586. It reported no new deaths, leaving the toll at 297.
The Czech Republic, like others in central Europe, closed schools, shops and borders when the outbreak started in March and has seen a increase in the number of people recovering.
Authorities have been reopening the economy in recent weeks by reopening most shops along with cinemas, theatres and outdoor dining places.
There are plans to let restaurants open indoor areas next week.
The government is also planning to ease travel to and from countries deemed safe from risks of coronavirus from 8 June, the health minister, Adam Vojt ě ch , said on Monday.
Farmers in China are being offered cash to stop breeding exotic animals as pressure grows to crack down on the illegal wildlife trade that has been blamed for the coronavirus outbreak.
Authorities have for the first time pledged to buy out breeders in an attempt to curb the practice, animal rights activists say.
China has in recent months banned the sale of wild animals for food, citing the risk of diseases spreading to humans, but the trade remains legal for other purposes including research and traditional medicine.
The deadly coronavirus – first reported in the central Chinese city of Wuhan – is widely believed to have passed from bats to people before spreading worldwide.
Two central provinces have outlined details of a buyout programme to help farmers transition to alternative livelihoods.
Hunan on Friday set out a compensation scheme to persuade breeders to rear other livestock, or produce tea and herbal medicines.
Authorities are offering to pay 120 yuan ($16) per kilogram of cobra, king rattlesnake or rat snake, while a kilogram of bamboo rat will fetch 75 yuan.
A civet cat – the animal believed to have carried Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (Sars) to humans in another coronavirus outbreak nearly two decades ago – is worth 600 yuan.
Neighbouring Jiangxi province has also released documents on plans to help farmers dispose of animals and financial aid.
Both Jiangxi and Hunan border Hubei, the province where the coronavirus first emerged in December.
Animal rights group Humane Society International (HSI) said Hunan and Jiangxi are “major wildlife breeding provinces”, with Jiangxi seeing a rapid expansion of the trade over the last decade.
Revenues from breeding reached 10bn yuan in 2018, it said.
HSI China policy specialist Peter Li told AFP that similar plans should be rolled out across the country.
But he cautioned that Hunan’s proposals leave room for farmers to continue breeding exotic creatures as long as the animals are not sent to food markets. The province’s plan also does not include many wild animals bred for fur, traditional Chinese medicine or entertainment.
Li said Chinese authorities are nevertheless moving in the right direction.
In the past 20 years, a lot of people have been telling the Chinese government to buy out certain wildlife breeding operations, for example bear farming.
This is the first time that the Chinese government actually decided to do it, which opens a precedent… (for when) other production needs to be phased out.
Tanzania’s divisive president, John Magufuli , has said the economy is “more important than the threat posed by coronavirus”, adding that he wants to reopen the country for tourism despite warnings that Africa could face the next wave of the disease.
The comments by Magufuli, who has modelled his populist response on that of Donald Trump and Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro – in repeatedly denying the risk of the pandemic to his country – come amid mounting alarm among Tanzania’s neighbours over his approach.
So far there have been 21 officially recorded Covid-19 deaths in Tanzania.
Magufuli made the remarks on Sunday during a mass in his hometown of Chato , where he said he intended to keep Tanzania’s borders open with its eight neighbours. The remarks follow a series of statements in recent weeks minimising the threat of coronavirus.
The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in Germany rose by 513 to 175,210, data from the Robert Koch Institute for infectious diseases shows, with new infections accelerating after decelerating the previous four days.
The reported death toll rose by 72 to 8,007, the tally showed.
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My thesis is simple and it’s been the same the whole time. Red states are going to do what they can to juke the stats to justify both their own actions of opening up early and the actions of their supporters. I mean the governor of Texas basically pardoned a hairdresser directly defying their stay at home order due to the cries of AM radio and Trump supporters. I’m not sure what more proof you need that these governors are acutely aware of the interests they actually serve than that.
