Denmark would seem to be a less positive example among the early 'cron countries, as it’s basically plateaued at 20,000 cases/day (which is something like 1 million/day in the US, adjusted for population).
Many countries seem to be topping out at a similar rate, which is something like 2,000 to 3,000 cases/million/day.
I saw someone saying on Twitter that US hospitalizations were down, but I don’t have a better source right now. So maybe downgrade that to interesting anomaly if true.
Oddly enough, Czech Republic’s cases are surging upwards but its hospitalizations are simultaneously decreasing. Over the last two weeks, the number of people in the hospital with covid has decreased by half despite the number of cases nearly doubling during the same time frame.
Theoretically, that number of cases should shoot through the roof since the government is finally mandating that all businesses test their employers twice a week regardless of vaccination status/previous infection (public schools reduced to testing once a week though). Just the sheer number of antigen tests should lead to more PCR tests to confirm COVID which will throw the numbers well out of whack compared to the past.
Per 1.3 acres, hospitalizations down a couple thousand. But I notice the numbers jump around a bit as the day goes along (I think they are assumed to be the same as the day before until they are updated, so it could just be some states like NY revising their numbers down waiting for other states to come in).
I’m guessing this is a single day, and there are significant weekend effects on hospitalizations.
Yeah, day to day numbers are useless. Everything i’ve been posting have been seven day averages, not day to day drops. Lots of people get released from the hospital ahead of a weekend, and the data entry people for new admissions don’t come in until Monday (and it is a three day weekend right now) so I agree that a day to day comparison of US hospitalizations from like a friday to a Saturday or a saturday to a Sunday is worth jack shit. Contrary to what was posted elsewhere in this thread, looking at day to day hospitalization numbers to try to glean a trend is not particularly useful.
People also don’t come into the hospital until Monday when they have to go to work or get checked in on by their home nurse who is gone for the weekend.
UK hospitals actually test and report cases (both ‘with’ and ‘for’) unlike some other countries and unlike the UK population currently.
Ldo hospitalisations lag cases (if cases were still being 100% reported by the general population, which they aren’t) but only by a week or less…assuming the hospital doesn’t let you know you have covid first.
If it’s not obvious to you, I don’t doubt cases are falling but, to date, hospitalisations, both for and with, appear to be plateauing at best, leading the experts to believe cases aren’t falling off a cliff.
Like we always knew it was going to be a quick peak relative to delta, that’s been reported for 4 weeks now, we just don’t know where it finishes, in terms of hospitalisations.
exactly and less pessimistic if no-one PCR’ing (i.e. test reporting falling off the cliff)
Chest beating here I’m sure but the UK don’t turn off the computers at the weekend
Dont hospitalizations lag by about a week?
Maybe but this is a two week window
We have the blueprint for helping to avoid these disruption, essentially just dump all the burden on the healthcare system where it can be kind of hidden more easily.
Guardian live
A fourth shot of Covid vaccine raises antibodies to even higher levels than the third jab but it is not enough to prevent Omicron infections, according to a preliminary study in Israel.
Israel’s Sheba Medical Center has given second booster shots in a trial among its staff and is studying the effect of the Pfizer booster in 154 people after two weeks and the Moderna booster in 120 people after one week, said Gili Regev-Yochay , head of the Infectious Diseases Unit.
These were compared to a control group that did not receive the fourth shot. Those in the Moderna group had previously received three shots of Pfizer’s vaccine, the hospital said.
The vaccines led to a increase in the number of antibodies “even a little bit higher than what we had after the third dose”, said Regev-Yochay.
“Yet, this is probably not enough for the Omicron,” she told reporters. “We know by now that the level of antibodies needed to protect and not to got infected from Omicron is probably too high for the vaccine, even if it’s a good vaccine.”
The findings, which the hospital said were the first of its kind in the world, were preliminary and not yet published.
Israel was the fastest country to roll out initial vaccinations against Covid a year ago and last month started offering a fourth shot, or a second booster, to the most vulnerable and high-risk groups.
Took my at home test and came up negative. I assume this means I shouldn’t bother with any more testing in the absence of symptoms.
Here is the source, make of it what you will:
https://twitter.com/erictopol/status/1482883487875022848?s=21
This was just another booster not a tailored Omicron booster I assume?
Correct, Moderna should have those results in March…
Moderna CEO says data for Omicron-specific jab likely available in March
Moderna Inc’s vaccine candidate specifically for the Omicron variant will enter clinical development in the next few weeks and the company expects to be able to share data with regulators around March, CEO St é phane Bancel said on Monday.
“The vaccine is being finished … it should be in the clinic in coming weeks. We are hoping in the March timeframe to be able to have data to share with regulators to figure out next steps,” Bancel said at the World Economic Forum ’s virtual Davos Agenda conference.
The company is also developing a single vaccine that combines a booster dose against Covid-19 with its experimental flu shot.
Bancel said the best case scenario was the combined Covid/flu vaccine would be available by the fall of 2023, at least in some countries.
Our goal is to be able to have a single annual booster so that we don’t have compliance issues where people don’t want to get two to three shots a winter.
Many countries are already offering a third dose of a Covid jab to their citizens, especially to older individuals and those who are immunocompromised, while Israel and Chile have started offering their citizens a fourth dose.
Earlier in January, Moderna’s CEO said people may need a fourth shot in the autumn of 2022 as the efficacy of boosters against Covid was likely to decline over the next few months.
However, booster programmes have met with skepticism from some disease experts over whether, and how widely, additional doses should become available, including the European Union ’s drug regulator, which has expressed doubts about the need for a fourth booster dose.
Speaking at the same event, top US infectious disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci said there was no evidence that repeat booster doses would overwhelm the immune system.
Giving boosters at different times, there is really no evidence that’s going to hinder [immune response].
Fauci said the goal should be to have a booster that induces a response against multiple potential variants.
And a dual purpose Covid / Flu jab in 18+ months… maybe
Seems like a COVID booster designed to give immunity across variants, like Fauci says, would be best. I feel like Delta will be with us for quite some time in considerable numbers, especially in USA#1.
That dual purpose Moderna shot is actually likely to end up as far more than dual purpose. They know they can put at least 12 different formulations into one shot, they believe they can do 20+.
Their plan is to do an annual respiratory shot for covid, flu, rsv. But that’s multivalent for both covid and flu. So they may have 6-8 strains of flu, og/delta/omicron/??? for covid, etc.
They are hoping that they will be able to provide more efficacious flu shots by achieving better matching simply by having more variety in the shot than the current generation of vaccines against the flu, which have to pick just four strains (typically two influenza A strains and two influenza B strains).
They could also conceivably add other stuff to it as needed.
I was always a bit perplexed by vaxxed/boosted people being so worried about Delta. Efficacy against it with a booster was very good, if I recall correctly.
But yeah, if I were in charge, the question I’d be asking the experts is, “Should we be doing Delta+Omicron both in the booster? Perhaps trying to get a step ahead by also doing Mu or something similar in a different lineage to Delta/Omicron?”