If the R0 is that high then I dunno wtf and am retiring from Dartboard Virology with what I consider a very respectable track record. Everything I can think of carries implications that don’t seem borne out in reality.
In places like NY, Spain, UK it basically is already Italy level bad except for those places had 7-10 days to gear up for the fight that Italy did not have. As for the rest of the world it just hasn’t gotten here yet and the social distancing/lockdowns are working to some extent. NY has a lower population and more new cases and deaths than Italy had at the peak.
It also means if you try and open up the country too soon you are looking at this coming back full force maybe worse.
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Shit, need a lot higher % for herd immunity if the r0 is that high
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Yeah that’s fine
But the mortality rate right now is like 3%+
If undercounting means it’s more like 1%, that’s still a ton of people dead
Nah, that’s a garbage take too. The South Korean government is doing amazing work combating this. The CDC and other agencies were really quick to isolate and sequence this thing.
The ideological libertarian solution is to have a slumlord businessbro become president and slash our government’s disease response teams. Well we did that and it sure didn’t fucking work but the libertarians are somehow still insisting that we need to slash the evil government and then the billionaires will swoop in and save us. Maybe put Elon in charge of NIH, he’ll know what to do, surely.
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The swab tests don’t look for antibodies.
The implication of this (if it’s correct) is that more people than we thought are getting this and not getting ill.
Right, but the genetic analysis that Vance refers to is predicated in part on the idea that you can figure out when the virus was introduced, then work forward based on how fast it spreads to see how many people could be infected. If it spreads much faster than thought, more people should have it, but they seem not to.
Sigh. We’ve been through this. The apparent mortality rate has been done on deaths now over cases now. Only when we get to the end will we know the truly mortality rate. Other countries with curves similar to the US would say on the higher end of the range. Yes there are at least three big factors
-undercounting cases- works to lower % mortality
-lag in deaths compared to cases- works to increase % mortality
-undercounting of deaths - also increases % mortality
Literally the difference is some over a shit ton of deaths up to and maybe over a fuck ton.
Just use a round 1% for now and should get in the standard -50% to + 100% range on most SWAGs.
And remember those numbers were living breathing human beings until this thing came along and there are a shit ton more of them dead than there should have been (see Bay Area counties vs New York or what’s coming in Florida.
Keeeeeed— I am uncertain if you are just making an observation or you are trying to minimize for some political point. Sadly you don’t get the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. If I’m wrong, my apologies but the best predictor of present and future behavior is past behavior.
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The point to me is that prevalence = hospitalization and death. If your hospitals haven’t been hit hard, then it hasn’t spread in your area yet. There is no stealth spread in an area. No secret herd immunity building up in areas that haven’t been hit.
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It definitely does not come down to only those two things.
The West Wing Liberal bro take is to always give the government more power. How’s that work out when Donald Trump gets to be President? Or Ronald Reagan? Or George Bush?
There is no group more magical thinking Utopian than the West Wing Liberals.
Billionaires as a class are bad because of the types of people who do what it takes to get rich and what being rich does to people. It’s just as bad for government. Generally those in power will have had to be terrible people in debt to other terrible people and then there’s pressure on them to lie and to protect the status quo once they get into power. Sure, there are exceptions, but the systemic pressures mean the average with be shitty.
lol, we elected all of those guys because they were supposed to be government outsiders. Try again.
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Exponents suck when it comes to forecasting. Small difference in estimating the exponent or changes in our behavior changing the exponent run into huge differences played over 30 days. People start dying and hospitals see admission spikes and government rules and/or fear.
The main thrust is that the Ro for baseline human interaction levels may be much higher than thought.
If we did nothing we would probably be approaching 10s of % infected and herd immunity on the horizon. With million plus dead or dying in the US.
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One thing for sure about death rate is it massively spikes if everyone can’t get an ICU bed and ventilator.
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The CDC shipped a defective test that cost us two weeks! Madness. No one was allowed to use working tests! It’s a false dichotomy perpetuated by the grifting class that the only things you can believe are 1) the government is awful, we must take away all of its funding, and 2) the government is awesome and we must give it more money. The reality is that the government is underfunded (at least in some areas) but also wastes a lot of the funding it does have or uses it in ways that are actively destructive.
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New statistics show that 354 people are suspected to have died with coronavirus in Scotland since the outbreak began last month.
Health Protection Scotland (HPS) statistics published on the Scottish Government website on Tuesday show 296 recorded deaths.
But the Scottish Government announced last week they would also publish details from the National Records of Scotland, which would look at deaths registered where Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificate, and can include possible or expected cases of the virus.
The new figure covers a period from March 16 to April 5.
Despite the changes, HPS will continue to publish daily figures on the number of deaths, tests and positive cases.
That’s a terrible point. They got elected in the past, the present and will in the future regardless and the West Wing Liberal will make them more powerful. And, the West Wing Liberals will fawn all over the Bill Clintons who certainly don’t move things far in the other direction - because the magical thinking West Wing Liberals are a bunch of suckers.
See:
public expenditures captured by the influence that wealth commands to further maximise the wealth of that tiny fraction
I don’t think arms manufacturers are owned by a bunch of poor people FYI.
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Cuomo press conference update:
recent daily deaths
April 2: 562
April 3: 630
April 4: 594
April 5: 599
April 6: 731
April 7: 779
daily new hospitalizations down
Consider these possibilities:
- Liberals in charge of a strong government
- Liberals in charge of a weak government
- Conservatives in charge of a strong government
- Conservatives in charge of a weak government
Only one of these is actually good. Give government enough power to be useful and hope that liberals are in charge often enough for it to be positive.