Like others have said they likely aren’t cheating a ton but Texas should have roughly 3x more deaths than what they have reported based on the number of tests they report doing and positive cases they report. Over the last two months we have heard Trump, the governors and the AM radio/Fox news morons spend a lot of time questioning the mortality rate of Covid-19. That it is just the flu. That it is a liberal conspiracy to make things seem worse that they are and specifically that people with comorbities should not be counted. We also have evidence there is pressure from the White House to do exactly that though the Dr. Birx story that broke last week where she has been calling the governors requesting they count less deaths. Now if these morons don’t think misrepresenting reality is important to them politically why would she do that?
Lastly if your only metric is whether or not hospitals are overrun we are talking about two different things. You keep posting about the “trends” in Georgia based on the data. And then every time it is pointed out to you why that may not matter much your reasoning is that well the hospitals aren’t overrun so how bad could it be.
The answer is really fucking bad man. At our peak we were doing 2600 confirmed deaths a day and probably undercounting by quite a bit. The hospitals basically weren’t overrun except in NYC. Worldwide we have really only heard about hospital overruns in 3 cities. Now even with getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS there is very little likelihood in my opinion of the hospitals being overrun anytime soon. R > 1 but it is way way way lower than it was on March 1. Some mask wearing, kids not in school, no in person sporting events or concerts, a lot of people WFH, some people not going out, and yes possibly summer, etc.
You seem to have this misconception that these places are going to blow up precisely at 2-3 weeks after Chili’s reopened and 25% of people start crawling out of their holes. That isn’t going to be how this works. It is going to be slow growth over time this time around. Whether or not that ever eventually overwhelms hospitals I have no idea but there is basically no chance we see some massive wave happen within even a month of these places opening. It will be a slow long burn this time around because some of us are doing better at not spreading it.
Which gets back to my ultimate point which is that juking the stats some would not at all be hard. It won’t be hard because it isn’t likely we see some massive surge this time. It will be a much more slow boil. All they have to do is literally follow White House guidance and stop counting deaths with comorbidities. Their followers also want them to do it and have literally been crying about how deaths are being counted as covid that shouldn’t be for months.
The data also happens to back up that theory. States with the same levels of testing should have roughly the same CFR. States with less testing should have higher CFRs because they are catching less mild positive cases before they get to the hospital. What we actually see in the data is the opposite. These three states are all average or below average in testing and yet somehow miraculously have the lowest CFRs in the country.
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Put me down as those three plus Maryland as highly suspicious.
I am putting a lot of stock in the newspapers getting to the bottom of things, at least in Florida and Georgia.
If I had to guess there are a lot of deaths in nursing homes that aren’t being classified as Covid when they should. They aren’t going to the hospital either.
I also would not be surprised if hospitals were struggling more than is publicized.
Eventually deaths above normal will become the metric.
But we are reopening when:
The states that got really bad while have come down markedly are still at fairly high infection rates per population.
Many states either have true bad stats (iowa Illinois) or have stats too good to be true.
Weather moderation may hide things and allow for a silent slow growth decline like embers just waiting to restart the fire.
Conflagration is just a matter of time.
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This. Strikes are a lesser part of MMA than boxing and the fights are much shorter. MMA fighters get hit way less often than boxers as they often start learning the sport at a much older age whereas boxers can start as young as 3 years old in some countries. On top of that, there is no amateur MMA scene like there is with boxing. Before people even become pro boxers, they have hundreds of amateur fights and God knows how many rounds of sparring. That’s not the case with MMA.
Boxers also tend to fight longer than MMAers. Oliver McCall is 52 years old and is still boxing professionally in the heavyweight divisions. While outliers like Randy Couture exist in MMA, he hardly had as many fights as McCall. Hell, there are boxers in their early 20s who had more fighting experience than Couture had in his entire career.
There’s more swelling and bruises in MMA due to the smaller gloves but way more brain trauma in boxing as fighters can throw harder punches more frequently and with greater commitment over a longer period of time. It’s hard to commit more to punches in MMA because if you overcommit, you risk being taken down. Boxers can fire away without worrying about any of that.
Not saying that brain trauma isn’t an issue in MMA. Listen to Nate Diaz talk and tell me he doesn’t have any issues. But I don’t know of any MMAers off the top of my head with noticeable brain trauma aside from Nate. On the other hand, it’s pretty easy to find athletes suffering from brain trauma in boxing, football, and pro wrestling.
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