COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

[Rugby]

@RiskyFlush

Funny how some things change, others stay the same. Our boy rugby been GOATing up the COVID analysis since as early as Jan 25.

@Rugby

I’m trying not to panic. Just to dispassionately look at the facts.

Here’s where I am.

1. Literally every doctor working in this field has been warning about exactly this scenario since SARS.
2. Our understanding of these types of epidemics is pretty straightforward. It really is a numbers game. If this spreads easily, has a moderately high death rate, and impacts healthy adults, then this will be bad.
3. My understanding of our current political situation is that we are not well equipped to respond, even in developed world countries.

People are really bad at understanding exponential growth. That’s what we are looking at here.

And my prize for predicting a global world wide calamity before 99.9% of the world… is…

This shout out from you…

Somehow we got to find a way to monetize the braintrust here.

EDIT.

On the other hand. Given I we couldn’t know aus was gonna luckbox it. Taking early precautions probably earned my 80 year old dad a couple of sklansky years of life expectancy.