Well then that goes against the argument that it’s $50k per flight if the helicopter is flying back and forth constantly.
This is an article worth reading, built mostly around comments from a University of Melbourne epidemiologist. As Australia appears to be getting the epidemic under control, we’re moving into a sort of “end of the beginning” phase, where the question is “OK, what now”.
It seems hard to imagine continuing lockdowns on this level for 18+ months per option 2, so maybe we will end up going for a herd immunity strategy at some point. I don’t think the question of where things go beyond the next 6 months has really penetrated the discourse yet, and I think there might not be awareness yet of how much this is going to drag on.
Edit: Also, the Australian Government is releasing its modelling later today, so that should be interesting. Hopefully it will help to see whether eradication is a viable option (I think not, but it might be possible to eradicate it from certain states).
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After the recent SLC earthquake, one of the 3 helipads on one building at the U Hospital was shutdown because there was some cracking at a corner of the building. It might take a few extra flights to pay for repairs.
I think part of the problem in New York is that the first identified case and first cluster were in New Rochelle, in Westchester county. The state shut down a 1-mile radius around that cluster starting on March 12th, but didn’t shut down NYC until later. Here’s the case counts in Westchester county compared to all five NYC buroughs during the first half of March.
| Date | Westchester | NYC |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Mar-20 | 1 | 0 |
| 3-Mar-20 | 1 | 0 |
| 4-Mar-20 | 1 | 2 |
| 5-Mar-20 | 20 | 4 |
| 6-Mar-20 | 20 | 11 |
| 7-Mar-20 | 42 | 11 |
| 8-Mar-20 | 60 | 15 |
| 9-Mar-20 | 102 | 27 |
| 10-Mar-20 | 111 | 51 |
| 11-Mar-20 | 132 | 64 |
| 12-Mar-20 | 151 | 112 |
| 13-Mar-20 | 171 | 213 |
| 14-Mar-20 | 182 | 287 |
| 15-Mar-20 | 223 | 457 |
Russia’s RT America has stoked fear around the “5G Apocalypse” for a while now—and as The New York Times warned in a report on the subject last May, the network is “known for sowing disinformation.” Another petri dish where these apocalyptic fantasies have blossomed? According to BuzzFeed’s report, QAnon.
People are just too fucking stupid for humanity’s equilibrium to be anything other than absolute hell. Human beings suck and the most unfair part of all is that the people who don’t suck feel the pain and the assholes in charge only feel pleasure, with the most sociopathic among them reaping the greatest benefits.
The only hope a good person has is to retreat to the safety of the hyper-local. Thinking about the horror show that is our society, with zero ability to change it, is a guaranteed recipe for misery.
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I really just don’t see a scenario where things go back to “normal” within the next two years, unless the virus somehow miraculously just disappears. But I haven’t gotten anyone irl to talk about that (other than my dad), everyone seems to think we’ll be back to normal in two months or so.
And it raises a lot of interesting questions. Like is the government going to continue these payroll grants for two years? No way, right? If they don’t make the right decisions now, the economy is actually going to crash and that really wouldn’t be good.
A lot of things can happen.
We probably open up in some more limited capacity in a month or two.
In NY state they’re heading for 1% of the population confirmed positive - which means it’s possible up to 10% could have herd immunity. And it sounds very very likely that plasma from people with antibodies is a good treatment.
More treatments will come online. Easy antibody testing will be a huge game changer. Could be a bit of a summer pause. Masks could help a lot.
People will behave a lot differently now that everyone (except certain governors) knows that asymptomatic people can still be contagious.
But we could easily still be in for another lockdown phase in the fall.
Ultimately it may come down to building a bunch of makeshift ICU wards with ventilators and just more or less letting it take its course (with lots of PSAs, masks, etc). Maybe by then fatalities will be much lower due to better treatments and possibly smaller initial doses. I’m not saying that’s right, just saying one outcome I could see.
What if we develop a vaccine plus humans start to build up an antibody library against coronavirus and it evolves to be less lethal and it gradually becomes one of the many endemic bugs we deal with every year? I dunno, people tend have short memories, I can easily see everyone going back to their normal routine of going to restaurants and concerts and not washing their hands and showing up to work sick.
I’m a little skeptical. It sounds like this is something you need to administer early on when most infected people will just think they have the flu or a cough or something. Still, a lot of people are working on this, here is a pretty good article on plasma treatments:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00895-8
The good news is that you can get blood serum right away, and you don’t have to wait for vaccines.
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Iran is going to come out of this with legit herd immunity and dominate the region.
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I still think we might be in store for very brief cycles of opening things up and closing them down. Local/state governments are gonna have to be really clear about it so people don’t go nuts…like “we’re reopening nonessential businesses, maybe some restaurants and movie theaters and malls with strict occupancy requirements. However be prepared for a shelter-in-place order to be reissued at any time.” Maybe it lasts for a month before cases start shooting up again, maybe a week.
It’s a bit like touching the stove again to make sure it’s still hot, but it might be the only reliable tool to really see how herd immunity is progressing.
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
I have a friend (mom of my kid’s former classmate) who is a total health nutjob. She complained to the school because there was a cell tower next to the athletic field. Causes cancer or whatever. She also has some device hanging on her router to cancel out harmful waves.
I eventually blocked her posts from showing up in my Facebook feed. I was all Dr. Mercola and shit.
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The roaring 20s
They had a baseball season in 1919. A bit of scandal iirc…
Point is when there is a true all clear then life will return fairly quickly to normal. Maybe a fair bit of caution the first few months. Hopefully some common sense (if you are sick where a freakin mask).
End of year 1- stadiums packed.
Another plague in 10 years or less we do better. After that we start all over.
US changes next to nothing in healthcare nor sick leave etc. rigged senate if nothing else.
Yeah, I know we don’t want this to become a finance bro thread but I’m trying to figure out what to do with my assets, because it doesn’t seem like most people, including most investors, are aware of what the timeframe of this will be. Like lol at this Dow rally apparently based on the easing-off of coronavirus cases in the US, I don’t see how that has any bearing at all on the economic fallout.
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I think there’s gonna be a lot of pressure to let the youngs/healthies keep the economy alive and the olds/unhealthies to hunker down for an interminably long amount of time.
1918 didn’t have much fallout for whatever reason. Also you can always take it to the Personal Finance thread.
I was out of the market then got back in when Will posted (and stats confirmed) that WA was slowing down. I wasn’t confident enough in a ton of downside and no upside to stay out of the market. I only felt that way if the US was gonna be a lot of little Italy’s which would cause another wave of panic. Last week was a tester though.
Long term who the hell knows but I feel like maybe finance bros have a lot better handle on that kind of stuff than I do. I’m currently in 4 stocks that should at least survive no matter what, 9+ year time horizon.
You kinda have to marry the fact that a relatively small group of people have all the money and have to do something with it (like buy stocks!) with the fact that actual economic output will be somewhere between marginally lower and a lot lower this year.