This is awesome!
Looks like we have another new variant, BA.2.75. Super wide confidence interval but the first estimate is 998% more transmissible than BA.5. 95%CI range is 196% to 1800%. Itās on the rapid ascent in India, and has been detected in the US in Washington and California.
https://twitter.com/PeskyTCells/status/1543150440791031808
Meanwhile, on the Long COVID front, this was published in Nature:
https://twitter.com/quervain_de/status/1542898152805728260
Meanwhile, on the T-cell front, itās extremely anecdotal but hereās a doctor with multiple infections and low t-cells:
wtf
10 fold
Not sure how much I trust a guy reporting 3 significant figures when his CI is that massive.
Yeah Iām pretty bearish in where COVID is going. We trough at much higher case levels now and the waves come faster, especially when we account for how much less we are testing/reporting now. I think it is only a matter of time before we get a variant that cracks existing vaccines. But even Iām gonna take the under on 998 percent more transmissible.
I mean weāve already had pretty big jumps in transmissibility, havenāt we? Omicron was like 420% more transmissible than Delta, BA.2 was like 30-60% more than Omicron, BA.5 is like 35% more than BA.2. Delta was like 50% more transmissible than Alpha, which was like 50% more transmissible than the original strain.
I mean, Iād take the under 998% before Iād take the over, but I donāt think itās like incomprehensible if it ends up being in that range of around 10-fold worse.
Having a hard time figuring out the transmission mechanism that would make it 10x more transmissible than omicron. I guess if we start hearing stories about entire 70,000 person outdoor stadiums catching COVID or something.
R0 is a log scale. It doesnāt take that much
Edit: exponential, Iām tired. Point is that you get big numbers really fast depending on how you define things
Yeah, this is where Iām at.
Iām at a point where I donāt care about transmissibility per se. All I care about is bad outcomes (hospitalization/death). Iām still largely in denial about long COVID, but the needle is moving a bit on that.
you were right the first time
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Fucking hell
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https://twitter.com/DrKerrySmith/status/1542770297409048579
I donāt suppose we have her T-cell counts prior to all these infections. Maybe she was always a bit low and that is why she got COVID 5 times?
As you suggest itās a single person, so itās hard to draw strong general conclusions of any kind.
About fucking time.
Iām not sure what the point of this is at all. Acute illnesses very frequently cause decreased lymphocytes
Well Dr. Kerry Smith is apparently very concerned!
Yeah, I mean, if this new variant is indeed 10x more contagious than omicron, then it has to be flirting with being the most contagious disease in recorded history. That isnāt impossible, sure, but sheesh. I would at least hope itās unlikely.
Agreed, but there are other explanations for the craziness than the one I assume she is implying (havenāt read any more than the cuseās post).
I thought @MrWookie did, but maybe one of them wasnāt confirmed with a test. So itās reasonable to just count that as 1.