Ffs links
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Does Pi come before Phi?
How many reinfections have there been?
According to the latest figures for England from the UKHSA, from the start of the pandemic up to 9 January this year there were 425,890 possible reinfections, with 109,936 found in the week ending 9 January, accounting for almost 11% of all cases that week.
Very few possible reinfections are “confirmed” as that requires genetic sequencing. What’s more, with few people in the community having access to tests in the first wave, many first infections may not have been counted.
“With the combination of being two years into the pandemic, a few rounds of antibody waning, two major waves of immune evasion by Delta and then Omicron, there’s fairly rampant reinfection,” said Prof Danny Altmann, a professor of immunology at Imperial College London.
Well, that’s not good.
Really depends on how many mutations affect the spike protein.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but when everything is “back to normal”, I recommend that you wash post mat session with that MRSA fighting soap (Hibclens?). Even high quality schools can struggle with disease transfer on the mats.
So remember the study that I criticized for be shitty yesterday? Here’s how you write that type of study competently.
That preprint wouldn’t ever be published in a reputable journal in its current form
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The original Omicron has 50+ mutations, 32 are in the spike protein. So if they’re comparing to that 32 number, I assume the 28 are also spike protein mutations.
So according to one Twitter thread, BA.2 is the dominant thread in India and Denmark, and is growing in South Africa. But in most places, BA.1 is maintaining dominance so far… which seems odd.
https://twitter.com/vipintukur/status/1482949457675448321
Could be a lot of noise for now, I guess. It’s also possible it’s more prevalent in other places and just not being sequenced/detected yet.
There’s also speculation that it has less antigenic escape from OG Covid and Delta than BA.1 has, so if it doesn’t escape BA.1 infection-acquired immunity, it should be less of a problem than BA.1 Omicron in the current real world.
https://twitter.com/vipintukur/status/1482948825035980803
If it escapes BA.1 Omicron, but has less vaccine escape, then it looks like we’re in for another surge similar to the one we just saw but less bad for vaccinated people.
As we discussed yesterday, I still suspect that even if an Omicron infection doesn’t offer lasting protective immunity vs. BA.2, there’s going to be some short-term protection.
Even when variants don’t protect against each other, we see several months between surges, so there’s gotta be some explanation for that, and it seems the most likely is that there’s short-term protection for at least a month or two.
And an article about the rise of preprint science
https://twitter.com/clarewhatson/status/1483964128763183106?s=21
Yeah, I dont really see another round of boosters for BA.2 being in the cards based on what’s out there to date. Dont see it getting its own variant designation yet based on how variant naming has worked to date. Obviously we should be collecting data/information, but Im more concerned about finding out how long Omicron immunity lasts at this point than the sublineage breakdown.
You don’t think we’re doing variant-specific boosters for OG BA.1 Omicron in 2022? (I assume those will provide ample protection for BA.2 as well.)
I thought he was talking about a more near-term booster specifically because of BA.2. Omicron booster later this year, sure, very possible.
Recency IMO, hence the need for a more recent booster if stealth omicron makes a march. I doubt the boosters currently in arms will be protecting against symptmatic infection by the time Omicron specific boosters are released in Autumn (might still be good against death for the under 60’s thou’)
Headline 90% against death - like all the other studies done by ‘other countries’ a few months ago
Behind the headline
Three US studies released on Friday have offered more evidence that Covid-19 vaccines are standing up to the Omicron variant, at least among people who have received booster shots.
The Associated Press reports that they are the first large US studies to look at vaccine protection against Omicron, health officials said. The papers echo previous research — including studies in Germany, South Africa and the UK — indicating available vaccines are less effective against Omicron than earlier versions of the coronavirus, but also that boosters significantly improve protection.
The first study looked at hospitalisations and emergency room and urgent care centre visits in 10 states, from August to this month. It found vaccine effectiveness was best after three doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines in preventing Covid-19-associated emergency department and urgent care visits.
Protection dropped from 94% during the Delta wave to 82% during the Omicron wave. Protection from just two doses was lower, especially if six months had passed since the second dose.
The second study focused on Covid-19 case and death rates in 25 states from the beginning of April through Christmas. People who were boosted had the highest protection against coronavirus infection, both during the time delta was dominant and also when omicron was taking over. Those two articles were published online by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Journal of the American Medical Association published the third study, also led by CDC researchers. It looked at people who tested positive for Covid-19 from 10 December 10 to 1 January at more than 4,600 testing sites across the U.S.
Three shots of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were about 67% effective against Omicron-related symptomatic disease compared with unvaccinated people. Two doses, however, offered no significant protection against omicron, the researchers found. “It really shows the important of getting a booster dose,” said the CDC’s Emma Accorsi, one of the study’s authors.
For anyone incapable of hovering over the blue bits, source: Guardian Live
Before I open Greg’s link below, I have heard 10 weeks before waning (hence my recency statement)…
mmm, 3-4 months re-boostering seems optimal.
But that protection falls quickly. By three months, the booster reduces the risk of a symptomatic infection only by about 50%.
In a second analysis, the U.K. researchers estimate the protection will decline even further, dropping to about 40% about four months after the third shot.
No.
I think we will see some fading too, but I dont think boosting the population every three months is going to be a sustainable course of action either and I have more optimism in prior boosters preventing (not eliminating) bad outcomes for the elderly.
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I’ve seen some talk that vaccinating too frequently can wear down the immune system. Is that a thing, @CaffeineNeeded?
If so, it seems like 3-4 months would be suboptimal. Maybe 6 months, but if we’re being realistic, getting half the country to boost once a year would be tremendous.
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