Too soon to say for sure, but looks like new cases in New York may be plateauing.
The yellow bars below are the number of daily new cases, and the height of the entire bar is the number of tests. The gold line is the 7-day moving average of cases per 100k.
Even though there was an uptick in new cases yesterday, the positivity rate has been pretty steady since Dec. 29, which suggests the leveling off of the case count isn’t driven by testing capacity constraints. Also keep in mind that tests can take several days to process, so this chart tracks actual case growth with a lag.
We had a similar thing in the UK - float the idea that you’ll need a covid passport to get into nightclubs and the yoots got out of bed to get their shots.
New York is probably only days behind the UK, so a cases peak would make sense here too soon. It’s probably too early for hospitalizations to actually be declining though and that may be a funky artifact of how patients are discharged right before the weekend or something?
hmmm what makes me skeptical is how hospitalizations would peak before cases. That doesn’t make sense.
Wait it’s a day to day measure, that’s why. Busiest days in hospitals are Mondays. That’s when more people, sick and not sick, check in. Weekends are much slower. Would say not evidence of a peak at this point.
I mean “endemic” is not a very well defined word. Like in theory it means that the level of disease is constant, but influenza is considered endemic and the level of that is not constant at all. It’s seasonal and goes through surges and retreats.
The US probably has millions of cases a day right now. A decent chunk of the population will have had it once this wave is over. I would not expect another surge of this magnitude until next winter, probably. Whether that technically qualifies as “endemic”, meh. I’m talking about a situation where people can live without restrictions for an extended time and the disease burden is relatively low.
