but how much did we lose?
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Recovered more than dying. I donât know the exact calculationmetric. I just sum the last 14 days of positives and it tracks closely.
COVID is better than the AIDS the Knicks usually have.
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Evil people NEVER FUCKING DIE
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So this story about early deaths in California:
The two in California had no âsignificant travel historyâ that would have exposed them to the virus, Dr. Sara Cody, the countyâs chief medical officer, told reporters Wednesday in San Jose.
âSomebody who died on February 6, they probably contracted that virus early to mid-January,â Jha told CNNâs âNew Dayâ Wednesday. âIt takes at least two to three weeks from the time you contract the virus and you die from it.â
If they did not contract coronavirus through travel abroad, âthat means there was community spread happening in California as early as mid-January, if not earlier than that,â Jha said.
Those two studies showing 4% antibody seropositivity in Santa Clara and LA werenât well designed but they probably shouldnât be dismissed. It would not be surprising if a large number of people have had it if community spread has been going on that long.
Maybe thereâs some large effect from temperature, but it seems to me that itâs very likely that the theories about strains with different potencies are true. The variant they have in Europe has just ripped through the continent and then got imported to NYC and poleaxed that as well. Meanwhile the west coast has had community spread for ages and have been able to bring it relatively under control. The two just donât look like the same virus.
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Letâs hypothesize that there are two US strains for a second and just concede that point so we can talk about what it means. Is that good or bad?
It seems like it might mean some people might gain immunity with only being exposed to a .2 fatality rate strain while others get a much more potent strain. That would obviously be great news.
The downsides might be a vaccine is hard or impossible to make effective to the extent we need (lots of mutations kind of like the flu) and also you may not gain immunity to the bad strain from the weaker strain.
Does that about cover it if that hypothesis is correct?
(This hypothesis could also explain the Koreans testing positive twice.)
Like you mentioned, the only other thing that I can think of is something to do with sub-freezing temps - which most Californians never experience. And very little in Seattle or Portland as well.
But that wouldnât really explain Atlanta. New Orleans Iâm willing to think could be Mardi Gras as a super-spreader event.
Could also be there are these deaths all over the country if you go back and start testing people. I can guarantee there would be some in Missouri based on the impossibility to get tested early on.
I donât know. Thereâs a big difference between responding to an opinion poll and claiming this is a democratic hoax, and actually taking your family onto the flying coronavirus deathbox to go to the Las Vegas deathbox. Iâm not sure that number of people is even 10-15 percent. Couple in the effects of so many people losing their jobs and not having money to travel anywayâŚ
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Not sure where to drop this⌠A long, pretty wonky article that goes into a lot of depth on how COVID-19 is illuminating the structural deficiencies of our society.
Disclaimer: Iâm closely related to one of the authors.
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I mean this kind of nails exactly why the whole rushing to OPEN FOR BUSINESS line is so fucking dumb anyways. People will act in their own self interest and these businesses may actually lose more money by being open than being shuttered.
If we take those antibody prevalence tests even partially seriously then it would mean that the virus is milder in effect in CA as well as apparently spreading less aggressively, so that wouldnât be a temperature thing. Also the Bay Area in January is not what Iâd call warm anyway, similar to Adelaide in winter and thatâs plenty cold enough for respiratory virus spread.
I donât buy that the entire west coast, including dense populations like the Bay Area and LA, just got lucky. Hell of a coincidence that the place in the US that got seeded out of the aggressive outbreaks in Europe also immediately had an aggressive outbreak, while earlier-arriving virus was able to just meander around the west without anyone even noticing.
I think it would be good news. Immunity isnât a binary all-or-nothing thing, there are degrees of it, you can be resistant to viruses even if not actually immune.
From what Iâve read, coronaviruses mutate much slower than influenza:
Q: Can COVID-19 mutate? Are there different strains of the virus?
A: The rate of mutation in coronaviruses â about two mutations per month â is much slower than that of the influenza virus, which averages about eight to 10 mutations per month.
Usually you need a number of mutations added together to make immunity ineffective, so I would hope that there would be cross-immunity between strains. If so, that would definitely be good news. If not, I guess it would be bad news.
What do we make of low/no restriction states like Iowa and Arkansas doing not much and then suddenly exploding the last few days. Does it just take time and a lot of negligence to hit terminal velocity in these non-dense areas?
Riding along with the speculationâ-
Itâs not necessarily true that they will be antigen unrelated. From some skimming when early 4-5 variants in China were sequenced the attachment/spike region was highly conserved (how it gets in via ace-2). No idea on this latest work may do some reading tomorrow. This area is there main target for vaccines (I think)
I think it is more likely than not that there will at least be some of not near complete cross reactivity for the antibodies against #1 to work against #2 and vice versa.
Could be a reason for 2nd infection- the second strain in is different enough to gain a toehold but I still have not heard of those secondary infections being severe. Not saying they arenât I just havenât seen one way or the other.
I do not think there are good understandings of how the other genes directly impact the host so exactly how each mutation might lead to more or less damage? For all we know something that is less hard on the lungs might be worse in another organ. I think that less damage probably means less damage overall but that is just a somewhat educated guess that whatever cell chemistry it screws with is common across the body.
Off speculation - gonna need to see a lot of evidence for the two strains theory but I understand why itâs appealing from a difference in apparent spread rate and outcomes between the coasts.
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If Trump/est. wants us to start pushing the wheel again, theyâre going to need to give us stronger assurances than âmaybe itâs just the fluâ & âyouâre already risking your life to drive here, whatâs a few more % pointsâ.
Every worker and small business owner I know that has been able to stay home is laughing at the Return notion.
If I didnât have the option to stay home, I definitely would not want everyone else coming back right now!
That makes sense. Still 300m x .2 x.6 is over 300,000 people if the whole county reached herd immunity on the Cali strain. That is a lot worse than the current worst mainstream scenerios although if it spreads slower that may also change that math and buy a lot more time to develop a treatment/vaccine.
Remind of your education/profeession. You are not a sciencebro correct?
I have a Masters in Econ (so some stats background) and a JD. Also played poker for living for a while and still profitably play.
Basically zero science so I am approaching this from pretty much a brute force data perspective (not modeling anything but observing trends and attempting to use other peopleâs models by seeing if they make sense to me)+ making conclusions based on the more reliable incomplete data that we have.
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According to that Chinese paper I posted the other day, the relevant mutations were in the spike protein that SARS-CoV-2 uses to enter cells. The result was more aggressive transmission between cells and higher viral load. A number of reports suggest higher viral load is associated with more severe disease, but since they had subjects with severe cases with the less aggressive strains, that would imply that there are other important factors.
You are doing well. My wife is a JD/MLIS (law librarian) and I get so frustrated with some legal things not making common sense. The idea that trump can gum up any legal challenge for almost forever is terrible. Seems like congress should get an express lane to tSCOTUS.
She gets offfended that Iâve been on two juries and both times the legal instructions were so vague that we just went with what we thought the law meant and went With that.
Well worth the 2.30 minutes
https://mobile.twitter.com/NelStamp/status/1252954497544052736
Full video hereâŚ
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