The playbook was laid out for them in Puerto Rico. Underreport and attack the media when they question it.
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Story of my life amirite? But yeah, please do that. Cheers.
I literally tried to email them and tell them the their model and itâs misuse is murder.
Surprisingly I did not hear anything back.
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Imagine being a Musk stan in 2020.
More protests calling for end of lockdown across US
There are planned protests across the US as people call for the end of lockdown measures in several states.
The curbs, which include stay-at-home orders, are needed to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Facebook pages are calling for gatherings in Maryland, Wisconsin, Virginia and Pennsylvania. It is unclear how many people will attend. The four groups have more than 100,000 members combined.
Earlier this week thousands attended a demonstration in Michigan, which appears to have inspired the protests.
So far demonstrations against the shutdown have also been held in Ohio, North Carolina, Minnesota, Utah, Virginia and Kentucky.
President Donald Trump has been criticised for appearing to endorse the protests. In a series of tweets, he wrote: âLIBERATE MINNESOTAâ, âLIBERATE MICHIGANâ and then âLIBERATE VIRGINIAâ.
Re IHME they are still doing some kind of modified Gaussian (sp?) curve fitting.
Wtf. Itâs a series of exponents. Itâs simple. I have a BS in microbiology and my curve
Am I missing something or are they stupid?
Hopefully this is convergence (Same idea from 2 places). I sent them this:
First, we now use the recent trend in reported cases to inform predictions of projected deaths. To achieve this, we compute the ratio of cumulative COVID-19 deaths up to the most recent time period to the cumulative cases reported up to 8 days prior. We use 8 days because this is the median duration between cases and deaths in currently available data. We then use this estimated case-fatality ratio (CFR) for each location to estimate the number of deaths that would likely occur in the coming 8 days based on the number of cases reported in the 8 prior days. These predicted deaths are applied as a leading indicator for our death projections for the coming 8 days. We believe this improves our model predictions as it allows our death model to be informed by recent trends in confirmed cases reported. In other words, if the number of confirmed cases has been increasing in the past few days in a particular location, we want our death model to predict that the number of deaths will also likely increase 8 days later.
This information isnât going to go over well. Many (most?) people still think weâre going to wrap this thing up in another week or two. Listing dates that are 1+ months out for most of the country to even begin opening back up should lead to some interesting reactions.
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Here is a good thread on the problems you were talking about with the Santa Clara study.
https://twitter.com/AlanMCole/status/1251493794039705600
There is pretty good evidence that you and this guy are 100% correct and the study is bunk. Some have taken the estimated death rate from this study and applied it to the deaths in NYC. With the number of dead in NYC it would mean a number millions more than the NYC population would have to be infected for the Santa Clara numbers to be correct. Which probably means that they are not only bad, but really really bad.
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Our best hope is that when we relax restrictions and see another surge, states and governors take it seriously enough to band together and try to create the needed testing and tracing infrastructure. Funding it at the state level is a huge challenge, obviously.
I also think a possible effect of this that people havenât considered much is a population shift toward states that handle it well, like California. Theyâre going to be safely open for business first, probably by months. People without work but with enough savings to move will have an interesting choice - so will people with work that can move with them.
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Sorry, no straw, Iâm afraid.
It sounds like what you are implying is that maybe your body has undetectable levels of antibodies at some point after infection but then if infected again, your body will resume making antibodies. That may or may not be true, but it is ultimately what is not important.
Just because your body makes antibodies to a virus, doesnât mean those antibodies will be effective in fighting the virus. For example, HIV infection results in antibody production. But obviously those antibodies donât help the body clear the virus. They are useful because they can tell you if youâve have had HIV, but thatâs it.
In some infections, your body will make multiple different antibodies in response to a virus but only one of those is responsible for immunity.
So knowing if one has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 doesnât tell you if one has immunity. The way we would know is if we had a large group of patients that had antibodies and we observed that they didnât get reinfected. To my knowledge, that hasnât been done yet. I think right now people are assuming that antibodies will yield some immunity because that is how it works for similar viruses. Then there are further questions about how long the immunity will last.
Getting back to your original question, I think you are kind of on the right track. What I would be very interested in is if someone gets infected, recovers, gets infected again and then dies. I donât think that has been observed, and I think it is unlikely to happen. So, maybe a bit of a straw.
