COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Literally all we’ve done is close bars, nail/hair salons and gyms. Restaurants are carryout only. That’s it.

… most non-emergency healthcare, sports and entertainment, construction, travel…

DOH!

The South? Or Rust Belt?

Obesity/Diabetes are highly indicated in minority populations that have to deal with food deserts.

I’m done getting excited about single digit percentages on the weekend.

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Those Florida numbers look scary.

I’m out on a walk in the suburbs with my mom and I’ve seen about 50 people and only 1 family was wearing masks, and 1 solo runner was wearing a mask and that’s it. Costco and Vons have been 90%+ people with masks but just walking the neighborhood nobody is wearing masks which is bullshit.

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I had to go back to work this week. The job is outside and not much interaction with other trades on the site so I’m not worried. The real problem and worry I wasn’t expecting is loading and unloading my tools from the street . Just a steady stream of people jogging up and down the sidewalk and not one was wearing a mask.

Excellent article here about what the US faces in the medium term. Recommended reading.

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What are you doing?

Does anybody know of any reasons why this thing is unlikely to take the trajectory of SARS and just fade into obscurity by June? Not that I’m expecting that or looking for optimism. It just seems like everybody is assuming that won’t happen and I’m wondering if that assumption is based on any science or data.

I was talking about Iowa specifically. Construction projects are ongoing. We have no professional sports and have no travel restrictions. My wife works in surgery and they had suspended most elective surgery for the last three weeks, but have already started ramping back up. Reynolds has been a complete failure.

This is true in my wife’s school. She has a bunch of old anti-bacterial soap that she can’t use on kids because it’s banned by the school district.

Pretty awesome he keeps pushing it even though studies keep getting suspended because people are dying.

Myth 1: In 2003, SARS went away on its own as the weather got warmer.
SARS did not die of natural causes. It was killed by extremely intense public health interventions in mainland Chinese cities, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand, Canada and elsewhere. These involved isolating cases, quarantining their contacts, a measure of “social distancing,” and other intensive efforts. These worked well for SARS because those who were most infectious were also quite ill in a distinctive way — the sick cases were the transmitters, so isolating the sick curbed transmission. In Toronto, SARS resurged after the initial wave was controlled and precautions were discontinued. This resurgence was eventually linked to a case from the first wave. The resurgence confirms that it was control measures that stopped transmission the first time.

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Like iPod headphones?

SARS disappeared because it was a completely different beast. Not really contagious prior to being symptomatic, R0 wasn’t particularly high, symptoms were very conspicuous. We were able to test, trace, and quarantine SARS into extinction.

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Sorry about that. I thought you were talking nationally.

Need way more rings and tots.

Would it be possible to post a chart with more days, or is three the most you can get away with?