Pretty sure this is either imminent or already happened. Interesting how this poll turned out almost perfectly symmetrical.
The official number right now is 20 cases/100 people and includes people getting Covid more than once.
UK cases continue to fall off a cliff, 7dma down 35 percent in 11 days:
Same for NY, 7dma down 15 percent in 5 days:
Even Florida looks like itās peaked now, with the 7dma down 6 percent in the last couple of days:
US as a a whole looks to be leveled off and days away at most from the nationwide peak.
South Africa is still falling off a cliff and 7dma is now down 78 percent from 28 days ago:
Would love to see these converted into deaths per million unvaxxed.
Would be on the order of 10 for LOLUSA#1 which is a rate of 0.1% every 100 days.
And thatās basically the fall baseline wo a surge of any kind.
Hospitalizations are trending down in New York, with only a few days lag after cases peaked. Seems like a good sign.
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This is all great news. I think it remains to be seen whether new waves can be avoided (absent a new variant), or if not, whether they will be more or less severe. Intuitively, it seems that the drop-off is driven by better mask compliance and masks, as well as general behavior of avoiding exposure. So that would suggest another wave as soon as we collectively let our guard down, maybe spring break or Easter.
Although, looking at that U.S. 2021 graph, holy shit. I guess we flattened the curve, alright. Iām guessing weāll see an even higher baseline from the second Omicron wave onward.
I donāt htink so. I think the drop off is mainly driven by math and very little by human behavior. The virus is just running out of hosts and canāt spread as efficiently.
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[quote=āLodenPants, post:1279, topic:7131, full:trueā]
This is all great news. I think it remains to be seen whether new waves can be avoided (absent a new variant), or if not, whether they will be more or less severe. Intuitively, it seems that the drop-off is driven by better mask compliance and masks, as well as general behavior of avoiding exposure. [/quote]
I also imagine that short-term, post-infection immunity could help to slow the growth in hard hit areas.
They got test positivity rate on that UK data? I want to believe, but counted positive cases arenāt the whole story.
If this is the case, then the next wave, if there even is one, should be much lower. But someone said recently ITT that only 20% of the U.S. has been infected. Maybe thatās confirmed cases only? I want to believe that it will be over soon, but Iām still hunkering down.
Not in the NYtimes data, no. But I imagine that positivity rates are falling as well, thatās a dramatic decline.
I mean, you should definitely still be hunkering down, but 20 percent of the US population having immunity through infection or vaccination + boosting seems incredibly low. Even through infection alone it seems incredibly low at this point.
Well, it could be that the next wave is lower. It could also be that the wave is similarly high but death and hospitalization is more decoupled.
The 20% figure is the official confirmed cases number. Weāve gotta be at 3x that, I would think. The ascertainment bias in 2020 was probably between 5 and 10 a lot of the time. I doubt it ever got below 2, and in this last wave Iām sure it was up around 5 for stretches of time again and probably averaged at least 3 or 4.
So, pretty good bet weāre at least at 50-60% of the country having been infected at one point or another.
Weāre probably somewhere around 80-90% having at least 2+ shots or prior infection.
Dropping a little (~2%?) but so is testing
Weird that the US no. of tests didnāt seem to increase with advent of Omicron. Stunning US positive test rate.
Looks like the UK gov data doesnāt make a neat and tidy positivity plot, but they have total testing. The amount of testing the last few days might be down a bit from the peak but looks like by less than cases have fallen. Thatās pretty good news.
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=overview&areaName=United%20Kingdom
ETA: Thanks, churchill, for finding a positivity plot. Thatās definitely encouraging.
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Lots of people here probably just used a lot of at-home rapid tests that donāt get counted. I tested like 7-9 times between Thanksgiving and New Yearās, and only one was a PCR and thus made it into the figures.
That also probably drove the positivity rate up. A lot of people may have only scheduled a PCR after a positive at-home rapid antigen test.
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Our vaccination status is quite a bit worse than the UK, too.
My son got a negative result on an antigen test today, 8 days after his first positive. We havenāt been testing him everyday, but we know he was still positive on Wednesday. Thankfully he had a very minor case. Weāre letting him out of isolation (at least within our apartment), and heāll be going back to school on Tuesday.
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