In the simplest terms, it searches for the most likely curve of Rt that produced the new cases per day that we observe. It does this through some neat (and powerful!) math that is beyond the scope of this FAQ. In more complex terms: we assume a seed number of people and a curve of Rt over the history of the pandemic, we then distribute those cases into the future using a known delay distribution between infection and positive report. We then scale and add noise based on known testing volumes via a negative binomial with an exposure parameter for a given day to recover an observed series. We plan on publishing our code soon, so if you’re so inclined you’ll be able to run it, too.
So what they’re doing is trying to actually create a model of an Rt curve that explains the current situation. I’m just taking the raw data and calculating an Rt based on the last 28 days of cases.
Are we going back to Rt now? Cause I think that’s accurate, but being badly outnumbered by people using R0, I just acquiesced.
I’ll leave R0 vs. Rt to the scientists. I’m going to check their Rt vs. my SDI graphs later tonight out of curiosity. SC lined up with their spike of cases beginning in that mid-May area (though they were still right on the target SDI line).
Yea, I feel like I’m pretty careful in general, but I don’t wear a mask golfing. I haven’t shared a cart with anyone but my wife, but have played in the same group as others. Maybe I’m overconfident on the advantages of being outside?
“It’s not all women” does not defend using disgusting and offensive language to refer to women. As for your “perception of my range” you can go fuck yourself.
I do worry that golf in particular would probably have you within 5-15 feet of people twice per hole. Even when trying to distance, it’s not perfect and the habit when golfing is to be near other people on the side of the tee box or green, so it’s not natural instinct to distance.
Im saying Known 0.33% (3.3/1,000). I don’t trust the recovered numbers so I just do a simple 14 day sum since that is roughly the infectious period.
If we use a 5x (unknown to known) that is about 1.5%. I would then assume some fraction are sick and staying home or hospitalized so I would ballpark that 1% of the people you see in public are carriers.
Disinfecting wipes or Lysol-sprayed paper towels on all packaging. Fruit without packaging sits a couple days before eating. For things that can have packaging removed and still be OK, do that, trash the packaging, and then that’s enough.
It’s pretty ridiculous how “pozzed” as a 22 meme only had modest staying power before fading to almost total disuse but has come roaring back to relevance these days.
