COVID-19 (2): Turns out it's going to be pretty bad actually

Trump could give local officials (like the OK gov) cover if he didn’t have doctors saying to shut things down for 2 or 3 years.

Once it’s below 1 then your restrictions are working.

Easing them will just raise it back above 1 and start it all over again.

We are all doing a partial lockdown right now; if this gets it to <1 then we are lucky we can just stay at this level the next year and not have to get stricter. But we can’t loosen up from where we are if it’s working because that means it’s working so we should keep it up.

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Having a competent expert disseminate useful information to the public is its own good, but at the same time, his absolute insistence not to implicate Trump in anything is not going to result in me shedding any tears should he be axed.

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Latest numbers from Cuomo:

Recent daily deaths
April 2: 562
April 3: 630
April 4: 594
April 5: 599
April 6: 731
April 7: 779
April 8: 799
April 9: 777
April 10: 783
April 11: 758
April 12: 671

Setting aside the issue of non-hospital deaths, which aren’t being counted in these figures, yesterday’s dip may partly be due to slow reporting over the weekend.

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What did Trump do to prevent that?

Fauci is less sycophantic than most Trump officials but still a complete disgrace. I don’t get how otherwise smart individuals don’t grasp that trying to keep both your job and your integrity is absolutely impossible in Trump World.

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That’s not going to happen though. Restrictions are being relaxed in authoritarian China. We can say that we wish the US would go on full enforceable lock-down until 2022, but it simply isn’t going to happen.

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$8.99 wth

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college administrators are shaking in their boots because its about to become obvious that students can learn just as effectively working remotely from their parent’s house as they can in lecture halls that cost $100 million to build.

Affördable pricing fröm The New Yörker.

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Not even close. Fall enrollment numbers are going to plummet because online “learning” has been a shit show so far.

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2005 Fauci makes an appearance in the clip below

https://twitter.com/chrisalbertolaw/status/1249544218063908864?s=21

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how so?

for engineering/sciences where you need to go into a lab i could see how they are being impacted,
whats stopping english/history/liberal arts from being taught remotely right now?

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I can’t imagine having strong feelings either way, but it is interesting that we’re getting a test run of the idea. If they go full online then class size, which has been increasing like crazy at state schools recently, will have virtually no limits.

I graduated with a bunch of people that really didn’t understand much of the coursework, so “people will be able to be their way through degrees” is already a problem.

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Narrator: He was still given no credence in attacking the trump administration.

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Yeah, I think the immediate response to this is a realization that online learning isn’t as big a risk to colleges as we might have thought 6 months ago. I teach in a business school and, while I’m not teaching this semester, it’s pretty clear from my colleagues’ reports that online learning is going terribly. A few reasons:

  1. There’s a performance aspect to teaching in terms of keeping students engaged and motivated, and that’s obviously not coming through online.

  2. You’re missing out on the benefits of students interacting with one another and building off of each others’ questions. It’s pretty common for a student to be lost in a lecture, but not be able to articulate exactly what the problem is, but they benefit from hearing someone else ask a clear question.

  3. There’s a networking perspective that can be really valuable, particularly in graduate school. Huge LOL at the idea of executive MBA students dropping $100k for online learning.

  4. I’m in Ohio, and a lot of our undergraduates are going back home to places where the physicaly layout and technology infrastructure is very poor. It’s easy to assume that everyone has high-speed internet; up-to-date computers, printers, and scanners; and the privacy to work when they’re back at home. But that’s not true.

At the end of the day, this claim about online learning taking over isn’t much different from Will Hunting talking about getting a graduate education for $1.50 in late fees at the public library.

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My perception during the week of March 16 was that Trump changed his tune on COVID-19 and started advocating significant social distancing. The states in the orbit of the trump cult probably took this much more seriously as a result, and made COVID-19 for a moment a less politicized issue. Blue states had already locked down largely, but this avoided a protracted period when weeks could have gone by and people would be going about their lives as a badge of tribal unity.

If Trump hadn’t been goaded to advocate for significant social distancing in mid-March, and instead stayed in denial mode, the US’s outbreak could easily be 3x worse, with NYC-like numbers throughout flyover country.

To the extent that all this mattered, Fauci can probably be credited to a large extent. However, at this point, he might have run his course–it’s clear his influence is waning.

A lot of things. There’s a vast body of social science research expounding the failures of online learning if you’re interested to dive in.

A few things off the top of my head: positive peer pressure from other students in the class, the structure of one’s day that results from physically walking to class, better discussion, better classroom management, lack of computers, thinking of the people in the room as real humans, thinking of your prof as someone who is watching and evaluating you, embodied learning (same reason reading a paper book leads to higher information retention than an e-book), feeling part of a larger school body (seeing people dressed in school colors, going to school events, etc), and on and on. And this doesn’t even take into consideration that most profs are Boomers obsessed with their area of research and know very little about the rest of the world, let alone using technology or adapting to an online environment. The classes I’ve been in and taught have been a joke so far.

The reason SLACs and other small-ball universities have moved many classes online is because such classes are massively profitable. Administrators LOVE online classes. The problem is that the quality of the product is complete trash in comparison.

Why do drinks with your friends succeed in the pub but suck on Zoom? Extrapolate from there.

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