https://twitter.com/marklemley/status/1257870942199406593?s=20
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Pretty hard to view that anything other than a preemptive cover up.
Nothing there indicated there was a legitimate reason for the University to stop. Even if the state is getting data from elsewhere it is invaluable experience as a modeling exercise.
We keep seeing signs from current and former leaders of various states that they are pushing ahead with reopening even though they know it will absolutely kill people.
All I see is sweet beautiful freedom.
That type of societal collapse is not going to happen. The virus doesnât kill enough young people to affect production over a sustained period and plenty of countries have already shown they can control it and keep essential production going. On top of that vaccine testing has already shown that there is at least some lasting immunity response possible so you donât end up with everyone being sick.
Rationally yes but I canât fault people for feeling like the world is âendingâ.
To see people fall for the Trumpaganda is what makes me almost despondent. I just got âjust fluâ response on LinkedIn and I am on life tilt over it.
What I want to know is when did the non nazi Germans just give up and just go along? There had to be a point.
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Cases, Iâm assuming everywhere, are artificially low. Easy to game and tough to know without random samples of the gen pop being tested.
Deaths are tougher to game. When people die, at unusual rates especially, people notice. I am always also assuming there have been lots of people in every state/country that have been undercounted, like flu deaths are undercounted routinely, because people die of multiple system failure, or pneumonia, or whatever and itâs just not documented.
What I think is a stretch would be to say that certain states are dramatically more forthcoming or simply have the necessary data which would make them so
much more accurate than other states. This is especially the case when the State one is claiming is more forthcoming, because of some partisan bullshit like they have a Democratic governor (who, by the way, is becoming Trumpâs favorite), has actually taken less significant sheltering actions than the State supposedly covering shit up Stalin style.
Get the Fuck Out . Ari
From the very beginning, just like us.
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What is happening in the US amazes me every day and I can understand people living there are a lot more anxious about what is going to happen. There will definitely be a lot of deaths that could have been avoided and sadly it will probably not be the idiots that want to reopen that die.
Itâs probably a mistake to think there was sort of single point. Germany went from huge unemployment to almost none under the Nazis.
People like a winner. Republicans understand this, which is why they have fixated on the politically potent strategy of denying anything that can be spun as a Democratic victory, even if it is bad for the people or the nation. The Nazis had several victories that they could spin as undoing the harm and humiliation of Versailles. These include the remilitarization of the Rhineland and the Anschluss plebiscite.
Iâm sure there are more examples, but I have only a basic knowledge of WW2. Iâm probably missing something.
Thereâs a lot of inertia in public opinion. Non-Nazis Germans went along because they had no reason not to. Those that werenât Jews werenât subjected to anti-Semitism. They had jobs they were grateful for, even if they werenât the best of jobs. And their side was winning. Once they felt like badasses for running over France, many German people were emotionally pot-committed to winning the war and were going to be loathe to surrender, even if they werenât Nazis.
Youâve been listening to Donny again?
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This article has a couple nice graphs from a paper on the D614G mutation.
I mean, thatâs all you really need to know right there. This is useful too:
Note that these are positive test samples received and donât translate directly into case numbers, but look at NY. D614 variant arrives, is just sort of meandering along, G614 arrives and wrecks their shit.
Edit: Also confirming that Australia had all D614 pre-lockdowns, which is what I had suspected.
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Of course he fucking is. Itâs only due to our own inability to accept reality and/or laziness that we arenât taking turns getting White House jobs, leaking like a sieve, sabotaging like a motherfucker, getting some crazy shit on tape, getting fired, and writing a book. I mean, seriously, how easy is it?
- Scrub social media of liberal content
- Post a bunch of Pro-Trump stuff on Twitter
- Write a book DOW 50K TRUMP MAGA KING
- Start a blog about how awesome Trump is
- Tweet at Trump daily
- Wait for the call
My problem would be associating my name with 2 through 5. Itâd really suck on the off chance the plan didnât work and everyone just thought I was a MAGA piece of shit.
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Thank you for posting these. Very interesting. If the dominant strain in the US is G614 that does not bode well for getting OPEN FOR BUSINESS right?
