My boss is waiting for the MI governor to stop the stay at home order so we can go back to work the very next day
Fucking ghoul
Well re-read what I wrote as my hopes for changes that could come from this, and then ask yourself where I said I wished and hoped we could reset back to 6 months ago.
Apparently Florida is not counting COVID deaths unless you a Florida resident. Snow birds dying arenāt documented.
So, about those food supply chains being fine:
Cliffs: A plant that processes 5 percent of the countyās pork is shutting down because of the many COVID cases it has. Itās not the only one.
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You should be looking for another job ASAP, one of the few things in life Iām very very sure of is that nobody should endure an asshole boss.
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PSA - sports is happening!
Galfond challenge going down to the wire after Veni had him almost mathematically eliminated (meaning he could fold to winning the bet) this session.
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We should get some real poker now. Veni canāt play tight to the money anymore.
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Itās a tough spot because I get paid really well for a job that is really really easy for 75% of the year
Tax season gets a little busy but itās not big 4 crazy
ĀÆ_(ć)_/ĀÆ
I donāt know that we see exactly eye-to-eye, but I suspect prolly not. I am in favor of capitalism with controls because I think itās the best of a lot of bad systems. I am in favor of real equality of opportunity and equality of protection under the law and Iām not under any illusions that our system ever offered that. And Iām in favor of a basic guaranteed standard of living for all with a strong social safety net.
But I donāt know maybe I just understand that all systems suck due to greed and corruption and Iām in favor of fixing our current shitty broken system because it favors me at the moment. Like I had to play this stupid shitty game and bust my ass my entire life and Iām 10 to 15 years out from what I hoped would be a reasonably comfortable retirement and it looks like the whole shithouse could go up in flames. And I get that that is an incredibly selfish and privileged point of view. However, I think almost everybody except for the very saints among us act selfishly, greedy, and privileged if the opportunity presents itself. Which just makes me feel shittier.
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Meanwhile 9 million people die every year from starvation related issues.
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This site is one of three message boards Iām regularly on. The other two are unrelated to politics and try to avoid politics as much as can be avoided these days.
My general observation over the past few weeks is that people in general posting online seem to have much less patience now for dealing with what they perceive to be either bullshit and/or something that could be a potential danger (e.g COVID misinformation).
Iām wondering if this is due to cabin fever combined with peopleās fear that shitās gettin real.
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Letās try some maths
If we see a net decline of active infections of 20% per week after a plateau of 3 weeks starting this week.
500k known cases. Letās bump that to 800k to include the untested/asymptomatic
Letās assume we shouldnāt relax until 20k and assume the decline is log based at .8/wk
Simplified for National. State by state may be different.
April13 800k
April 20 800k
April 27 800k
May 4 800k (3 weeks plateau)
May 11 620k
May 18 496k
May 25 397k
June 1 327k
June 8 253k
June 15 203k
June 22 163k
June 29 130k
July 4 104k
July 11 83,200
July 18 66,600
July 25 53,250
Aug 1 42,600
Aug 8 34,100
Aug 15 27,300
Aug 22 21,840
10 k is mid September
.8 is pretty optimistic
As far as net active cases, Italy is still going up slowly so the idea that we are at the plateau now is way optimistic.
My gut says Thanksgiving being optimistic. If only get down to 0.9 then a year from now. We may not even be doing social D well enough to get any decline. And we know Trump will push to open things up way too early and many red states will follow.
We are doing this until there is a strong treatment/vaccine.
We have so many more cases than anywhere else. (This is one of those times I think we can throw per capita out the window)
Plateauing here means 60k deaths per MONTH! Not 60k total.
If we had shut down late Feb we could have choked this thing off at 15-20% of where it is now. I think we can easily hang 85%! of the deaths on late action (Trump).
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The problem with āequality of opportunityā is that most people are stupid.
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If I were some random blogger with a projection system I built for COVID and it happened to match what the IHME made, I would just take the freaking thing down in shame. Each day, new data shows up as a complete unexpected aberration, so the model doubles down and says an even more extreme drop will magically happen the next dayā¦
ā¦which is pretty rich, given that the modelās data is a couple days old, and you can already plot the actual outcomes against their āprediction.ā
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Yeah they need to figure out where the disconnect is. 4/12 did have a nice drop though to 431 deaths. Iām not sure why the graph always lags a day behind their source. Maybe they want for it to be finalized or something.
Several other organizations have models but donāt release them because of the large error bars. Gov. Pritzker says heās aware of IMHE, but other models he gets are more pessimistic.
The models (specifically the IMHE but basically all of them) are fucked we arenāt magically going back go normal in the next 3-6 weeks. You would have to be a Donald or HeritageNotHate level mouth breather to think otherwise.
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Air movement seems to be the key.
Could be another reason why poorer, warmer places arenāt getting nailed quite as hard - theyāve got windows open and fans going.
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And enough food is grown worldwide to feed 10 billion people (but most of it goes to livestock, biofuels and to waste).
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