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Iâve got some distillery sanitizer. Iâm sure it works but it is a less viscous than the normal gel-like consistency of the standard ones. It feels like youâre squirting rubbing alcohol on your hands and rubbing it around.
Iâm sure theyâre not all the same and some make a more viscous product.
Aw man sorry that happened LOL. Youâre like the prosecution for the OJ trial explaining the science behind DNA testing to the jury instead of just saying âThis proves beyond any doubt he is guilty. The end.â
I know what you mean, BUT one of the biggest takeaways for me from the past decade+ of political insanity in the US is that there is an exploitable flaw in human psychology where people are just incredibly biased toward holding on to opinions no matter how much reality directly refutes those opinions. I dont think this is some great insight that no one else has had before, but boy oh boy have I ever adapted my perspective since, say, 2005. Of course I always kind of knew that people on average lacked intellectual curiosity. But the whole experience of 2008 laying bare flaws of fundamental market beliefs about deregulation, and then Trumpâs obvious daily flaws being handwaved away, the bar for someone admitting they were wrong about something it just orders of magnitude higher than I would have thought.
All that to say, I now understand how someone who formed a positive view of Musk years ago would be desperately clinging to that position now, regardless of reality. In fact I now expect it.
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Oh man donât tell me you once worked for Exponent.
Iâm a perfectly ok with saying there are more infections and good probability a lot more.
[spoiler]The mosquito in here will probably disagree[/spoiler].
But I wouldnât be using it to do math.
I believe the Remsdiver trials are not well controlled at least in the US. Iâm reserving judgement and keeping my fingers crossed that it holds up to further scrutiny.
Apparently, thereâs a theory going around that the coronavirus was artificially created in Wuhan while scientists there were trying to create a HIV vaccine. It appears to have originated from Nobel Prize winning French virologist Luc Montagnier who won the award for co-discovering HIV.
My wifeâs doctor basically told her she will write any note to say she doesnât have to work, because of her autoimmune disorder. And she is only a school nurse, not a hospital nurse. Weâre not sure what the next steps will be, but weâre considering using up sick time, a disability claim, telework, and retirement.
The first step was for her to contact her doctor to get buy-in on the âyou have to stay away, because you are high-riskâ idea. If that doesnât work, maybe try changing jobs at the hospital or changing hospitals altogether, in addition to the telework idea.
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Also these antibody tests must have some level of false positive rate. Even if that false positive rate is 5 percent, if we assume less than 10 percent of a given population have contracted COVID at this point, then positive antibody tests should be taken with a huge asterisk.
The virus wasnât created in a lab
A video published by the Epoch Times, that contains claims that the coronavirus was created in a laboratory, has been marked false on Facebook where it has been watched almost 70 million times.
The opening feels like a slick and dramatic Netflix documentary - thereâs a flash and crack of a lightning bolt followed by ominous music.
The hour-long video includes a theory about a lab in Wuhan creating the virus and leaking it, due to poor security.
The BBCâs science editor, Paul Rincon, says âthereâs currently no evidence that any research institute in Wuhan was the source of Sars-CoV-2â (which causes Covid-19).
Scientific analysis of the evidence shows the virus came from animals, and was not man-made.
A peer-reviewed study in March found no evidence the coronavirus had been engineered, stating that âit is improbable that SARS-CoV-2 emerged through laboratory manipulation.â
The video also refers to a study from Indian researchers that claimed to find four new sequences had been inserted into the new coronavirus, which were also present in HIV, to suggest the virus is man-made.
But that paper, never peer-reviewed, was withdrawn by its authors. And the genetic information that had matched is common in many other organisms.
âThose sequences are so short that they match with many different organisms, not just HIV. It doesnât mean theyâre related,â says Dr Jeremy Rossman, a virologist at the University of Kent.
Epoch Times, based in New York City, was started by Chinese-Americans affiliated with a religious group called Falun Gong.
The site spent heavily on pro-Donald Trump Facebook adverts last year, reported NBC News.
But in August Facebook banned it from taking out more ads for violating its policies.
Posted for references
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Just wanted to say that your contributions to the thread have been helpful. It is easy to look at some of these models and realize they are wrong for superficial reasons but seeing the deeper problems you have posted has been interesting to me.
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