What kind of ventilator uses a sprinkler head???
at least thatās how I read it the first time. 
Iāll take more than 60,400 confirmed deaths by 6/4
Lol at 8/4
Why do you think we are going to eradicate this and itāll just go away and have no other peaks? You think we will stay at home for the next 18-24 months waiting for a vaccine and not open back up? You think NYC being almost half of the US deaths when itās hitting a peak and the rest are just ramping up means the others will magically die and never ramp up?
80-100k are summer numbers, not final numbers
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That would be great; fingers crossed
Doubting itāll work well for something as severe as covid tho, but if it does itād be great.
This makes it sound like NYC is out of resources for all intents and purposes and just stretching them thin enough to pretend people arenāt being sent home to die.
People get sent home, they get 20 minutes of paramedics (or worse, EMTs) treating them, theyāre pronounced at home. People get to the hospital needing a vent and have to wait for someone on a vent to die so they can get one. Their family isnāt with them so we arenāt hearing about these things, but theyāre happening.
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That is rough. Plus the EMTs have to call time of death now, doctors are not brought online to announce time of death anymore.
I keep hearing all this stuff that we are getting past the worst but reality keeps pointing in a different direction.
I trusted the numbers going up, so going to have to have faith as they level off but still seems we are a long way off from good times in New York and a good portion of the country is much further behind the New York timeline.
Ok Iāve been doing some maths. Having fun with the new xlookup function in excel.
For all states/territories on covidtracking, I took the raw 7 day exponents (Ln(today/last week))/7. Not slopes. Should minimize the variation based on reporting days over weekends. Monday/Monday, etc.
I then projected 7 days forward. The net average for the whole US works out pretty close to my slopes average exponents. Currently about .14 (5day doubling total deaths)
7 days forward projects to about 45,000 total From 17,000 now. Weād need to see an average of about 4,000 per day. It is massively dominated by NY (50%), Then NJ (14%), MI (9%)
HOPEFULLY NY is leveling off at about 6,000 a week. The exponent is moving strongly in the good direction (expected when the rate goes flat). Too tired now to factor this in today.
Eventually I may Try to build this out more based on positive tests
Speaking of that I looked at NY only.
I took death rate (total deaths/total cases). I then did it at 1,2, ā¦ 20 day offsets. 7 would be total deaths today/total cases a week ago.
I then did the relative standard deviation Encompassing the last several days it looks like the RSD is lowest when the offset is 9 days.
It works out to 9.3% +/- 0.15%. (1.6% RSD)
That is shocking. This aināt the regular flu even if we are undercounting cases more than deaths.
If calc from todayās 160,000 NY cases we get 14880 total deaths on 4/18. If we are flat then we could expect to see 868/day on average from now until then. 779 and 799 the last two days. Seems like this will be a better predictor than the exponent once we see flattening.
I did a daily/daily calc for a 9 day offset and the average is about 9%. RSD is higher but expected for daily numbers with weekend biases etc.
9 days from positive test to death seems to make a lot of sense. There seems to be a few day lag between exposure and a positive test. I think I saw a factor of 14 days from exposure to death on average.
*standard possible biases in testing and counting deaths
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And then I read the NY paramedic deal and it just slams that the āfunā math excel Iām doing is death of people. Dying alone hooked up to a vent or dying at home just because thatās where NY is at. For the state, the top 10 causes add up to 315/day (2017). 2.5 fold that just from covid and that is likely really 4-5 fold.
Covid is the #1 killer in the country by daily rate.
Rachel said someone every 47 seconds today in the whole country.
Nah, I had it way back in November. I was with the guy who started it when I dared him to eat a raw bat. Didnāt think the crazy bastard would actually do it.
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She canāt come to your house
If the sister isnāt happy get a hotel room
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want to feel old? this was one month ago:
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Joe or surrogate (Warren or Porter would be perfect) needs to do a daily 15 minute talk with a 15-30 minute QA with a couple of real unleashed experts.
In one of them they could have a timer ding with a counter for every damn death during the press conference.
Let Joe MC. Give the progressive wing lots of love. States will carry it live when itās their reps turn.
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@RiskyFlush is your huckleberry
It says the total rate of infection (active and already recovered ) is 15%
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My Blue Heaven?
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But also the conversation happening.
Youāve got me there. Not sure I ever saw it. Please explain in your best Roger Ebert voice and I will be forever in yer debt