COVID-19: Chapter 10 - Mission Achomlished!

Never said this, and I never was wrong about germ theory.

Words. So many words. What a waste.

Trying to improve the signal-to-noise ratio, so I thought Iā€™d re-quote the reason people keep opening this thread to read replies.

Seemed folks were pretty pessimistic 1-2 weeks ago about an imminent surge, havenā€™t been following closely, how we looking?

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ā€œTaking all this together, we expect SARS-CoV-2 will continue to cause new epidemics, but they will increasingly be driven by the ability to skirt around the immune system. In this sense, the future may look something like the seasonal flu, where new variants cause waves of cases each year. If this happens, which we expect it will, vaccines may need to be updated regularly similar to the flu vaccines unless we develop broader variant-proof vaccines.ā€

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1508246156521922560?s=21&t=uWQMFqEm6mnp6ajugxOO2Q

Turns out that there was an outbreak of something at the school prom the week I got sick. I wasnā€™t there but most of the classes I teach have prom attendees in them. So I was in contact with a whole lot of them. First week with no masks in the school too.

There was definitely some covid there since a few students got it but a lot more ended up with something that wasnā€™t. They had symptoms similar to me and like me also tested negative for covid.

Maybe it should become the flu awareness dance in the future.

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They have proms in Czechia?

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https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status/1508501898281816070?s=21&t=cvjFTCWrDyxNJhLZoS9h5Q

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Man, data can be beautiful sometimes

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Itā€™s not exactly that. Kinda hard to explain but a prom is the closest thing to it in America that I can think of.

They came into their riches by participating in what experts say is the theft of as much as $80 billion ā€” or about 10 percent ā€” of the $800 billion handed out in a Covid relief plan known as the Paycheck Protection Program, or PPP. Thatā€™s on top of the $90 billion to $400 billion believed to have been stolen from the $900 billion Covid unemployment relief program ā€” at least half taken by international fraudsters ā€” as NBC News reported last year.

ā€œThe government spent approximately $800 billion and provided 21 million loans to individuals,ā€ said Haywood Talcove, the CEO of Lexis Nexis, which works with the government to verify identities.

No one is sure exactly how much was stolen. An academic paper released last year estimated at least $76 billion in potential fraud, and the authors said that was conservative.

The SBAā€™s inspector general has identified $78.1 billion in potentially fraudulent Economic Injury Disaster Loans, another Covid relief program for businesses. The Secret Service has its own estimate: $100 billion.

The basic scheme, Talcove said, was ā€œreally simple.ā€ People went on state websites and took the names of existing businesses or registered new, fake ones.

ā€œThereā€™s absolutely no security on there. Thereā€™s no validation of any information,ā€ Talcove said. ā€œAnd voila, you have company ABC with 40 employees and a payroll of $10 million. And you go and apply for a PPP loan. It was a piece of cake.ā€

  1. apply for PPP
  2. put it on BTC/ETH/GME
  3. ???
  4. Profit

I filled everything out properly but was denied. They couldnā€™t verify my tax returns because the IRS hadnā€™t gotten around to doing them yet. Super tilts me seeing this.

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Guess itā€™s time.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1509191830272847876

https://twitter.com/dmaccannell/status/1508844415590100999

Well, Iā€™m still puzzled why we havenā€™t seen much of a BA.2 wave here yet despite the fact that BA.2 is here in abundance and has been for a while now. Itā€™s certainly not because of better mitigation or better vaccination. It doesnā€™t appear to be because our main omicron wave was that much worse than that of Europe (if it were then a plausible explanation was that we got hammered in one wave while Europe may have delayed a chunk of their cases with mitigation strategies until BA.2 took over). Our delta wave was quite a bit worse than Europe on average, but not the UK, which is getting a secondary BA.2 wave. So, I dunno. Seems like the other shoe should have dropped by now if it were going to drop, but thatā€™s also not to say it wonā€™t.

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Could differences in vaccines (Pfizer and Moderna vs. others) be a contributing factor?

Seems unlikely the difference in vaccines would be extreme enough to produce what weā€™re seeing. Most likely explanation is the US just got hit hard early by Omicron.

england getting smacked by ba.2, still not seeing the big jump here yet.

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