This debate with jman fascinates me, because I could argue both sides. Most red states will fudge the numbers. They will avoid testing. So, like, how high can âpneumoniaâ deaths go before people figure it out. Like, if someone loses an elderly relative to pneumonia, will they think anything of it? What if the doctor says, âIt was likely coronavirus, but we couldnât test.â
We live in a post-truth society where there are two huge sets of people: the ~57% of us who believe in real facts and the ~43% of them who are in the MAGA cult. Weâre about to run a massive social experiment to see how far people will go to keep believing their bullshit. How much pain and death do they tolerate while still trusting Donald Trump? How many people can lose parents to COVID-19, be told there are no tests and itâs officially pneumonia, then listen to Dear Leader telling them how awesome a job heâs done and keep loving him? Weâre about to find out, Iâm afraid.
I just donât know. Will hospitals get overrun? Or will they manage to do just enough to keep the curve juuust flat enough? Thereâs an amount of death they can basically hide in the statistics, youâll have some people suspicious but if theyâre on the GOP Kool Aid they legit might not even think grandma died from COVID.
There is clearly a pain/fear threshold where as a country we basically force them to shutdown because people are more scared of going to work than they are of starving. I donât think 3K-5K deaths a day is it, and I think itâs more regional. I also donât think a lot of deaths of the 60+ demographic do it, I think people just isolate their parents/grandparents and stay at it.
When jman talks of societal collapse but being kind of unsure about it, I see it as domestic government disputes, at least here in the US. Societies will collapse over this, but the first to go down will be third world countries with food shortages⌠Probably within the next 1-3 months if nothing else happens first to fix the issue, the early warning signs are already there with people standing out with flags in Guatemala to show they need food, Zimbabwe begging for loans, etc.
Here it will be more political and more nuanced, at least at first. What happens when Abbott (TX governor) tells Austin, Houston, San Antonio, etc to open back up for business and keep a stiff upper lip as the virus rips through there and their mayors tell him to go fuck himself? Same for Atlanta, Miami, etc⌠What will happen when blue states shut down, Trump blames them for being incompetent un-American snowflakey pussies, and Mitch cuts off their stimulus and unemployment? Weâre drawing live to a lot of scary/crazy shit, but itâll likely start with emergency SCOTUS sessions. Losing RBG right now could be even more catastrophic than we usually think, because any hope we have relies on Roberts doing something relatively sensible.
So the way we have a societal breakdown in the US imo would be something like:
- Liberal city in a red state has an outbreak, shuts down.
- Red state governor orders liberal mayor to stay open, announces that everything is fine.
- They sue each other, it goes to SCOTUS.
- If SCOTUS rules for the city, I think weâre fine societally. If they rule for the state, you may get extreme unrest and societal breakdown because the political will in the city will be for the mayor to still defy the order.
- That could lead to some form of martial law to enforce the open for business policy.
From here itâs interesting, because IANAL and I donât know who has the authority here on these issues in our federalized system. But I also donât know if the Supreme Court ruling will be ultimately based on who has the authority legally or on what needs to be done to protect the societal structure of the United States. Roberts will have to consider that in his ruling, Iâm sure.
If it happens with a state trying to stay shut down without UI assistance from the federal government, Iâm not sure where it goes. A governor tries to have his residents withhold federal taxes? Cuomo has his AG sieze some of Trumpâs assets? There are a lot of ways this could be played, and Iâm sure Cuomo, Newsom, Pritzker and a few others are already gaming out some strategies with their most trusted staff members. Theyâre intelligent enough to know that thereâs a high likelihood of having to shutdown without federal assistance, and they know they will need it⌠they must be strategizing.
Meanwhile under all of this is another question⌠How bad can this get and how close to the brink of societal collapse would the GOP let it go before they removed Trump from office and told Pence to fucking shut it down? Thereâs some threshold where that happens, but I canât begin to guess whether itâs 500K deaths by September or 1M or 3M? Ultimately it has more to do with peopleâs reaction to the deaths, and the economic impact of that reaction. Thatâs all that our corporate overlords care about.
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Depends how you want to look at it. From the looks of it, weâre going to get to herd immunity REAL fucking quick. Just take one of those charts, get out your blue Sharpie and draw a vertical line for good olâ USA#1.
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When you say real quick I assume you mean 6-12 months still minimum right?
