COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

JB Pritzker has released the reopening plan for IL. Seems very reponsible at first glance.

https://coronavirus.illinois.gov/sfc/servlet.shepherd/document/download/069t000000BadS0AAJ?operationContext=S1

5 Phases

You can read the link if you want to know about the jumps from phase to phase, but I’m pretty happy to be living here for once.

The negative result may well be worth it for me. I’ll report back if i get one.

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This is taken from a fake TikTok video. I have posted it earlier myself but subsequently deleted it.

This is the “nicest” mall in OKC. A lot of places are not going to get OPEN FOR BUSINESS if it means literally murdering your customers.

Ok nobody faint at the fact I posted something slightly positive.

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Now do one 20 miles outside the city…

Most of those places didn’t close down at all here. There were still bars I heard about operating outside of the metro during the whole thing.

I’d be down for universal basic training

If you take two different ones you dramatically decrease the false positive rate (if you assume you need both to positive). 3 even better. Diminishing returns after that.

If you have the extra money to burn.

:grin:

https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1257760919096082433?s=21

Wow. That says something about saturation for herd immunity. And it’s not good.

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Don’t know if ponied but apparently the claim is sweden got their R under 1 without a lockdown and has flattened their curve. I’m skeptical but I suppose its possible with an educated population that follows the guidelines very well and half the population lives alone.

Sweden’s YOLO expirament was basically equivalent to most USA lockdowns, maybe a tiny bit harsher. It does actually appear that they have a R slightly below one just eyeballing it.

Their largest city has 1.5m people(who are undoubtedly healthier than your average american) so trying to use that as some kind of a gotcha data point has always been super weak.

Not even sure what the purpose of testing prisons is at this point. Like, they’re pretty much all gonna get infected.

Not sure it does if all of these people got sick within a short time period. Wouldn’t the benefits of herd immunity only happen after the right percent of people have recovered and presumably have immunity?

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https://mobile.twitter.com/atrupar/status/1257772489653882880

Seems like herd immunity is not really a fixed number and also depends on proximity people are in. Put 10 people in a phone booth, 8 who have recovered one who is infected and one who has had no exposure and they will get it. Take a city where half the people have immunity and that R number is less than one and the pandemic fades out. That’s herd immunity, right? It doesn’t mean unexposed people are actually immune.

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Right, but then the 8 who have recovered don’t go on to infect another bunch of people they cross paths with. Which is how herd immunity slows transmission. In a closed environment with a relatively long period of being infectious this could go around to everybody before anybody has immunity. Which is why I’m saying a large percent of a prison population getting infected likely doesn’t tell us much about herd immunity.

Yeah, I was concurring.

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The Navajo Nation deaths are not included in Utah deaths.

The cases where people contracted CV then traveled here were not included in the Utah case count. If they had subsequently died here wtf knows where they would’ve been counted.