Lots of (scientific) debate over this, especially the conclusions.
Don’t discount, but don’t rely on this either.
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and
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I guess you mean you’re not getting sick from shaking hands and passing someone on a sidewalk, so why do it?
Already info out about how it’s affecting minority populations a LOT more.
Evolutionary nit ITT. Apparently Mitch’s daughters are libs. So not sure political views seem to be much more nurture over nature. Much easier to reprogram or reject faulty thinking.
I do think that even with no restrictions some people will still be taking precautions and that will help to limit R as we move forward. That being said most places with precautions were slightly above or below R=1 so it won’t take much to see more significant exponential growth. The real question left is will it get bad enough anywhere for governments to do a second wave of shutdowns. I think it would have to get pretty bad and while I am confident we are about to start seeing growth in new cases again I am not sure it will get bad enough in most places to see a second round of shutdowns.
I don’t now either, but the general point was “it’s not over” and that stands. I first looked up Germany and the state just seems to be paying pretty much all non-essential two thirds of their salary so no one has to be laid off or partially laid off. Again, it’s not over. And I know years of telling Republicans that the deficit is not nearly the problem they make it out to be has forced people into the position that printing money solves all problems, but again, it’s not over.
Also, I don’t really understand what “suck eggs” means there. Speak American!
edit: Ok, I looked it up. I guess you weren’t teaching me to suck eggs. More like something of a nit and something of a derail I think.
Getting R down helps with society risk and your personal risk.
Some people are ok there. Others will want to get their personal risk as low as possible and go full shut in.
Completely agree that the best we’ve done outside of some hard hit places is pretty close to R=1 and relaxing will only go up.
I think we could tolerate some 1.1 time if we could choke it off. At low a low case level and native 1.1 then contact tracing has a chance to suppress effective R below 1.
I am legit shocked that we don’t have a single forum member infected yet. Is that right?
I imagine it’s all based on chance anyway. Like passing within 10ft but not 6ft of a contagious person might give you a 1% chance of getting it while shaking hands would give you a 3% chance. Small either way, but definitely more likely with more close contact.
Most of the US hasn’t really been exposed to Covid-19 yet. Plus most of us are going to be taking precautions long after restrictions.
I think the vast majority of cases (like 90%) never get tested, so people may have it, they just don’t know. Like in my city, there’s been 50 deaths, but they say only 1800 total cases today. That either means that 5% of the people who get it die or… 5-10k people had it 2 weeks ago and 10-20k people have it today.
Which all just boils down to the fact that it’s basically impossible to make good decisions, because we have no idea what things actually look like. Avoid people if you can for as long as you can.
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Everyone here is pretty much in the top 1 percentile as far as being careful goes. I haven’t physically touched a person in 7 weeks. Been offered a few handshakes in which I LOL in real life.
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I imagine that’s true as well. As far as the numbers go, a 3% chance from shaking hands sounds believable to me (unless you are sure you wash your hands before contaminating anything), but a 1% chance of catching it from walking past a contagious person at a 6’ distance or 10’ distance seems way high.
And not just touching hands. It makes sense that halving the distance between people would multiply the likelyhood of transmission by at least 4 to 8.
I mean, only like two people here have been tested for it.
I think there is a small chance I had it. I had taken it off the table due to timing and region, (late January around Boston), and the fact that nobody around me seemed to get what I had. But with new info coming out about different areas having earlier cases I think it is possible.
Well sure, but all of the Karen’s will go get their hair done.
Right, but no one even seriously thinks they had it, right? This is meant to be a pat on UP’s back, not a dumb claim that this is all overblown.
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A bunch of us have had mild symptoms consistent with a not very serious case of the 'Rona. Seems reasonable to think at least a couple actually had it.
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I was on a conference call yesterday with someone who has it and is trying to work through it. Thinks he got it from his nanny.
Was his nanny sick?
I also think there’s a small chance I had it. Had a bout of diarrhea, very slight shortness of breath for a couple of weeks, and weird heart palpitations for a while. Still not sure the shortness of breath and heart palpitations weren’t all in my head. Felt fine though, never ran a fever or had a cough. Who the hell knows. No one at my work got sick and I was working the whole time.