Exactly. The problem is that many states OFB at their peak.
Well, their current peak.
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Oh yeah, I’m not suggesting it was/is a GOOD IDEA to be open for business in lots of places, seeing how there isn’t one curve but rather a thousand local curves, but I suspect it we’re going to get worked up into a tizzy every time a state starts seeing increased cases/hospitalizations, we’re going to be perma-tizzed.
Definitely less humidity. Maybe going from hot dry air to cold dry air conditioned air isn’t great either.
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Kind of the point itt
Yeah, I’m pretty sure I pointed this out last month:
Black counties and Native American counties are getting hung out to dry and not getting much press.
The vast majority of the early reopening states are accelerating now. There are hardly any states who have a flat curve and it is absurd to suggest that somehow the “flatten the curve” approach on the state level is happening much of anywhere. On the national data you have states with lots of restriction NY/NJ/MI/IL all noticeably trending down. On the other hand you have a lot of early reopening states heading up. It might look flat on the national data because these things are balancing out. Once the few states with heavy restrictions end them you will see the national trend tick up again if not sooner.
Here are some of the examples of states who have eased restrictions and the results:
None of the data will matter, Regarbagecans will soon be blaming all new cases on black lives mattering, full stop. All other inputs will be summarily ignored.
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No doubt. But there was never going to be a point where you got Trump and the Republicans to take any blame. If it wasn’t BLM it would have been scary immigrants or Dem governors and mayors. So I’m not sure how this matters all that much. Trump already laid the groundwork to make excuses back in April when he left it up to local government on what to do.
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I’m surprised the tweet hasn’t already gone out
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I think to anyone who bothers to think about it that would be a very hard thing to sell. Will the protesting cause an increase? Sure. But we are talking about what maybe 2m people nationwide are doing outdoors with masks on. Meanwhile you have 10s of millions out living large at restaurants, bars, parties, etc. 95% of which don’t wear masks. The BLM stuff is going to be persuasive to the types of voters that were already voting Trump. And I’m not sure Trump wants to keep the protests in the news cycle that much. He seems to be losing ground over them.
You can sell it to a conspiratorial mind I think, even a somewhat apolitical one otherwise. I mean the protestors are going to come into contact with other protestors who are infected, and they’re going to go on to infect others who didn’t protest. We know this, we just don’t know to what degree yet (and maybe we never truly will, contact tracing still being what it is). But in an election year I have no doubt it will be overblown whatever the real number and played up for maximum effect. We’ll see how persuasive it is, I guess.
Damn man the problem with my argument was right in the first sentence lol.
i hope you didn’t spend too much time coming up with that 
Over half the country will blame the protesters. “That cop was wrong, but giving everyone coronavirus killed a lot more people!”
Trump will end up saying something like “They said we’d have 2.5 million cases, I kept it to 60,000, ok? 60,000. The other 940,000 were Antifa and Black Lives Matter spreading it so they could blame Trump.”
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Right but as I posted above there was always going to be an excuse. Not to mention if you are going to run on how smart you were to get OPEN FOR BUSINESS it is tough to then turn around and say it wasn’t safe to protest. I know, I know I am looking at this from a logical standpoint when it will likely be purely emotional. Not to mention logical inconsistency is basically the hallmark of the right at this point.
Arizona with another huge 1400+ number today. On a weekend when numbers are typically lower. Sure seems like a trend at this point that you can’t just explain by having more tests processed one particular day.
You nailed it at the end. They were always going to find a way to blame Dems and it was always going to work for their base.
Not only will all new cases be blamed on the protests, the new cases will be used as an excuse to crush them.
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On the protesting thing, I heard some doctor on CNN talking about how racism causes 80,000 excess black deaths a year in the U.S., so it’s well worth protesting even if it increases transmission rates for COVID somewhat. I think this is a great way to frame it. It won’t convince deplorable types, but you know what? Fuck them.
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