What percentage of those people aren’t getting out of the pool to pee?
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I just got a new LinkedIn notification.
This guy is a dvm and has been trying to sound all scientific. Apparently my (very gentle) smackdowns have elicited his true character:
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O\U 50%
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Funny how some things change, others stay the same. Our boy rugby been GOATing up the COVID analysis since as early as Jan 25.
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Further to the discussion of school opening. Here’s a summary of a paper about lockdowns with regards to limiting interactions, published after that BMJ article was written. (Along with one about viral load by age.) It’s not mine, but it seems accurate.
Children are less prone to catch the Covid-19 disease. Within households in China their chance of getting infected was only 30% of the average chance for all household members. For individuals over 65 years of age the chance was 150% of the household average. Children who catch the Coronavirus have in general only very mild symptoms. But they carry the same load of viruses as grownups do. That means that they are generally as infectious as adults.
During a normal school day a child will have often intense contact with some 47 other individuals. Typical adults only have some 15 inter-human contacts during a normal work day. That is why children, even when less susceptible to the disease, are still a very important epidemic vector. While closing schools can not completely interrupt an epidemic and is expensive it can lower the epidemic’s peak by some 60%.
I’ve read the BMJ opinion linked earlier, I don’t see where they address specifically this point—that even if children are less likely to catch it school seems to be a very good place for it to spread. They do discuss studies that show children not being disproportionate index cases in households, but from what I just looked at the studies they cite include places where schools were shut. It seems still sensible that if you get it under control first then school is about as bad as offices, public transport, etc., which will be opened up gradually.
Personally our kid is out from daycare and we’ll think again in September. By then I hope there’s more on the possible weirder side effects and long term damage, and we’ll have a month or so on what opening schools here (France) actually did to spread.
(What I linked is data from China, but then so are some studies used by the BMJ.)
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Obviously you keep the grandparents away from infectious kids, but there will be some tough decisions where parents are much more at risk than their children. Like with me at 52 if I have an infectious 18yo kid it would be hard enough to stay away and that’s a slam dunk. I assume 35 year olds aren’t going to stay away from their 3 year olds.
Dunno where that sign was posted, but the chances of it not being submerged in a body of water at this exact moment are approximately 0%
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30% of average chance of contracting isn’t low enough to open schools at all soon.
30% of average plus mild symptoms is pretty good. The real question is about transmission to the rest of the family.
If they carry the same viral load as suggested you are going to have a lot of orphans.
Not sure if I was ponied but interferon is generally not well tolerated and has tons of nasty side effects. It’s also quite expensive. Not likely it will be thrown around willy-nilly unless the effects are dramatic but I could see it carving out a role.
3:41 p.m.: Around 35% of people with COVID-19 believed to be asymptomatic
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention now estimate that about 35% of people with COVID-19 don’t exhibit symptoms, a significant jump compared to what health officials initially thought.
The CDC also estimated that 40% of transmission is believed to occur before the onset of any symptoms.
The disclosure raises serious concerns about how states and local officials can prevent outbreaks if about a third of Americans infected by the virus don’t know it.
Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, said scientists had initially worked under the impression that around 11% to 15% of cases were asymptomatic.
She said the knowledge about potential transmission was a good reason to impose widespread testing in some communities, like nursing homes and meatpacking plants, where social distancing is difficult.
“Now we know it’s at least 35 [percent]. It may be greater than that because it may be so age dependent – that there may be a lot of people under 30 that have the virus and are shedding the virus and aren’t aware that they have the virus,” she said.
The CDC said the estimate will likely change as the agency learns more about the virus.
It’s a sad world now when I read something from CDC and say, ya ok sure but please show me the data and methods.
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Context?
CDC wants America to be open for business.
I mean if 40% has it already then #HerdImmunity
And unfortunately what I have seen and heard about other gyms and how they have handled things in practice versus theory is probably going to make it much harder to get his wish.
The problem with gyms, and most all businesses really, is that the business owners find it extremely difficult to enforce a zero tolerance policy on adhering to health and safety guidelines for Covid. People know this and since a large percentage of us suck they push back and things break down quickly.
It is a really tough spot to be in but most people find it difficult to workout to start with so adding all sorts of restrictions and limitations is going to quickly make most people disinterested. The gym industry can not sustain itself on just the determination of the most hardcore. Plus even if gyms follow all the guidelines I am not convinced at all they still won’t be spreading the virus.
I agree his plan is detailed and well thought out but I am curious about something that was not covered and is usually not covered. Can a business like that break even serving only 8-10 people at a time. This is entirely dependent on the facility and the math of their operation but many businesses won’t be able to come close to break even. I realize it potentially buys time for a treatment etc, but to me it is potentially pushing disaster from July to August.
I know many small business owners can not deal with the reality that this is going to go on for much longer than they hope or that a second wave doesn’t blow things up. They have to focus on one day at a time and staying in business. I think a lot of businesses are going to be crushed by the pandemic and a huge number of jobs lost for the long term. Just having people say “open up” does not fix this problem, especially not if death’s spiked again.
There is one idea that would have potentially made reopening much safer and viable and potentially allowed businesses to expand their openings on faster timeline. For a number of reasons though, the people who run the country and the states are fully incapable of doing it. Not trying to be sly about it. It is tracking and tracing. This was a good option in February and would be a good option in June. As far as I know there is no concerted effort for anyone to properly do both any time soon, but maybe I will be surprised. Certainly makes me believe most of the people screaming about “economy” are full of shit and this has been a pretty obvious guide rail from the beginning. Combine this with a population where 30% of people think any thought of safety is a political move by liberals to ruin their lives and WAAF.
That’s not what they’re saying though. I think you must have misread.
Yeah I did.
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