Yeah I see this as confirming middle case scenarios. 0.5-1% IFR. No massive stealth spread. One trend that might be suppressing IFR here is that younger people have probably been more brazen going out in public or through their service jobs, while many olds probably locked down a ~week earlier voluntarily. So the antibody+ population might skew younger.
Now we need three things:
Antibody tests on this scale in every major metro area plus some rural areas.
Demographic information on the test sample and the antibody+ population.
Survey of people with antibodies. Clear questions asking about whether they were aware of the illness, whether they sought medical attention, whether they have full recovered, duration of symptoms, and if there are any lingering effects.
Iām happier than a pig in shit. This lockdown could go on for years as far as Iām concerned. My life hasnāt changed much at all, other than the fact that I cant get a haircut. And the great thing is I donāt have to feel bad about it anymore, Iām actually helping.
Like dont point a gun to my head and tell me to stay inside all day, work from home, and play video games. Youāre really pulling my arm here.
I am trying to get people around me to understand that our lives wont be normal until many months after thereās a vaccine available. People arent coming to terms with this reality.
Meanwhile Iām enjoying life quite a bit with this and dont feel bad about it at all. Iām doing what Iām supposed to, Iām following guidelines.
The interesting impact on the economy will come from people realizing they were chasing consumerism out of boredom.
People finding out they can live comfortably while spending less money is not surprising. It will be interesting if that has any lasting effect on consumption.
If this happened the economic impact would be be many multiples more destructive than not being OPEN FOR BUSINESS. The flickering screen in our house is going to be pumping out the propaganda to trick us back into it and it will probably work.
Iāve been thinking a lot about this. The immediate financial impact has been terrible in certain industries like hospitality and travel - but not much in others like software.
However - isnāt the whole damn economy driven by our need to work our asses for the fun things? Like whatās the point of killing yourself if you canāt spend the money on fancy trips, fancy dinners, cars you can never drive, stuff for your house you can never show off to anyone, concerts and sporting events, etc. Whatās left - fancy houses you canāt show off? Diamond rings for your spouse youāre trapped with? Save money so you can retire and do pretty much the same thing youāre doing now (for those of us working from home without a shitload to do)?
If those fun things were to go away forever, it seems like most of the fuel behind the economy goes away too. Obviously theyāre not going away forever. But even if they go away for a while - is the spell broken somewhat?
I know personally I just canāt even imagine caring as much about sports as I did a few months ago. Iāve been watching the Chiefs postseason wins while on my exercise bike (I mean I still care some) - but seeing the crowd absolutely freak out kind of freaks me out. People in the stands are losing their fucking minds over basically a bunch of nonsense. Grown men playing a game. And that was me two months ago!
For the first time I think I have a glimpse into how insane that must all look to someone who doesnāt care at all about sports. Thatās new.
Have you ever found a forehead thermometer that didnāt have a margin of error of like plus or minus 4 degrees though? Like Iāll literally hold it up to my daughters head, get a reading of 96, hold it up a second time, get a reading of 100. I get that the expensive ones in the doctors offices work, but the crappy ones you can buy at CVS?
I am sure some spending habits for some people will change when this is over. I think there are lots are people who are basically addicted to spending money on shit they donāt need. Now theyāre breaking the habit cold turkey.
we have like five at work and did an experiment on them yesterday. They all had my temperature at 97.2-97.4. Theyāre like seventy or a hundred dollars or something.
More details on the NY antibody results. Big racial disparity here. Some of that is driven by most of the non-white pop being in NYC, but other factors certainly at play. They havenāt released cross tabs of race and region.
Did just make a 20k hardship 401k withdrawal. Again will not hurt much long term as only 2-3% of portfolio depending on the day. But will be nice to be adequately liquid again. Hopefully donāt need it and can put it back. Or at last some of it.
Cliffs on AB studies in NY. Are they saying 10x???
F Mitch and Nicki. Nickis state gets 8:1 return and Mitchs state gets on the order of what NY net pays the feds.
Yeah I donāt think so either. But the spell might be broken a bit for some people for some things. Iām not sure Iāll go back to the insane level of Chiefs sports fandom I had. Maybe. Them winning the SB helps.
However the bigger question to me is then what is important in life? Because like many I assume, if this situation was permanent Iād be suicidal. Seems like we kind of need our expensive diversions.
Iām sorry to hear that. The article says it looks like pets that get it arenāt getting very sick, but makes sense high-risk kitties might not make it :(
People are going cold turkey but are replacing one bad habit with another. Unless theyāre using this time to grow, theyāll pick old faithful right back up once itās available.
People are not good (thatās not a dig) at manifesting their own options. We will seek out fun, exciting experiences with whatever is in front of us. If the experiences available outside the home end up being the same things we used to do, unfortunately we are picking from a menu we didnāt write.
