It’s Forecasting Friday.
Question #1: What the 7DMA of new cases be on July 1, 2022?
0 voters
What with the 7DMA of deaths be on July 1, 2022?
0 voters
Will a variant besides Delta or Omicron account for >50% of the new cases on July 1, 2022?
0 voters
Click the link for the pdf on the same page? You can zoom pdf’s. See page 21.
Here, I’ll link that for you too, just so you can find another few holes to pick (try suprising me and just read it without commenting adversely for a change)
And woof the paper is even more of a mess. They’re claiming a significant change in TLCO, and 4 of their NHLC patients have ‘N/A’ in the table under TLCO. You can’t do that. This is either extremely poorly written (possible, given the clear unfinished status of this paper) or is a farce.
BBC should not be reporting on this study.
I voted no on the last one, assuming BA.2 counts as Omicron. If not I’d vote yes.
ME/CFS is very likely not a real disease, and it absolutely doesn’t apply to the legion of self diagnosed people found online.
Voted 25k-75k, 100-500, no
but I think it might be actually below 25k but if so then only barely. If given the option I would have picked 20k-30k
Question 3 pretty much has to be true based on what we’ve experienced so far right? Or am I completely off base?
Off base. Probably true if date was September - December IMO
based on…?
There is no actual consensus about how to even define CFS/ME, and the evidence for its existence is absurdly weak, so I have no idea what you’re talking about here. The best treatment evidence, even not good, was for cognitive behavioral therapy.
It’s a well worn pattern of diseases with chronic vague symptoms and no real clinical critieria that have come and gone in popularity. Fibromyalgia, chronic Lyme, POTS, and more fall into this category.
Now could there be some specific entity that actually causes some sort of inflammation of the nervous system that then causes these symptoms? Sure. However, the legion of people who suddenly had this specific disease as it became more popular in the 00s/10a don’t all have CFS/ME.
Maybe I should have been more specific (“Greek-letter variant”) on the last one. Something not under the umbrella of Omicron/Delta (or stealth, +, etc) as determined by the WHO.
How is it recognized when there’s no consensus definition? The fact is that it’s completely meaningless if you recognized it as a medical condition if there aren’t actual consensus criteria to define it. I can’t think of any other disease that can’t be defined, medically or psychologically, which is a meaningless distinction anyways. It’s all biology regardless.
And again, it’s perfectly possible that it does exist as a medical condition. However, that doesn’t change how it became a fad diagnosis in the 00s, and one that I was personally harmed by due to a lazy doctor saying I had CFS when it turned out I had decreased heart function due to myocarditis.
Another close friend of mine believed he had cfs during medical school based on what he read online. He’s doing a lot better after hospitalization for a manic episode, his bipolar disorder is well controlled now and he’s doing much better.
I have an old friend who’s been having regular shots of something for ME for 15-20 years, which help him greatly. He’s always thrilled when people tell him it’s all in his mind.
Are you sure you’re not letting your own highly regrettable experience of a misdiagnosis cloud your judgement?
Yes.
Also your friend is very likely being hoodwinked with something stupid like magnesium shots. There’s no such treatment with evidence behind it.
There’s massive overlap between the people who specialize in “treating” CFS and naturalist nut jobs that deny Covid, although it certainly isn’t all
I personally suffered from a psychosomatic illness for a couple months that was cured because a neurologist assigned a diagnosis even though he didn’t do any treatment.
Adding on:
https://twitter.com/AlanaKinrich/status/1489695263904071682?s=20&t=175pwS86Eks_Z0LCEO2qvg
Wait you are denying MECFS is a thing? Or that there are treatments for it?
Edit: read up. Yeah will tell my bed-ridden cousin she’s just nuts rather than ill. Cool.
…
‘Evidence for its existence is absurdly weak’