Rereading, I’m not certain he meant 4 separate insertion mutations, I was going off this:
Fang’s theory is that natural mutations of viruses will only result in small, singular changes, and it is suspicious to see a naturally mutated virus suddenly take on four amino acids.
Edit: Also, googling for another article, I got this:
Researchers zeroed in on that hot spot. They knew from SARS that the S1 parts of the viral spikes hug the ACE2 receptor at a region of five amino acids (protein building blocks). Even though four of the amino acids differ in COVID-19, they are similar in size and charge to their counterparts in SARS.
So maybe they are substitution mutations. lol trying to decipher media reports on science ever, I guess.
Jet fuel cannot melt steel beams! I generally really like your posts, but what you are doing is getting into the details after silently making a bunch of background assumptions and then suggesting how the details are not explainable.
Like, can’t it just be a similar virus with 4 mutations from a common ancestor 10k years ago? We see that with tons of viruses. How many man made viruses are known? Oh, none. Well, I guess that makes it a 50/50, right? I mean, what else to expect from the Red Menace?
People avoiding getting medical attention because of the cost will do wonders to help spread this virus.
Actually the USA may have more problems containing this than Europe because people have this mindset that they can’t miss work when they are sick. Many can’t afford to go to the hospital and can’t afford to take time off.
I’m in so cal with 10 million people in a 50 mile radius and go to a 25 person workout class like 5 times per week, where people sweat and cough and touch their mucus filled noses. I’m definitely getting this thing. Hell, I’ve gotten two badish colds since Jan 1 and that’s two more than the prior 3 years. Here’s hoping I lose 20 pounds while sick while managing not to die.
Have a regular physical on Friday. I may bug the doctor, but I bet she’s already tired of people asking her about coronavirus.
This is going to be what a lot of countries end up doing. This thing is crazy hard to contain and that means the amount of economic harm you have to do to even try to stop it is pretty extreme… and since every country that takes this line becomes a large reservoir for the virus that creates damn near infinite vectors for its spread into other countries I strongly suspect this is going to be physically impossible to contain or prevent.
The fact that it only seems to really kill the very sick and elderly is going to turn this into the flu in terms of response basically. Human civilization is just going to tank this until the vaccine comes out. I’ve already told the older people in my life that it’s time to go to the mattresses and isolate themselves from human contact for quite a while. Hopefully they listen.
This, or something very much like this, already came out about a month ago in a non peer reviewed paper. (Maybe on Feb 1 as I clearly remember talking about it at a family gathering on that day.) It was in the news for a day or two and then fizzled out. My assumption was that most scientists thought it was perfectly plausible that this happened in nature. I believe wookie gave his thoughts on it in this thread.
Something I’ve been wondering about: Are we certain a vaccine can be developed for this? Some strains of the common cold are coronaviruses and we don’t have vaccines against those. Is that only because they are mostly harmless and too many different strains to even bother trying?
I live in Glendale, CA, and my office is in metro LA on the edge of Koreatown. I go to 3+ AA meetings a week all over the LA area where we all shake hands, hold hands, and hug constantly. I’ve been carrying hand sanitizer with me and opening doors with a handkerchief I keep in my pocket for a few weeks, but I definitely think it’s just a matter of time. I also have some OCD/BFRB stuff and touch my face constantly - really trying to work on that right about now!
Had my first coronavirus anxiety related insomnia for a bit last night, then this morning I find out some guy (60) just died of it in Paris (my hometown). He had been ill since at least Feb 12th and hadn’t travelled to any at risk areas. They didn’t know it was COVID-19 till yesterday. So that’s good.
My Dad is in his 70s and had a heart attack late last year, he’s doing well now and just got the all clear last week to go back to work as a hospital porter. I will be phoning him shortly to say please do not go back to work, but I expect he’ll tell me to not worry. I may worry nonetheless.
So I assume everyone at the CDC is getting shit canned tonight when Trump goes on TV and says everything’s great, nothing to worry about, buy the dip, etc, and the scientists refuse to play along.
