And yeah Johnson might be a fave to die at this point. Substantial chance anyway.
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For SK it’s %.02, for America it’s %.11. And those numbers are garbage because they’re testing way, way more people than we are in the US, so of course their percentages will be lower.
I really doubt contract tracing and containment is the key, it’s more like they have a basic functioning healthcare system and a long tradition of wearing facemasks and using sick leave and washing hands and whatnot.
My basic point here is we’re not ever containing this. It’s already spread worldwide. It’s all over South Korea, it’s all over North Korea, it’s over here in Bumblefuck, Ohio, it’s everywhere already.
They started saying 12-18 months on a vaccine in February. What I’m saying is in the fall we’ll be within sight of a vaccine, if all goes well. Seems like a weird time to have society say, “OK let’s all go see which 1-2% dies from this…”
My understanding is that herd immunity (which means the spread is stopped/slowed by a lack of available hosts) means ~70% have had it. At the most optimistic one-half of one percent mortality rate that’s a lot of death.
If the plan is plasma as early treatment, were going to need hundreds of millions of tests.
As far as I know, having 10% of an area infected does ~nothing to slow the spread other than scaring people into social distancing.
A competent administration deciding to let it run its course would expand ICU capacities and stockpile PPE and tests, then try to keep the curve below that capacity, treat and isolate early, etc.
This administration will talk the talk on expanding those capacities and stockpiles, put on a big show of one example (like one warehouse full of stuff), lie through their teeth, then say go back to work, and let people die en masse. Meanwhile they’ll do their best to avoid the dead being properly counted.
Hopefully federalism saves some of us.
Its less herd and more death than you seem to realize. Let’s say 250M Americans go back to normal and 80M isolate .7 * 250M is 175M.
175M * .002 = 350,000 dead people in the young/healthy group.
Now you have 175M/330M immune, to an unknown degree, for an unknown amount of time. That’s only 53%.
Meanwhile there’s a lot of anecdotal evidence that obesity may be a huge factor here, I don’t think anyone would disagree with that. Are we going to have every American with a BMI over 30 shelter in place? 40% of Americans are obese.
And there’s no way in hell this country lets poor people who are obese sit at home and ride this out while cutting them a check for UI + $2400/mo.
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By the way, let me also day that I think .2% as a mortality rate for the young in America is very optimistic. I would take the over on 1% right now, in which case we just killed at least 1.75M people. Maybe it’s 1% of like the 50% who are symptomatic, but that’s still 875K dead young Americans.
Not that any of this matters because there will obviously come a point where Trump is convinced that this is the elite move and that
a cocktail of hydroxychloroquinee + zpacks + zinc + elephant piss + tiger blood is going to save everyone, while protecting his stock market… And this time he won’t be talked out of it.
If anyone wants to be a badass at trivia, the last British PM to die in office was Lord Palmerston. I wouldn’t be surprised if the majority of Americans who are familiar with his name mostly know him as the subject of a violent argument over whether he was greater than Pitt the Elder.
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Is BoJo’s replacement any less awful? Can one of you UK bros tell us idiot Americans what we can expect if he dies?
yup it’s everywhere. Today there is a confirmed case in Eabametoong First Nation. Which is about as remote and middle of nowhere in Canada you can get.
If they have a case there you can be sure there is/will be a case everywhere. I think we are about to see some serious death numbers when all the small towns and smaller cities with poor access to health care get ravaged.
Lots of these small communities will record pneumonia deaths, but who can say if that’s due to corona or a very bad run of seasonal flu? It’s going to take epidemiologists decades to sort through the data.
PS: Maybe the ISS gets spared? Gonna be fucking lit if someone on the ISS get the corona.
Data, Bro.
We’ve finally enabled my entire team to work from home. Hearing them pack up and walk out today has been pretty emotional.
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Welcome to the mid-90s!
shrug
I’m not an IT guy. But apparently getting VPN, call recording and everything that goes along with a large call centre set up for working from home isn’t that simple.
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Oh a call center. You’ll want the mid-2000s then.
Maybe we can bring you on as a consultant. I reckon you could tell these guys how to do their jobs better while working from home.
Lol I thought you were pissed at your company for taking so long to do this and dragging it out putting people at risk. Now you’re sticking up for them?
Maybe we should close Unstuck from midnight-3 PT.
Say that to my face motherfucker.
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This is what I get for replying during the ninja edit window.
Boris is either in grave condition and likely to die or England is going out of their way to protect him by preemptively placing him in ICU so he gets the best possible care he can get when he needs it.
Considering he’s awake and talking, I doubt he’s in grave condition. But if he gets hooked up to a ventilator, it’s probably game over.
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