COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

[WichitaDM]

One thing that seems odd and very wrong about that model at the moment is that it predicts zero deaths just about everywhere by May 1 or June 1 depending on location. That seems virtually impossible at this point.

[mosdef]

Appears to be some weird variation on the idea of discrediting efficient market assumptions. Generalized to “economists” which doesn’t make sense.

[Marksman]

In before Keed makes another dumb ass “Big hydroxychloroquine” quip.

[Marksman]

What you are experiencing there is a huge problem most countries are going to face and I am afraid most are going to get it wrong, pushing things back much too early and blowing stuff up again.

The hope, even if that happens, is some of the practices learned by community right now will continue on and at least reduce the overall spread of a second wave.

However, I can easily see countries who only had a mild impact the first go around having a much worse time on a redux.

[Twist]

My guess: The pdf is only for the city of New York but the info on Worldometers incorporates the entire state?

[econophile]

The data you linked is for New York City only. There have been a lot of deaths in New York outside of the city limits.

You can see deaths for the whole state and each county here: https://covid19tracker.health.ny.gov/views/NYS-COVID19-Tracker/NYSDOHCOVID-19Tracker-Fatalities?%3Aembed=yes&%3Atoolbar=no&%3Atabs=n

New York City has five boroghs, and each is its own county:
Bronx (Bronx)
Brooklyn (Kings)
Manhattan (New York)
Staten Island (Richmond)
Queens (Queens)

[anon38180840]

@suzzer99

This exchange is going to go on until the end of time isn’t it?

NYC is not Italy right now. 60 year-olds who need a ventilator aren’t being turned away. It could get that way. But it’s not right now. Most of the major authorities involved seem to be signaling they’re going to scrape by with enough ventilators.

But NYC is putting two people to a ventilator right? That has to worsen outcomes, and I assume there’s a reason the rate of survival on vents in NYC is worse than it is elsewhere in the world.

[econophile]

Based on the reports I have seen, double-venting only appears to be happening temporarily in certain New York hospitals until ventilators are shifted from other hospitals or the state stockpile.

[econophile]

Latest update from Cuomo:

Daily Deaths
April 2: 562
April 3: 630
April 4: 594
April 5: 599
April 6: 731

Daily hospitalizations slightly up, ICU admits and intubations still falling

While deaths are up from yesterday, they are essentially right on the trend of the IHME projections (actually a tiny bit under).

[superuberbob]

Yup. Seems to be the thing. I mean they aren’t emphasizing the economy as directly as America is but when they say “People’s lives need to go back to normal”, it’s their way of referring to the economy.

Literally a few minutes ago, the government agreed to extending the state of emergency to April 30th. So a bunch of those restrictions that they thought they could loosen after Easter aren’t going to take place until at least after April ends.

[Marksman]

Dang that is an insane amount of aspirin. I bet some just bled out internally too.

[Marksman]

I just saw this tweet and for some reason it made me laugh.

https://twitter.com/realMikeLindell/status/1246921083296636928

[anon10396289]

It’s a fifty billion dollar company. Everyone with money in mutual funds has a “small personal financial interest in Sanofi”.

[anon92450360]

Yes, please follow literal crackhead Mike Lindell

[TheHip41]

@anon10396289

Interesting that autoimmune diseases aren’t on there. There are probably tens of millions of Americans taking immunosuppressive drugs like Humira and Enbrel for autoimmune diseases, and I haven’t heard anything about those people being at high risk. You could come up with a plausible theory that those sorts of drugs could either be helpful or harmful to someone with covid; they could be harmful because they are immunosuppresive and hinder the body’s immune reaction to the virus. But they could be helpful because they are immunosuppressive and dampen the cytokine storm that actually ends up killing people.

I had some internal eye inflammation issues a few years back and ended up on Humira

The drug is designed to tell your immune system to slow the fuck down

Im guessing it would help with the covid portion but it’s probably bad overall for getting sick

[Mr_Unstoppable]

@anon92450360

Yes, please follow literal crackhead Mike Lindell

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[Churchill]

New York records largest spike in deaths

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has just updated the latest death toll in the state, which is still the hardest hit location in the US.

On Monday, 731 people died from coronavirus complications, the largest single-day rise in the New York death toll.

There are now a total of 38,836 cases and 5,489 deaths in New York.

Neighbouring New Jersey has just surpassed 1,000 deaths, says Cuomo.

“We are projecting we are reaching a plateau,” in the level of new patients requiring hospital, says the governor.

He adds that the city and federal government have created around 3,000 new emergency hospital beds to help relieve overcrowded hospitals, where medical workers are beginning be sickened by the virus in large numbers.

[Marksman]

Likewise everyone got a 1.2 million dollar grift check from Novartis. Like I said you got all the angles covered on keeping Donald J. Trump clean. You should be hired as his new fixer.

[superuberbob]

ALRIGHT BOGGS! YOU ASKED FOR IT!

[Soulman]

Quick update from Norway, one of the countries whom, imho, have responded fairly close to perfect based on the available information. Like others, we definitely weren’t prepared equiment-wise. Our version of the CDC have had their funding cut quite a bit over the years as well. Still, it’s played out pretty great.

Some stats from worldometers:

The next one shows a running total of admitted patients (can’t find the graph right now, but # of patients in the ICU follows more or less the same pattern:

Original strategy March 13th → April 20th, highlights

• Restaurants, bars etc not mandated closed, but need to satisfy safety regulations (2 meters etc). Quite a few closed anyway.
• All schools and kindergardens closed
• Many other business representing unacceptable levels of risk (hairdressers e.g.) had to close
• Public gatherings above 5 people illegal
• Work from home recommendation, though not mandated

Based on the graphs above, our CDC current’s assessment of R = 0.7 (0.45-1) - down from an estimate of 2.4 before March 13th.

New strategy from April 20th

• Open kindergardens and grades 1-4 of primary school, with other grades expected to open shortly after
• Allow most 1-1 businesses (hairdressers etc) to open
• Public gatherings above 5 people still illegal until June 15th (and prob beyond)
• Work from home recommendation (not an order) still in effect
• Do extensive tracing of infected with an app to be released shortly (not mandated)
• Keep testing extensively (we’ve tested roughly double the amount of South Korea per capita iirc)
• Quarantine orders at the slightest sign of symptoms

Denmark and Austria did roughly the same yesterday.

Long-term strategy is to keep R below 1 until a vaccine is developed. If things spiral out of control, harsher measures will be re-introduced.

Gonna be very interesting to see how this plays out! I have faith in this approach both for keeping R at an acceptable level and minimizing other damage to society. imo not an optimal strategy for all countries (e.g. requires a high level of trust in government), but fairly optimal here.