The way out is to get testing high enough and the new case count low enough to do South Korea style containment.
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I doubt that containment is an option for South Korea or any nation. Itâs already everywhere.
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Well the good news is when the economy reopens the 2nd wave is gonna hit like the Christmas Day Tsunami.
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Theyâre not incompatible if the olds/unhealthy stay isolated while the youngs all give it to each other.
I think the argument will be - which makes more sense - everyone stay home and isolated - or only the vulnerable people stay home and isolated?
I think one thing a lot of us discount is behavior changes in times that provide extreme motivation to do so. We tend to assume people behave statically. So much of our behavior has already radically changed in the last few months. I donât see any problem with people wearing masks if theyâre told to do so right now.
Case in point - as discussed here - Italy may have saved a ton of lives elsewhere in the West by giving people a concrete example of a society they can relate to going through hell. The models could never factor something like that in. But it may have happened that way.
Old people will get their shit together imo once they see someone go through hell. If not there will probably be enough vents and ICU beds to accommodate them.
If the olds can just somehow sit tight while everyone else gets it - thatâs a lot of herd. And there will have to be some form of better treatment.
Anyway Iâm just arguing for one potential strategy I see maybe happening. I have no idea if this is even the most likely scenario. And the moral implications are staggering.
I guess one way to tell if the govt is going to pursue this is if they keep pushing for more vents even after the first wave crests. If so I would guess theyâre going to try to push it even farther next time.
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Well South Korea are decreasing their number of active cases and they have achieved this without widespread lockdowns. Theyâre using mobile phone tracking data for contact tracing though, which might not be legal in USA#1.
What I mean by containment is: spam tests for contact tracing, vulnerable groups like nursing home employees and random sampling.
By the way fucking fuck chrome spellcheck again. I swear itâs getting worse.
Somehow by changing one of the oâs to an a - it was able to figure out what I wanted.
Canât explain that.
Nursing homes are the toughest. Itâs going to be so difficult to keep out of those. But even âlocked downâ as we are now, itâs still insanely difficult. Most of the employees are young and a lot work in multiple places.
Iâm friends with a married couple who both work in nursing homes in the LA area. Last I heard they had a couple presumptive positives but tests hadnât come back yet. Their lives are hell right now.
We went for a socially distant walk when I brought them the last of my masks. We happened to walk along an overlook where Dave pointed out his nursing home. Walking out were 4 of his employees - bunched together like it was still January 2020. He had to yell at them to get 6â apart. Probably freaked them out thinking he was spying on them.
On the herd immunity front - I wonder what % of nursing homes this thing has already plowed through?
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https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1247343900475490304?s=19
https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1247344887713992705?s=19
https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1247345795575283712?s=19
https://twitter.com/steak_umm/status/1247346708801077248?s=19
Steak umm account dropping truth bombs
What a time to be alive!
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Wait, are those from the actual company? They still make Steak-umms?
Are you actually telling me that in the year of our lord 2020 it is still possible to buy the dumb as fuck marketing gimmick product from the 80âs known as Steak-umms?
I am struggling to process this information.
See you in a month
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Iâm skeptical of how well contact tracing can work for a disease thatâs already gone pandemic worldwide. It feels like closing the barn doors after the cows have fled at this point. Iâm halfway around the world from Wuhan and Iâm on lockdown, youâre not ever containing this. Think itâs more likely South Korea got hit hard early and because of that theyâre on the mend early.
Damn. So if Iâm to believe comments here, thereâs a 50/50 chance Boris will be dead in a couple weeks?
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Fuck me, man. Last I checked, your odds of survival are less than 20% once youâre on a ventilator. Guy is a monumental cancer on humanity but I still feel weird about this. Maybe Iâm just soft-hearted.
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The largest study so far to look at mortality among coronavirus patients on ventilators was done by the Intensive Care National Audit & Research Centre in London. It found that among 98 ventilated patients in the U.K., just 33 were discharged alive.
glgl Boris
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Thoughts and prayers.
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Theyâve had barely more than 10,000 cases total in a country of 50 million, they didnât really get hit hard, they were just one of the first to get hit.
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