COVID-19: Chapter 10 - Mission Achomlished!

We Mericans are resilient and proud people. We’ll stretch these four (what is that a one week supply?) tests out over months just like we made a couple thousand stimulus dollars last six months.

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Anecdotally, a lot of people on Twitter were saying that they tested negative on an at-home test, then tested again by swabbing their throats and tested positive. It’s kind of gross, but some doctors on Twitter suggested swabbing your throat first, then both nostrils.

Better than the reverse imo.

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No kink shaming

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Arent you only supposed to use your nose for Rapid tests? There was a bunch of reporting of faking false positives with acidic liquids which break down one of the reactants…

Some more early work on Omicron immunity

Looks like good news if you happen to get a breakthrough infection, not so great news if you are just an unvaxxed that catches Omicron. Will have to wait on reinfection severity to see what the next Omicron wave will be like for healthcare systems.

Other bad news is that it looks like Omicron in an unvaxxed might not provide much Delta immunity, which is problematic for bringing pandemic to an end with current vax rates and perhaps leaves, in particular, low vaxxed areas vulnerable to a Delta wave as Omicron wanes.

The question arises whether rampant spread of Omicron could lead to mass immunization, accelerating the end of the pandemic. Here we show that infection with Delta, but not Omicron, induces broad immunity in mice. While sera from Omicron-infected mice only neutralize Omicron, sera from Delta-infected mice are broadly effective against Delta and other VOCs, including Omicron.

Also looks like maybe shot number 4 (new variant dependent) should maybe be an Omicron/Delta combo booster.

Thread linked has a second study with similar early findings.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1483447774293237761

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What am I missing about the importance of omicron infection providing immunity against delta? Isn’t everything like 100% omicron now? Why would delta come back if this new thing is just beating the doors off it?

Everything is Omicron now. Once it rips through the susceptible population we will have to see what the advantage is over Delta if that wave generates Omicron immunity and not Delta immunity. Too early to tell. Could create a fertile ground for son of Delta lineages too I would think. Just not ideal news for the hopes that a more mild to some extent Omicron variant could immunize everyone and cut off future waves of other variants. Decent news for boosted and breakthrough people though, seems likely to be well protected vs omicron in the short term at least.

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Yeah, the CDC is currently estimating that 99.5 percent of infections in the US are Omicron. That means that even on an absolute scale delta infections have plunged at a time you would expect them to surge (after the holidays during the winter). If that 99.5 percent is correct that seems like pretty strong circumstantial evidence to me that Omicron infection provides immunity from delta.

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That’s the standard, yes. Apparently Omicron is more in the throat than the nose, though, and antigen tests aren’t as sensitive as PCR tests.

Hmm, so acids in the throat could cause a false positive?

Well, borax is a base so taking a borax bath won’t cause a false positive. To be sure, though, anti-vaxxers should try gargling with borax before a test to neutralize any acids and avoid a false positive.

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Because if ~everyone has 3-6 months of Omicron immunity, but only the vaccinated and previously Delta-infected have Delta immunity, suddenly Delta doesn’t have to outcompete Omicron for 3-6 months.

It could provide immunity for a shorter period of time, like say a month.

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Yes, this is definitely true. The durability of any immunity is an open question.

I asked this before and maybe somebody answered it, but if Omicron doesn’t confer Delta immunity, how is it “outcompeting” Delta? Wouldn’t that involve infecting people so they can’t then get Delta?

Very weird: my son had a third positive antigentest today (three different kinds), but the PCR ohne came back negative.
We were very confused and called our pediatrician who was likewise confused. As he suspected the people at the testing site might not have swabbed correctly to „go easy“ on an 8-year old, he asked us to come to his office tomorrow before regular hours to get a second test.

Rest of the family still negative. I will resume going to work tomorrow as that is the guideline for people who are triple-vaxxed, symptom-free and habe a negative antigentest on the same day.

Right, that was my point as well. But @anon38180840 is also correct that we don’t know how long the immunity lasts. So if it provides immunity for like, just the few weeks taht your antibody count is insanely high after fighting off an active infeciton of Omicron, then I guess it doesn’t really confer immunity.

Based on everything we currently know, it would not surprise me if it was something like…

Omicron infection in an unvaccinated person provides like 1 month of Delta protection > 50% and 3-6 months of Omicron protection > 50%.

But Omicron infection in a vaxxed and boosted person might be 3-6 months across the board.

I have a feeling even the experts and scientists will be drawing a lot of educated guess based conclusions, because there are so many different vaccination combinations possible, and so many unidentified cases.

That’s what jman and I are discussing right now. It could provide much shorter term protection, which could knock Delta down to a very low level, which means even once that protection wanes, Delta is starting from lower levels and isn’t widely circulating.

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So in that case, we’d see a place that had an omicron wave, say like South Africa, and then start seeing delta cases crop up again when cases start dropping? That seems bad, so I’m going to just assume that won’t happen.

I umm… I am not seeing people take better precautions now then at other points during the pandemic. If anything people have given up.

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Yeah, not immediately, but soon thereafter. Of course the wild card is how much Delta has already circulated there and how many people are vaccinated. That will dictate how much protection the population has against Delta.

This is basically society’s approach to the pandemic at this point.

Man, if that’s a thing you see happening, it must be nice where you live. Maybe 10% of the population here in my neck of the woods in USA#1 is being substantially more careful than say 3 months ago. I’d say 30-40% is being substantially LESS careful.

I didn’t know of people actively trying to catch COVID until a few weeks ago. I didn’t hear a bunch of stories about people sending their kids to school pozzed until a few weeks ago.