COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Low level call center work is the easiest work from home option. Then work your way up either by improving your knowledge of whatever the call center supports or the management side. If you are fluent in two major languages then getting a job is pretty easy but otherwise you are one of many trying to get a job.

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Iā€™m pretty sure there have been studies on zinc reducing the severity and duration of the common cold, which is at least somewhat related.

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The people who brought us Trump and Brexit? Ummmā€¦ I mean, I wouldnā€™t say theyā€™re entirely uncivilized.

But Iā€™m talking about a breakdown in supply chains, failing governments all over the world, failing industry. I didnā€™t say human beings would go extinct.

I guess itā€™s kind of neutral news, but congrats or whatever. Fun to see some designers still rocking the Copperplate Gothic, too.

I did some telemarketing in my 20s, just surveys, but it was pretty bad. Could never imagine doing sales.

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Thereā€™s a laboratory study showing zinc inhibits Covid-19 reproduction in cells. The problem is our cells donā€™t have the capability of pulling that much zinc into them.

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No, Iā€™m saying we had 100k positive tests by the end of Marchā€¦so some of those 100k will get it again in May if there is no immunity

If we get 0 cases of reinfection by the start of June, it is very likely that some immunity is thereā€¦and then each month without it means one more month of immunity length

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Still off by 30-40%

In-laws talking about Ohio protests and saying that we should have riots if the country is not opened by May 1st.

Talk about muh freedoms in their chatter.

Sigh

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Youā€™re supposed to be staying home.

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We just havenā€™t bailed them out enough times yet. Give 'em another chance.

Saw this posted on the haters site and itā€™s interesting. Some guy is using bayes and the current case data by state to estimate the current effective R in every state: https://github.com/k-sys/covid-19/blob/master/Realtime%20R0.ipynb

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Seems like a pretty rational approach. Much more maths than I was planning to do.

I would assume there is a fairly simple correlation using a slope average exponent and his R factor.

Iā€™m also uncertain to his use of ā€œunder controlā€ near or under 1. That just means a constant rate of daily infections and death, more of a steady state that is ā€œgoodā€ or ā€œbadā€ totally dependent on how the daily rate at this plateau. 100=good 10,000=bad. Etc.

Hey, so remember how the republicans in Wisconsin forced the election to go forward to try to create a low voter turnout situation to save the conservative Supreme Court justice? Yeah, he lost. Jill Karofsky Wins Wisconsin Supreme Court Race: Results, Vote Counts

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Exactly. Iā€™m not hating on Cuomo. Deaths are up all over the place. Donā€™t get mad at him because heā€™s willing to be more transparent than a state like Florida that wonā€™t even count snow birds dying.

I think if itā€™s under 1 then every case on average results in less than 1 new infection, so the total cases will start contracting. I guess right at 1 would mean that cases would hold steady.

https://twitter.com/BettyBowers/status/1249809491702489089?s=20

Thoughts and prayers.

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Over/under of how many days before the republicans cry foul about the election going forward and want a re-vote?

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Iā€™m probably missing something obvious here but Iā€™m struggling to understand what his Rt represents. I thought this was a range of values and the subscript represents the time (e.g. number of days). So what is his plot showing, what is the t in his Rt?

Good for Wiscy. Hopefully they donā€™t pay too high a price in infections. I had my fingers crossed that the long lines meant a galvanized electorate sending a message.

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