The short answer is no one knows - but if you take Corona virus as a passable example for what we see in the flu (assuming no vaccine, which we have for the flu) - the majority of the population may get infected, but only a smallish % get REALLY sick. Once they recover, they’re fine and no longer infectious - they’re immune. A lot of people are asymptomatic, or close to it - which is a problem because they’re not getting quarantined because they’re not obviously sick, even if they’re spreading the virus. People may have an indolent course - they don’t die fast enough or get sick enough before they have the chance to pass along whatever virus they are going to spread to another person.
And in proving then even Trump may be right about something, the flu (and probably half a dozen other respiratory virus infections) clearly are seasonal - and as dumb Donnie referenced Corona may drop off once we get out of winter and into spring. Why this happens I have no idea, but we’ll go months without seeing the flu/RSV/hand-foot-and-mouth patients, and they’re suddenly all over the place, and a couple of months later they’re gone until the next season. Note that Corona may elect to not play by those rules.
I don’t and that’s pretty clear from my posts. That’s why I’m wondering why there’s a good chance, based on similar outbreaks, that this dies off without infecting a sizable population here.
I was thinking about this. It seems weird that it would die off seasonally. If it’s just temperature, well it’s a big planet with a lot of temperatures. But, “we have no idea” is a perfectly cromulent answer.
This seems to be much more infectious than some of the ones that get quarantined and die off. Seems to me like there is a small chance we don’t get hit hard. I think the best hope is that this slows in the warmer months and we have a vaccine before next winter. But that seems overly optimistic based on what I’ve read.
Like it’s so sensitive to the number of people with immunity or some other factor that a tiny change that’s hard to explain is enough to be the difference between pandemic and not?
Also - there’s no particular reason that I’m aware of that Corona, in another change, could to “decide” to not result in long-term immunity - RSV and croup hit kids repeatedly (although generally repeat episodes make the kids less sick.) Which is why they’re pushing so hard for a vaccine.
Like maybe the washing your hands and not touching your face is what makes the difference between this virus dying off (or going back to it’s natural reservoir) and pandemic.
Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist thinks uncontrolled it could affect around 2/3 of the world’s population.
Some of those won’t even know they’ve got it, like the German guy who was tested after coming into contact with an early carrier and was shocked to be found positive as all he’d experienced was a very mild sore throat that only lasted a day.