As to your other post I think you are right about where we are headed and the possible outcomes. Iâm not sure I think there is ANY threshold for the MAGA dumbasses to take this seriously now. They have gotten their marching orders from Daddy and these people live their entire life reveling in their own ignorance so there is no chance they ever admit they were wrong here. So it will come down to what blue state/city governors and mayors will do. Relying on Democrats to stand up for anything has been a fools errand for a long time.
So bottom like I think we are most likely going herd immunity and the 1m+ dead scenarios that the right wing media is currently mocking are very much possible over the next 18 months. 1m dead is less than 2k/day over the next 18 months. If we donât find a cure/vaccine or if we donât get lucky with a mutation or summer I donât see how we avoid that and maybe worse.
Thatâs just a telephoto lens
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Yeah, I was being hyperbolic there. It totally depends how long they go with little/no restrictions, whether or not it slows down as we start to get to 30, 40, 50, etc, % infected and (hopefully) immune. I told a friend yesterday that if we basically just let it go, I think it possibly burns out sometime in the fall, possibly by election day, and I donât think itâs a total coincidence that we seem to be gearing up for that strategy just in time for that timeline. Itâs just impossible to accurately project as a layman, because you have to factor in the changes in the Rt as the curve grows.
Of course there would still be a legit chance for a second wave, too, I would assume. Like thatâs the problem, what if half of the infected peopleâs immunity wore off by December/January? We just go right on back up the roller coaster curve of death, I assume?
I donât think the US has the stomach for months of overrun hospitals without attempting to mitigate, but Iâve been nothing but shocked and horrified by the lengths to which people have gone to protest for their right to go die for their corporate overlords to get richer. I would assume the GOP has some plan for this, but who the fuck knows? I assume they arenât dumb enough to think they can just open up and itâll all be ok, because theyâre trying to suppress the data⌠so theyâre also going to have to do some sinister shit to suppress whatâs going on at hospitals or to make them appear overrun.
That said, we basically did it in New York and hardly anyone is talking about it. Like, to me thatâs a HUGE thing in this thatâs gone under the radar. New Yorkâs hospitals were overrun. They were past capacity. People were showing up in need of urgent medical care and not getting it, then dying. But you didnât hear about it the way you did with Italy. Why? I think a few reasons.
- They didnât turn people away by some pre-existing criteria, like being 60+ or having an underlying illness, they did it by severity of case.
- They didnât deny care to hospitalized people explicitly, they rationed it. (Like we did 2 to a vent instead of turning away old people from vents.)
So, the mortality rate was probably way higher than it would have been with proper care, but there werenât stories of people being told, âNothing we can do, youâre totally fucked, go home and die.â
Instead it was people being told they werenât sick enough to be in the hospital, go home and get better. Call us if it gets worse. But then these people ended up dying, paramedics called to the scene to pronunce them, etc. Even the paramedic resources ran low, the wait times were up, they were pronouncing people dead instead of a doctor at a hospital, etc. But most people donât know how thatâs supposed to work anyway. Those who werenât directly impacted also probably thought that if they got sick enough theyâd get hospital care, so you didnât see the level of urgency as in ItalyâŚ
At least that was my impression from watching the news. Maybe some of our New Yorkers can shed more light on what it was actually like there. I donât think a lot of people around the country are as terrified of the virus as they should be, because I think New York managed to make it look like they were less overrun than they were. Iâm not sure the degree to which medical professionalsâ cooperation would be necessary with this, obviously quite a few talked to the press about how bad it was, but you never heard about them sending people home explicitly to die, because that wasnât happening.
I would expect DeSantis and Kemp to try to orchestrate something similar, but the degree to which doctors and nurses go along with it will probably be a lot different because in NY at least Cuomo was doing his best to flatten the curve and mitigate. Itâs an easier sell to try to use a system of rationing that doesnât panic people when youâre actually doing the right thing at that point in time. I assume in places like FL/GA/TX, youâll just see blatant non-counting of at home deaths, and youâll see Fox News spinning that as a liberal conspiracy to get after the president, blah blah blah.
I feel like just about anyone on this forumâs guess is as good as anyone elseâs at how far they can take it and how successful theyâll be. Weâre in a totally unprecedented situation here. A death cult of personality is about to square off with a lethal pandemic, and weâre all strapped in there with them to some degree or another.
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