Love the Sunday dip, hate the Tuesday reckoning.
I donât understand the math here. As soon as you stop social distancing, corona will start once again growing exponentially⌠so ⌠only solutions are some on/off quarantine strategies or a vaccine ?
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If the numbers and equations fall out of my head I may try to fit some equations this week.
(Iâm a âback of mindâ thinker. Stuff just rolls around in there for days and then I basically vomit it out into a spreadsheet).
I donât have enough first principles knowledge on the infection side but expect I can just do the math based on some Ro type value. Deaths lag and the ratio out about a week to 10 days after new infections seems to be fairy constant for a specific jurisdiction.
Of course Iâm sensing some real BS in FL and GA numbers. No way they shouldnât be seeing strong exponential growth through now.
Iâve been watching Italy death counts daily. W/o even getting into the math, I can tell itâs not fitting the models Iâve seen - all of which show a relatively steep decline after the peak. Same for new cases - Italy keeps cranking out 4k/day.
Maybe the slow decline in daily deaths is a function of having the hospital completely overwhelmed somehow - which we wonât see here.
But Italy is the only semi-locked down example we have to go on right now thatâs well past the peak. I wonder if maybe theyâre factoring in too much of a China-level hardcore lockdown into the models. Which would make sense because Italy decline rate is only becoming apparent right now.
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JFC
Just saw the NBC news piece on Easter services in LA and FL. The guy doing the faith healing in FL pushes the lady back and the guy that is catching her is wearing gloves.
You dumb motherfuckers. If heâs a goddamn faith healer you donât need FUCKING protections.
OMFG
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The âopen the windowsâ thing is something my wife and I have been âarguingâ about for seriously 23 years. Americans love open windows and moving air. Germans absolutely hate moving air. And part of the reason is because in the black death plague Europe was taught to close the windows. All Germans complain that their kidneys hurt when there is a slight breeze in their apartment. Many will even tie a blanket around their midsection to protect against the kidney destroying movement of air. There are even specialized German words to describe mini movements of air from open windows that could cause kidney or neck pain.
I know this sounds absurd, but I shit you not.
From my buddy who lives in Germany, married to a German woman. @GermanGuy - do you have any insight on this kidney thing?
I agree. I donât think weâve seen any place that has had a runaway exponential actually see any real decrease yet. Best is a plateau.
Only China- (which has serious question marks) and at a minimum had very aggressive campaign to stop transmission by immediately isolating positive people- even from their families, constant symptom checks and lockdowns multiple times what western countries have.
I have noticed in my area that pork products have been hard to come by. Meat in general has been in short supply, but pork especially.
We would all be way better off if we ate far less meat and dairy then the average American consumes. If everyone cut there meat consumption by 75% the US would be much healthier and we would have much better health outcomes and much lower health care cost
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But the economy
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Glad Iâm not the only one who is noticing that. Check out the Georgia Department of health website. They have a color coated county map of confirmed infections. The first color is marked as 1-285 cases. Obviously there is a huge difference between 14 cases and 250 cases in some random rural county.
Just speculating but by trying to down play the numbers one might guess they are trying to down play the numbers so they can open up the economy again.
The pro life party on display in full failure.
Itâs like these guys canât grasp the fact that you have nothing but bad decisions and they need to make the least worst one.
Modern Republican Conservativism is just completely fucking delusional.
The biggest issue is that the numbers in hard hit places are not accurate. So looking at curves etc. is pointless as a prediction to where those places are and how long till we are at a level where they can relax. Also Australia has less than 60 total deaths and less than 40 new infections a day and still thinks opening back up is too soon.
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Yea, I feel the same way looking at these numbers as I do when I look at GDP vs median household income numbers. Thereâs obvious and super awful conclusions to be drawn when looking at overall economic numbers where all we can say is that shit sucks for most people.
For this virus, thereâs simply no scenario where things can open up before a vaccination. No scenario. Itâs be clear since January. I donât know whatâs wrong with people.
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I mean thereâs a third options with just absolutely massive testing of anyone with symptoms and random testing of everyone else, constantly, with an incredible contact-tracing operation for those who test positive. Thatâs obviously not going to happen because weâre so fucking dysfunctional.
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Lol the gloves arenât evidence that theyâre dumb faith healers, itâs evidence that theyâre smart grifters.
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While that may certainly be true, and I myself donât eat any kind of red meat, the shutdown of pork and other meat processing facilities will create a huge dietary hole that will be difficult to quickly fill. There are already shortages of produce, tofu, soybeans, etc. This will make it worse.
Weâre long past the point where contact tracing could be a viable strategy to stop this.
Why? In a perfect world, you quarantine until you get the numbers way down. Then you crank out millions of tests a week coupled with the antibody tests, and contact tracing, and every positive, and everyone whoâs come into contact with the positive is in a two week quarantine. Youâre never fully eliminating it that way but you can sure as shit get to a point where everyone isnât cowering in their houses waiting for a vaccine.
Edit: I mean, itâs not like this is a novel theory, this is basically what South Korea has been doing.
Edit: I realize this is never happening in the US. It would require a super functional unified federal government with a valued and listened to bureaucracy run by actual scientific experts not beholden winning and election.
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My darker, more pessimistic view is that they know they can just hide the actual numbers or just make sure they donât get counted through a variety of ways and they know that they wonât face any consequences.
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It wasnât actually about vents at all, it was about hydroxychloroquine.
Thereâs a program being used in the CR called smart quarantine. What happens is that after you get diagnosed, they ask for your consent to check your GPS coordinates over the course of the previous 5 days and see who else you came into contact with. Those people are given a SMS notifying them of being in contact with somebody who tested positive for Covid19. They wonât get everybody but they say 2/3 of the people can be contacted.
I think theyâre looking to expand it across the country rather than just the single region itâs in now.
Now will the US do that? Probably not. But it is doable.
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