Sure, but I don’t think it will be like a clean slate every six months, certainly not it we’re talking about reduction of hospitalizations/deaths.
Depends on how much a mild infection protects unvaxxed from future bad outcomes and for how long and how vaccines hold up over time (more bullish on the latter). Jha pointed out this week unvaxxed already not a naive population was like 60-70 percent infected and cases still spiked. Otherwise, not a clean slate, but lots of tinder available to burn through. Healthcare system also less and less capable of dealing with future waves, so takes a weaker wave to cause issues.
Idk, we just got to record hospitalization levels with a “mild” variant like five months after the first delta wave (and delta was already resurgent before that) so I’m kinda expecting waves of death at some interval until proven otherwise.
Mild exposures are going to produce weak responses, that’s certainly true.
But deaths per case is way down. And how much of this new wave is due to unvaccinated people with no prior exposure? You do run out of fresh tinder eventually, esp when it spreads as fast as Omicron.
Well that’s that key question and still tbd right? We don’t have good data yet on severity for reinfection vs. first infection for this wave AFAIK. That’s the point I was trying to clarify with my edit and the 60-70 percent unvaxxed pop not naive pre Omicron stat.
If like 95 percent plus or w/e of the serious cases are first infections that’s (relatively) good news but I saw mixed news pre delta and still tbd for Omicron.
Otherwise still likely get another wave but will at least get closer to the famed “caseademic” next go round (excluding long term issues for this part of the discussion).
Generally speaking, the anti vax crowd doesn’t believe either one is approved because the makers renamed it.
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I continue to be frustrated that we aren’t testing to see how other coronaviruses circulate. Maybe we actually have asymptomatic waves of the common cold during the summer and we don’t even realize it - maybe higher levels of vitamin D protect against symptoms, along with lingering immunity from winter exposure. Then maybe that wanes in the winter and that’s the reason for cold and flu season.
I feel like knowing this would go a long way towards helping us decide on an end-game here. I guess the jokes on me cause the end-game is the ownership class forcing everyone back to work and not giving a flying fuck what that means for life expectancy, long covid, future issues, etc.
Right but I’m not talking about vaccines, so much as naturally acquired immunity. I’m also just talking about pure case counts, not hospitalizations or deaths.
If we’re talking about the likelihood of waves every 3-6 months, we’re really looking at the unvaccinated pool of the population as being the part that’s going to allow that in all likelihood.
Given that the deaths are damn near optional in USA#1 now, I feel for the kids who aren’t vaxxed and the immunocompromised and the portions of the world without the infrastructure to get enough shots in arms… But as for here at home, my main concerns remain Long COVID, drug supply during waves, and hospital overruns.
So each wave is a threat in those regards, even if it’s not causing as much death.
FTFY.
Gotta say I find the FDA’s stance on under 5’s a bit worrying / desperate, like given the studies aren’t even concluded yet - combined with the super low rates of bad outcomes for this age group - another US first I guess. Almost like we gotta take some risks as the anti-vaxx adults aren’t making up the numbers…
Here’s a bit more on Bloomberg’ s report on Pfizer and BioNTech submitting data to regulators in the US for authorisation of vaccines for children under five.
Citing unnamed people familiar with the data, the report said: “The rolling submission of data asks regulators to clear the shot as a two-dose vaccine, though it’s expected that ultimately a three-shot regimen may become standard.”
The Pfizer vaccine is already approved for emergency use in children in the United States aged five and older. It has full approval for adults.
Representatives for Pfizer, as well as for the US Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Health and Human Services, could not immediately be reached for comment on the report.
In a statement late on Monday, Pfizer said it had not yet sought approval and was “continuing to collect and analyse data from both two and three doses in our younger age cohort.”
Strange, because there is no official stance from the FDA yet, it’s not in what you quote but don’t link, and you have never read it.
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I wouldnt anyways as an under 5 parent. Two doses are safe, so thats a non issue. We know vaccines are effective, seems highly likely just getting the right dose is the issue. There are potential long-term effects from the virus that vaccines may help blunt. This is likely a three shot vaccine min for anyone anyways, so, starting to get needles in arms now gets everyone protected sooner if/when this ends up being a three dose regimen.
But yeah, nothing has been approved yet, this is just a potential path forward.
Seems like the FDA is URGING (begging?) Pfizer? I could understand why they don’t wanna go ‘official’ with that
The Post report says that the FDA urged the companies to submit the application so that regulators could begin reviewing the two-shot data. “The idea is, let’s go ahead and start the review of two doses,” the report quoted one of the people familiar with the situation as saying. “If the data holds up in the submission, you could start kids on their primary baseline months earlier than if you don’t do anything until the third-dose data comes in.”
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‘Only in America’
I guess as just 30% of 5-12yrs have taken the option (anti-vaxxers!) it’s time to do 15% of the under 5’s
I dont really get this one. Shot in kids arms faster in the somewhat likely case three doses offers protection seems good. A potential rare example of a good pandemic response by America.
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What do you think the scandal is here?
In my town kids under 11 are like 95%+ vaxxed, so, would like for us to have the option to make our kids and community even safer as fast as possible.
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That most countries can count the deaths of under 5’s on one hand and, you know, there are other countries requiring vaccinations for adults - something, something, incubators
This is dumb and irrelevant. 6mo - 5 years getting vaccinated will not take away from other age groups at all.
Are you cribbing this all from Vinay Prasad?