Let’s stick to posting US propaganda
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I figured that. I had a hard time accepting that the denominator was the true negatives rather than the true positives.
True/false positive/negative are just what they sound like. False positive is test positive but person is negative.
Short of DS dropping in to explain (and misspell) Bayes’ rule, there is a tweet with a decent explanation of the issue up thread.
It’s maybe counterintuitive, but in a nutshell - - the smaller the prevalence (of what you’re testing for) in the whole population is, the more likely positives in the tested sample are false.
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So then, is there any reason to believe the testing is so inaccurate that if 1000/10000 people test positive only 526 people are actually positive?
Well in any case, your posts made me think about it from a different perspective rather than just assuming. And that caused me to look it up and know for sure, so that’s a good thing.
LolGenetics? or LOLmutations?
I mean maybe Trump was just guessing that New York’s CV came from Europe??
Thanks for the linkage, I’ll head over to the beef thread :)
Nah, that makes perfect sense. Tiny mistakes over a large population end up with a lot of mistakes compared to the actual number of cases if it’s something rare.
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You mean in the Santa Clara testing? I read that the test they used for that was 99.5% accurate IIRC, but there were concerns with the sample size that had established the testing proficiency.
The problems with the Santa Clara results go well beyond the accuracy of the test used.
Edit: Tested at 99.5%, and at least as good as 98.2%
Thanks for the derail derail goofy.
Man, I just can’t see how these dates can kinda be true. Are they assuming that we’re all hardcore social distancing? Apparently people can be contagious for a week+ before feeling sick.
I think you should do a long Twitter thread on the UP account explaining why their model is so terrible. Your account is fine too.
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If anyone needs toilet paper, target has it in stock for shipping. Order quickly!:
Edit: nevermind, it went out of stock already. That was really quick.
How are the LIBERATE homies doing today? Needing to feel good and seeing pictures of these people suicide themselves for Daddy is about the closest it gets these days.
Don’t go back to work
It’s not worth dying.
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To add to this, you state ‘wife can get job back after’ and there may be a few vacancies (in the region) for obvious reasons (to not be too grim)
My mom too - although she never liked Trump anyway but I think voted for him because of the chopping up little babies thing.
She swears she’s not voting for him this time but I have my doubts. Rs can always hammer on abortion for a few months leading up to the election and get her back in the fold.
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No. Our boss was a statistical expert witness for the defense in lawsuits - mostly auto and tobacco.
I feel like the main impact temperature might have is on residual transfer outdoors.
If someone breaths on you that is infected and it is warm out, I suspect you are still getting sick.
If someone coughs on a railing outside the virus will expire more quickly in the heat.
Please note I am NOT a Mr. Science.
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No one really knows yet if it’s common to get C19 just from breathing in someone else’s breath droplets, although it sure does seem likely for that high of an R0.
The official line seems to still be that you get it primarily from touching surfaces.