Do these still exclude home deaths? Does anybody have a source on daily home deaths lately? We know it’s usually 25/day and it was at 250/day for the first few weeks of April but what is it now?
Wouldn’t be the first time Italians added their own flavor twist to a Chinese creation, and the result became a worldwide sensation.
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Suckers.
They should have opened back up weeks ago while still rising.
You get shocked by this every Tuesday and you refuse to acknowledge the weekend lull.
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lol The dumbass mayor of Las Vegas is on CNN right now. She wants to open up Vegas.
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To the surprise of absolutely nobody Iowa is starting to blow and now has the latest projected peak in the country
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Those numbers are pretty much worthless until we start doing random testing of large samples of people.
I mean her whole city runs on tourism. This is going to be way worse than 08/09 for Vegas and Vegas got curb stomped in 08/09.
True but I can’t see how opening up Vegas won’t be anything other than a complete disaster.
I agree with you. I am basing that estimate on the range of results we have seen so far. One major problem we have at this point is the data sucks which makes the models suck. On top of that all antibody studies so far are flawed in one way or another which makes any conclusions from those suck.
Hmmm is she going to greet people at the doors with a smiling face and a handshake?
Would they allow everyone to wear masks at least?
I mean obviously yeah lol. But it’s a complete disaster either way at this point. In case you guys haven’t noticed I’m in full ‘party by the light of the gigantic fire’ mode. Like I’m that dude with a bottle of Tequila dancing naked just out of reach of the flames consuming civilization.
Because yeah I got mine and if I don’t get really really really drunk I’ll be sober enough to suffer from crippling survivors guilt… and then feel the urge to do something stupid like help someone who has no chance of making it and get really bummed out by them dying in my arms anyway.
Yeah I’m not in a good place today, probably best to ignore me lol.
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It’s not just vents. It’s oxygen, intubation (w/o vent) and general ICU care. In Italy they were telling 60+ to stay home - so they get none of that. It’s also people being terrified to go to the hospital for anything (which is already happening in the US in some places).
But also it’s not just about total deaths. If people can’t get vents you get a huge spike of deaths which causes a general panic. Then if that goes on a while you get chaos at the hospitals, people dying in hallways, traumatized front line healthcare workers (more than now), and bring out your dead wagons in neighborhoods.
Once pretty much everyone has had to say goodbye to a loved one over Facetime with no funeral - these bullshit protests and calls to open up will come to a screeching halt imo.
I agree people aren’t going to take being locked up for 18 months and the economy would crash. But they also aren’t going to go back to normal if the stuff I mentioned above is happening. So it’s basically two unacceptable situations - pick one - or more likely oscillate back and forth between the two until a vaccine or this thing burns itself out.
Y’all are really stretching it seeing patterns in all this:
Last Tuesday they explicitly changed how they were counting deaths, so that’s what that spike was all about. I wonder if they rejiggered he number again yesterday.
The best I’ve seen is the French study. That’s right in your range. As far as public health I think it’s a good bottom. It’s probably not below 1%
Even if it’s 10% it’s still 2^3 times to get heard immunity with a big Ro. I think we are palace for a little over 100K deaths so let’s call it a Milly dead to get herd immunity as the low end.
Seems like olds are getting the message that they are the expendable ones. Polls turning against Trump I’m that demo. If that holds we are looking at A 40 state landslide. Edit: for Trump. Putin and McConnnell will see to it.
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One thing someone said in one of these threads - R0 doesn’t care how many are currently immune.
Well if there’s two waves it does right? So let’s say this dies down to a trickle until the fall, then gets going again. If 15% in a certain place are already immune - wouldn’t that slow the R0 among the rest of the population (since 15% of the people a given spreader comes into contact with are immune)?
So it would be like if 15% of the population were just naturally immune from the beginning and couldn’t spread it. That would affect R0 right?
Russia starting to rocket up the rankings. #2 for most new cases.