Among the new cases discovered Friday were a 70-year-old man in Hubei who was confirmed as infected after 27 days in isolation, while a man in Jiangxi province tested positive after 14 days of centralized quarantine and five days of isolation at home. On Thursday, authorities reported that a man in Hubei had tested positive for coronavirus after what appeared to be a 38-day incubation period with no symptoms.
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Ok round up all those people from the ships that tested negative.
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50 different nationalities were on that ship.
Damn it’s going to suck when every hospital in the world is overwhelmed with patients, assuming that the “10% of infected require hospitalization” metric is true.
All the current figures based on % of infected patients will have to be revised downwards if the number of infected patients has been far higher than we thought, though.
That includes the current estimates for the mortality rate.
Where are you hearing 10%? Highest I’ve heard is 2%, with the caveat that we don’t know how many people get infected and aren’t showing up at hospitals. All of the figures should be taken with a grain of salt.
2% is the mortality rate. He’s talking about hospitalization and I’ve seen higher than 10.
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Yeah, this. I can’t remember where I read it, and it wasn’t sourced so there was no way right now to know for sure if 10% is accurate. But I read that bad flu strains usually have about a 1% hospitalization rate. So a big problem (which is playing out in Wuhan right now) is that in hard hit areas the hospitals get completely overwhelmed. Which could play into the higher death rate we see inside China now versus places with much smaller numbers of infected people at the moment.
I haven’t seen any good info on time for patients to go from infected to critical to death. It seems like it takes quite awhile to kill, which would make comparing current deaths to current infections pointless.
I don’t think anybody is comparing current deaths to current infections and calling that the mortality rate.
Info I’ve read is about 2% mortality inside China, 1% outside. 3 to 4 weeks to death. 10% hospitalization. R0 somewhere between 1.5 to 4.5. All of these are estimates and could be wildly off due to lack of good information.
This is obviously a major propaganda coup for the far right who will use it to argue against free movement of people and immigration.
If you compare current deaths to infections 3 weeks ago, it works out to over 16% mortality. So it’s either much deadlier than the 1-2% or infections are wildly underreported. Probably more of the latter.
Yeah, I was trying to do something similar a couple of weeks ago when I first heard of the roughly 3 weeks to death metric, and came to a similar conclusion. And just recently we have the example of 18 infections in Iran with 4 deaths. Infections are clearly way under reported.
Yeah. I can imagine that this will have long term ramifications on policy in some countries. A few places in eastern Europe at the top of my list
You wouldn’t expect to just yet. You could have a dozen small clusters (20 to 100 infections) just starting to ramp up. That wouldn’t have an impact on national flu and pneumonia stats.
In 2 months tho…
Disaster movies fooled us into thinking this would happen so fast. But these days information travels much faster than the virus. So we all get to watch this slow motion train crash for the next 6 months before it really starts to impact us personally.
That said. My filipino girlfriend in Australia has reported an uptick in small racist shit for her and her chinese/Vietnamese friends
This talk of like two-week incubation periods is very unsettling to me. Shook levels rising.
It was already thought to be 2 weeks, now they are thinking it’s longer.
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I’m repeating myself here, but you hear people talk about incubation time, remember that it’s just a best guess and there’s a lot we don’t know about this virus.
“There’s a lot we don’t know” isn’t all that reassuring!
Official number of deaths in Iran went to 5 today, but this says 6 already. And it reports a lot of other disturbing things.