COVID-19: Chapter 4 - OPEN FOR BUSINESS

[cassette]

That poor kid.

[anon38180840]

@Marksman

If at least a third of your body is underwater, you can not get Covid. I thought everyone knew this?

This is true, it just has to be the right third of your body.

@suzzer99

I really feel for the guy. This is the most detailed plan I’ve ever seen. But man - 10 people sweating and breathing so hard it feels like your long us going to pop out of your chest (at least for me), for an hour, is just such a rough situation. I guess the best thing in his favor is most participants are like 25-40 and very fit already.

No mention whatsoever of airflow, a/c, filtration, etc?

@suzzer99

I’ve been really down lately thinking about all the small business owners just getting crushed by this. California is for the most part doing the right thing, and not allowing higher risk places to open up. But it has to be so tough right now, not knowing how long they have the scrounge through. And of course Republicans are going to block any more support $$ because they want us all to get back out there and die for the economy.

Me too, but keep in mind that if all similar businesses go out of business, all of that commercial space will be available (and likely cheaper) when it’s safe to start over. Keep in mind that demand will return. So, basically, it might not be as hard to “start over” as one would think. Let these people collect unemployment, and if they were smart and put money away while making good money running a business, they should be able to restart it when this is over - even if they go out of business now.

@suzzer99

image467×960 114 KB

Jesus Christ, the justice who said that was a Know Nothing back in the day. Wow, how far the Know Nothing coalition has fallen.

@Danspartan

Um this is how science works. It’s a feature not a big especially in the arena of public heath where anything wishy washy screams “ignore this”.

They damned if they do and damned if they don’t sound confident and end up wrong.

Especially when they are having to counteract the idiot in chief.

Right, but it doesn’t mean we have to push our entire bankroll in on each of their current beliefs based on the limited information we have. In this case, “entire bankroll” means like lung capacity, kidney function, etc for the rest of our lives.

But I think you agree with that, and I agree that they’re damned if they do and damned if they don’t right now.

[anon38180840]

Thank you for making us richer, here’s 25 cents worth of candy to make you feel better about working through the pandemic from the virus that kills the obese disproportionately.

[Danspartan]

No new entries lately. Got into a couple of mild pissing matches on LinkedIn with OFB idiots.

beacomconsulting.com/covid19 I think.

[anon38180840]

@prana

99284181_2981421398638021_5893814432949075968_o1080×1618 105 KB

For those wondering, no the outbreaks in churches won’t matter to a huge percentage of these people. They’ll assume that those people were living in sin, weren’t true believers, etc. So they’ll just judge them and keep on keeping on with their supernatural protection.

[Coasterbrad]

Those parents should be thrown in jail. Kids that are raised like that have to really get lucky to break free from the brainwashing.

[wheatrich]

Jeez, no wonder they’re telling people that we have to open things back up everywhere.

[Danspartan]

I concur. Being overly confident on the side of caution is OK for public health.

Dr Birx is not a scientist btw. If fact the only scientist we see talking to Fauci and he’s contorted in pretzel.

[prana]

I was raised Lutheran (Missouri Synod) and agree. We used to get fed shit like Hells Bells about music. I burned CDs (or cassettes maybe?) once because of lolSatan. Luckily I found out that weed wasn’t the “your brain on drugs” experience it was made out to be and found psychedelics and a great logic class in college.

Hell's Bells: The Dangers of Rock 'N' Roll

[Danspartan]

https://twitter.com/orinkerr/status/1264662920958365696?s=21

[CanadaMatt3004]

BTW, Memorial Day Massacre is the perfect name for this weekend.

[CanadaMatt3004]

Look at how proud those smug motherfuckers are.

Its cool though, pride isn’t a sin, right?

[Smacc_25]

Our bubble may be about to crack…

https://mobile.twitter.com/JimMFelton/status/1264634124238716932

Unfortunately even if he and BJ goes, it will be the same sack of shits running the UK.

https://mobile.twitter.com/MaggieOaks/status/1264658789371973636

[eyebooger]

What percentage of those people aren’t getting out of the pool to pee?

[RiskyFlush]

[Danspartan]

I just got a new LinkedIn notification.

This guy is a dvm and has been trying to sound all scientific. Apparently my (very gentle) smackdowns have elicited his true character:

[Tilted]

O\U 50%

[prana]

Hell's Bell's - The Dangers of Rock 'N' Roll - Part 1 of 18

[RiskyFlush]

Funny how some things change, others stay the same. Our boy rugby been GOATing up the COVID analysis since as early as Jan 25.

@Rugby

I’m trying not to panic. Just to dispassionately look at the facts.

Here’s where I am.

1. Literally every doctor working in this field has been warning about exactly this scenario since SARS.
2. Our understanding of these types of epidemics is pretty straightforward. It really is a numbers game. If this spreads easily, has a moderately high death rate, and impacts healthy adults, then this will be bad.
3. My understanding of our current political situation is that we are not well equipped to respond, even in developed world countries.

People are really bad at understanding exponential growth. That’s what we are looking at here.

[pyatnitski]

Further to the discussion of school opening. Here’s a summary of a paper about lockdowns with regards to limiting interactions, published after that BMJ article was written. (Along with one about viral load by age.) It’s not mine, but it seems accurate.

Children are less prone to catch the Covid-19 disease. Within households in China their chance of getting infected was only 30% of the average chance for all household members. For individuals over 65 years of age the chance was 150% of the household average. Children who catch the Coronavirus have in general only very mild symptoms. But they carry the same load of viruses as grownups do. That means that they are generally as infectious as adults.

During a normal school day a child will have often intense contact with some 47 other individuals. Typical adults only have some 15 inter-human contacts during a normal work day. That is why children, even when less susceptible to the disease, are still a very important epidemic vector. While closing schools can not completely interrupt an epidemic and is expensive it can lower the epidemic’s peak by some 60%.

I’ve read the BMJ opinion linked earlier, I don’t see where they address specifically this point—that even if children are less likely to catch it school seems to be a very good place for it to spread. They do discuss studies that show children not being disproportionate index cases in households, but from what I just looked at the studies they cite include places where schools were shut. It seems still sensible that if you get it under control first then school is about as bad as offices, public transport, etc., which will be opened up gradually.

Personally our kid is out from daycare and we’ll think again in September. By then I hope there’s more on the possible weirder side effects and long term damage, and we’ll have a month or so on what opening schools here (France) actually did to spread.

(What I linked is data from China, but then so are some studies used by the BMJ.)