COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/georgia-tennessee-and-south-carolina-move-to-reopen-as-hot-spots-emerge/ar-BB12WDUi?li=BBnb7Kz

This is going to be really, really bad. We are gonna see a southern explosion. These fucking idiots.

And the worst part is we all fucking knew this would happen.

I know Republicans won every single significant election in Kentucky in 2019 except for governor…

But given everything else Kentucky is responsible for politically it amazes me we have an Andy Beshear.

He does a press conference at 5 every day…but he is the absolute opposite of Trump. Dude had the balls to say the other day I don’t care if my lockdowns are politically unpopular. I’ll take losing my office next election if it saves lives

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That’s fucking great. He is a hero.

I fucking hate everybody.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/group-gathers-at-california-capitol-to-protest-stay-at-home-order/ar-BB12VSk6?ocid=hplocalnews

“Everybody in my family is fine. Nobody has got it,” demonstrator Charles Morris said. "I keep hearing about it, but I don’t see it. Is it even worse than the regular flu?”

Demonstrators were of all ages and included families. A majority of people were not wearing masks or practicing physical distancing.

“It’s terrible the virus is here," said demonstrator Kay Hutchison from Manteca. "But shut down the economy – the whole economy for it? Come on, let’s get real about it.”

One last thing while I am crushing on Andy Beshear. He had been pushing this graph for weeks

That is St Louis vs Philly for the 1918 pandemic. He’s been saying for weeks, hey let’s be St Louis…but see that second bump, yeah let’s not do that

(As a country we’re gonna do that)

Idk man. I live in Florida and easily half the people here are taking no precautions. A NYC like outbreak should have happened by now. There might be something to the heat and sunshine killing the virus. Basically, the south is gonna luckbox this thing.

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That St.Louis graph is almost exactly what we are looking at now, the curve is juuuuuuust starting to turn South, and we’re like “Fuck yeah, bitches! Beach party!” and its going to curve back the other way just as quick as it started downward.

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It’s 3:50am here. There are no birds

Hey, maybe I’m wrong.

I sure hope so, I really do.

But I don’t have any faith that its going to be ok.

My bad. Like The new avi btw.

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Might of been posted but here is a good link from national geographic on a bunch of different cities.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/#close

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Oh wow, ok. I hope that’s the case she she’s in the clear, hopefully with some immunity.

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Ever? It may be a year, but they’ll reopen and they’ll do so with physical cards and chips.

Holeeee shit. That’s insane. Glad she doesn’t have it now, at least.

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I’ve been doing some thinking recently about what of the changes we make for COVID will survive post-COVID. For example, the National Wine Centre here is running NWC at Home Masterclasses where they mail you 50mL test-tubes of wine and you do an online guided tasting via Zoom. My girlfriend and I are doing the Beechworth one Thursday week. They added new events and bumped the price up after interest in the first few they offered was much higher than expected. I could easily see this staying a thing in post-COVID times. There are plenty of parents out there for example, who can’t get babysitters on a Thursday night and want something interesting to do from the comfort of their homes. And everyone is going to be set up for videoconferencing now, it will no longer be something only nerds know how to do.

Seems that we’re starting to see the impact of the removal of restrictions here in the Czech Republic and it isn’t necessarily great.

While it’s true that the number of active cases is at its lowest since April 9th, that’s only because there were an abnormally large amount of recoveries yesterday. The rate of positive tests yesterday was 2.37% which was the highest it’s been in the last week. The basic reproduction number increased for the first time in three weeks.

While those numbers are still quite low (the R is still under 1), the fact is that they’re still increasing. It’d be a huge mistake for the government to continue to remove restrictions IMO. Hopefully, they reconsider doing so because it appears to be too early to try and get back to normal.


The Czech government is in the process of testing 27,000 people who have not had positive covid19 tests, recovered from covid19 or currently have covid19 symptoms to see what the spread is among the general population. If the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is large enough, they’re likely expecting some kind of herd immunity to slowly develop but if it’s a small percentage they can expect the virus to spread further.

Should provide an idea if restrictions are being lifted too quickly.

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I think pulse oximeters have been discussed before ITT, but this is an interesting article saying that a lot of COVID patients are presenting who have hypoxia secondary to pneumonia and barely even know it’s there.

A vast majority of Covid pneumonia patients I met had remarkably low oxygen saturations at triage — seemingly incompatible with life — but they were using their cellphones as we put them on monitors. Although breathing fast, they had relatively minimal apparent distress, despite dangerously low oxygen levels and terrible pneumonia on chest X-rays.

There is a way we could identify more patients who have Covid pneumonia sooner and treat them more effectively — and it would not require waiting for a coronavirus test at a hospital or doctor’s office. It requires detecting silent hypoxia early through a common medical device that can be purchased without a prescription at most pharmacies: a pulse oximeter.

Pulse oximetry is no more complicated than using a thermometer. These small devices turn on with one button and are placed on a fingertip. In a few seconds, two numbers are displayed: oxygen saturation and pulse rate. Pulse oximeters are extremely reliable in detecting oxygenation problems and elevated heart rates.

Pulse oximeters helped save the lives of two emergency physicians I know, alerting them early on to the need for treatment. When they noticed their oxygen levels declining, both went to the hospital and recovered (though one waited longer and required more treatment). Detection of hypoxia, early treatment and close monitoring apparently also worked for Boris Johnson, the British prime minister.

Widespread pulse oximetry screening for Covid pneumonia — whether people check themselves on home devices or go to clinics or doctors’ offices — could provide an early warning system for the kinds of breathing problems associated with Covid pneumonia.

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Interesting, I think Austria loosened restrictions at the same time, exactly one week ago, and new infections continue to go down so far. I guess we’ll see the effects coming through in the data of the next few days. Czech daily numbers are also a lot more noisy than Austrian ones for some reason, maybe just reporting in larger batches.

Note that we only did baby steps here, only change was that non essential shops <400sqm opened up again, but the shopping streets are basically still empty. Plus mandatory masks in shops, grocery stores have hand sanitizers at the entry before you touch any carts etc…

Those changes are pretty much the same here but some others have been done. For example, people riding bikes or jogging at the park no longer have to wear masks so long as they practice social distancing. Open-air markets have started to open but social distancing must be practiced, certain foods can’t be sold, and hand sanitizer must be provided. Of course, people who aren’t exercising still must wear masks.

For a short time after the restrictions were announced (first ones started April 6th), the numbers were still going down quite a bit. But the effects of these restrictions can take up to 2 weeks to really see in data and that’s about the point we’re at now.

Yeah, that isn’t at all what is about to happen here in the states.