COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Looks like the bulk of their new cases are still coming from Lombardy, with a healthy dose from Rome, Piedmont, Tuscany and Veneto

I do not doubt that some people are dying at home from COVID-19, but do you guys really think tons of people are so stricken with respiratory failure that they just suffocate to death without calling 911 at the very end? Iā€™m not trying to argue that there arenā€™t people dying at home who arenā€™t being counted, Iā€™m just trying to imagine a scenario where the agony of impending death is upon me and I donā€™t seek medical careā€¦

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Yeah Iā€™m trying to make sense of it too but the stats do indicate a huge amount are doing exactly that

200 daily in the UK is our estimate but adjust that as you like (ymmv)

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In places where wearing a mask outside is mandatory did we figure out if you have to wear them in the car? Lol

Can always be paranoid like me and set the air-con to internal circulate only (stops internal / external air exchange, handy when in car lines)

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I meant legally lol

Five-star stays for frontline hospital workers

For some of New Yorkā€™s healthcare workers - serving on the frontlines of the US coronavirus outbreak - home is now a $1,000-a-night room at the Four Seasons Hotel in New York City.

The Manhattan hotel was converted from an extravagant retreat for the wealthy to a place of refuge for New Yorkā€™s nurses, doctors and other medical professionals in a matter of days.

There is no bar or restaurant anymore, but packed lunches are available upon request.

ā€œMany of those working in New York City have to travel long distances to and from their homes after putting in 18-hour days,ā€ said Ty Warner, owner of the Four Seasons, in a statement. ā€œThey need a place close to work where they can rest and regenerate.ā€

While other hotels have given up rooms to help backstop overcrowded hospitals, the Four Seasons has emptied entirely of guests - except for medical workers.

The quick conversion followed a call to action from New York Governor Andrew Cuomo as the state faced a shortage of housing for healthcare workers who could not safely return to their families.

With at least 140,386 infections statewide, New York is the centre of the US crisis. New York City remains the hardest hit, with more than 76,000 infections and 4,000 deaths so far.

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Is there really any reason to believe that we have the capacity to test on the scale needed? From what I can tell, Paul Romerā€™s universal testing and quarantine strategy is the only approach that seems at all likely to get us to a better place, but it probably requires something like 10,000x times as much testing capacity as we currently have, and our test throughput is actually completely flat:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html

There is a long period where FDA/CDC stepped on testing, then a brief ramp-up after they stopped, then essentially a steady state. Drivethrough testing honestly doesnā€™t make any sense if you have a bottleneck of lab capacity and a surplus of samples being collected at hospitals.

I think the idea is to decrease testing so that leaders can point to the graphs and proclaim itā€™s safe to open back up. And then stonksā†’āˆž

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ā€œHomeā€ for many is a nursing home where theyā€™re already in very bad health and the exact cause of death isnā€™t looked into all that closely when they go.

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Death toll still chugging along as the infection rate slows down. Seems hard for this disparity to last for too long.

Untitled

Untitled12221

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In some cases they probably donā€™t have the energy to get to a phone and make the call.

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Sorry when I said business I meant those who want to control testing and donā€™t want to allow other participants or avenues that donā€™t lead to them. I am thinking about your former employer and their duopoly partner for two. But I am really not sure where these drive through facilities were or how they were processing.

I know if we had the four minute phone booth tests that SK had three weeks ago it would hurt the big labs abilities to profit off corona directly.

I feel like we could just emulate S. Korea and Germany and be ok.

https://twitter.com/neilmwebb/status/1245012958415073282

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Do me a favor and hold the blue line steady for future graphs instead of allowing it to trend with new results.

These guys claim to be able to process 1M tests a day.

The CEO was answering questions on HackerNews:

Thatā€™s what you think.

This is what weā€™re going to do.

Sure, if this had happened in 2015 instead of 2020. But as a nation we came together to reject science, facts, and competent leadership in the name of racism, buffoonery and chest-thumping. Now weā€™re going to get what we deserve and then some.

Thanks, awval.

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Why wouldnā€™t you assume death toll lags new cases by say 1-3 weeks?