COVID-19: Chapter 10 - Mission Achomlished!

I’ve had it once which is how I know >2000 U/ml is a decent level

Olds (my MIL and FIL for example, fortnightly, at their residence) and HCW’s have had it on the regular.

Well churchill color me skeptical as you still aren’t addressing the neutralization testing or constant testing that this would require.

It’d be a really weird use of resources but kind of cool I guess

I thought you said it was bullshit and no one was doing it?

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World case numbers are mildly discouraging right now. The countries on the leading edge of Omicron (USA, UK, Canada, and Denmark) aren’t showing as dramatic of a nosedive as South Africa had.

Hopefully due to mitigation measures in these countries that weren’t present in SA (as the original Omicron country) and higher vax rates slowing the Omicron curve down.

Looks like cases are dropping pretty fast in the US. Deaths lagging behind but the chart looks like it passed an inflection point.

Huh? Here’s what’s going on in Canada. What am I missing?

USA:

The slope of the drop is almost the same as the slope of the increase.

Hookers and blow?

Seriously he should be fine and if he’s got a phone and internet and door dash he’s covered.

Door Dash is a no go. College is a bit out in the country.

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These guys are such dipshits.

South Africa peak 12/17: 23,437
South Africa Peak + 15 days 1/1: 8,592 (-63.4% peak)

USA#1 peak 1/15: 839,761
USA#1 peak + 15 days 1/30: 510,752 (-39.2% from peak)

UK peak 1/5: 183,895
UK peak + 15 days 1/20: 93,217 (-49.3% from peak, still stuck near this rate)

Canada peak 1/10: 29,492
Canada peak + 15 days 1/25: 13,734 (-53.4% from peak)

Denmark: hasn’t peaked

Not terribly discouraging, but mildly discouraging as I said. It seems most countries are probably going to follow this mixture of plateauing and decrease rather than a South Africa-style nosedive as we had hoped.

Canada is certainly the most South Africa-like at this point.

Denmark is over 80% BA.2 aka Stealth Omicron not BA.1 which SA, USA, UK and Canada are experiencing (still the dominant strain). It’s likely Denmark will continue vertically til they hit nearer 95% dominance.

The experts aren’t sure where the peak with BA.2 is, yet. We’d like to know because that what’s likely to be hitting us next.

US is very different then South Africa though in that it is much bigger and more diverse geographically and different areas of the US peaked at different times (some still haven’t peaked yet). To make the comparison you’re better off looking at state level data.
NY Peak 1/9, 7dma 74,182
NY Peak + 15 days 7dma 1/24: 23,495 (-68 percent from peak)

One major confounding factor for looking at the US as a whole is that the West Coast peaked way later than the Northeast did, and those are the two huge population centers in the US.

Edit: Fixing my math

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I would use US case numbers directionally. Trying to do peak to trough going to be tough because we way way undercounted peak. This surge still on the wane, which is good.

Denmark may not be a good comp because getting a BA.2 wave after a BA.1 wave may be different from getting a BA.2 wave after BA.1 has crested and waned. All depends on how much reinfection protection BA.1 provides against BA.2 and for how long which is still very much TBD. Denmark is certainly seeing some reinfections with BA.2 from people who had BA.1, but havent seen it quantified.

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Just back from weekly grocery run.

Bad news: only about 30-40% masked, probably about average for the past month, BUT

Good news: There were bins of free N95 masks “from the government” available. As a bonus they were being well-promoted by the self-checkout staff. As in calling out and offering them to people just walking by. Also heard, “Oh you can take more than that!”.

Some people seemed initially skeptical, like “what’s the catch?” but many were actually taking handfuls.

I doubt if this has any impact on the number of people who will wear a mask, but at least a lot of already-masked people will get an upgrade.

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Narrator: to resell them on ebay.

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I see the point and agree, but not to the extent of just being able to look at NYS’s numbers and say its the same. South Africa is big and geographically diverse too, with 1/6 the number of people spread across 1/3 the land of the lower 48 United States, and millions of people living in relative isolation of rural areas that get maybe a couple minibuses a day in and out. And the initial spread of Omicron there was heavily concentrated in Joburg.

Also, California for instance is 15 days out from its peak but hasn’t seen anything like a 68% drop.

Danish study suggests Omicron subvariant is more transmissible

The BA.2 subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant, which has quickly taken over in Denmark , is more transmissible than the more common BA.1 and more able to infect vaccinated people, a Danish study has found.

Reuters reports:

The study, which analysed coronavirus infections in more than 8,500 Danish households between December and January, found that people infected with the BA.2 subvariant were roughly 33% more likely to infect others, compared to those infected with BA.1.

Worldwide, the “original” BA.1 subvariant accounts for more than 98% of Omicron cases, but its close cousin BA.2 has quickly become the dominant strain in Denmark, dethroning BA.1 in the second week of January.

“We conclude that Omicron BA.2 is inherently substantially more transmissible than BA.1, and that it also possesses immune-evasive properties that further reduce the protective effect of vaccination against infection,” the study’s researchers said.

Atlanta masking game has been pretty good these days. About 90%+ in grocery stores, and probably a 50% rate of KN95+ masks. Varies tremendously by the part of the city, though.

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